Jackson Kowar – Todd Fertig Writes http://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:22:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: KC needs key prospects to make progress http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-kc-needs-key-prospects-to-make-progress/ Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:22:00 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1524 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 21 – you can read it by clicking here.

The Kansas City Royals need help. As they limp toward 100 losses, the deficiencies of the big league club are on full display.

With new ownership on the horizon, the direction of the team remains to be determined. There is but a small core with the big league club at this moment that appears to be set – Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier and Brad Keller. Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifield could be long term fixtures, or they could be trade commodities. That’s about it. Everything else seems to be unknown.

But what the Royals do have is a rapidly improving farm system that in just the last couple of weeks claimed multiple minor league championships. These titles aren’t meaningless to the franchise. In the years prior to their 2015 championship, the Royals placed a lot of emphasis on bringing up a wave of talent that won at each level as it progressed through the minors.

A new wave of talent just claimed championships in two A-ball leagues, a rookie-ball league, and in the Dominican developmental level.

The franchise is winning at the developmental level, and it is suddenly stocked with pitching. The Royals went all in on college pitching in the 2018 draft, and that investment may start paying off sooner, and with greater returns, than even the Royals could have hoped.

One thing is certain, however, about baseball prospects: few of them pan out. The Royals know as well as anyone that turning pitching prospects into productive big leaguers is not easily accomplished. The raft of studs on the farm today may not turn into a good pitching staff in the future. But for now, the Royals have an enviable collection of talent, and almost all of it came via the 2018 draft.

Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar progressed to Double-A midseason and therefore were not part of the minor league playoff hunt. But their performance this season validated the Royals’ use of first round draft choices on them in 2018. Singer and Kowar, former teammates at the University of Florida, split the season between High A Wilmington and Double A Northwest Arkansas. Singer posted a 12-5 record and a 2.85 ERA between the two stops, while Kowar went 7-10 with a 3.52 ERA.

Joining them at the top of prospect lists are fellow 2018 draftees Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic. The four-headed monster might start next season at Double-A, and an extreme optimist could envision it as four-fifths of the Royals starting rotation in the very near future. Lynch went 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA at Wilmington and is rated the eighth best left-handed pitcher in the minors. Bubic went 11-5 with a 2.23 ERA between the two A-ball clubs and saw his stock skyrocket.

Casual followers of minor league prospects should keep their eyes trained on this foursome. But that’s just the beginning. The A-ball teams were particularly flush with pitchers who excelled in 2019. Integral to Wilmington’s championship were two more 2018 draft picks, Jonathan Bowlan and Austin Cox. Bowlan went 11-5 with a 3.14 ERA between the A-ball teams, including a no-hitter, while Cox also split the season between the A-ball clubs, going 8-6 with a 2.76 ERA.

Guiding Lexington to its title were Carlos Hernandez, who rebounded from injuries to go 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA, and 2018 picks Zach Haake and Jon Heasley.

As encouraged as fans should be about the pitching prospects the Royals have collected, they should be just that concerned about the position prospects they were heralding a year ago. Wilmington was a deathtrap for hitters in 2019, snaring several hot prospects in disastrous seasons. 2017 first round pick Nick Pratto and second round pick M.J. Melendez crashed upon their promotion to Wilmington. Pratto finished with a .191 average and just nine homers in his sophomore season, while Melendez was even worse, hitting .163 with nine homers. Shockingly, slugging outfielder Seuly Matias was even worse in his debut at Wilmington. After crushing 31 homers in just 94 games in Lexington last year, Matias managed just a .148 average with four homers in 57 games before being shut down with injuries.

The Royals preached patience and calm with these three, but the organization will have to decide whether to promote them to Double-A despite their failures or send them back to the hitters hell of Wilmington.

Should first baseman Pratto, catcher Melendez and outfielder Matias rediscover their potential, they form a nice trio to team with 2019 first round pick shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. Evaluations of Witt’s talent are through the roof, but he scuffled a bit in his debut in the rookie leagues, hitting just .262 with one homer in 37 games. The Royals can’t afford for many of these top draft choices to fail.

The organization’s fourth rated prospect, outfielder Khalil Lee had a decent year at Double-A, hitting .264 with eight homers and an eye-popping 53 stolen bases. The 21-year-old will be brought along slowly, but is the major league club’s best hope to improve its lackluster outfield.

Three other athletic outfielders are making their way through the lower ranks. Kyle Isbel battled injuries and put up lackluster numbers similar to the others trapped in the Wilmington black hole. Michael Gigliotti returned from knee surgery to keep his name in the prospect ring. And forcing his way into the conversation was Brewer Hicklen. A bit of a late bloomer, the 23-year-old Hicklen had perhaps the best season of any position prospect in the Royals system, batting .263 with 14 homers and 39 stolen bases for Wilmington.

These hitting prospects are light years away from the major leagues and cannot afford to scuffle the way they did in 2019. With such a drastic upgrade in their stable of pitchers, the Royals now desperately need to upgrade the talent around the diamond. They won multiple minor league championships almost entirely upon strength on the mound.

Witt may well develop into a star. But Kansas City needs its other prospects to get things going with the bat. Continued failure by Pratto, Melendez and Matias would be disastrous. And by means of the draft, trades and international signings, the club needs to add more top positional talent that doesn’t stall out in the minors.

 

 

 

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Royals Rundown: As trade deadline approaches, Kansas City looking to sell http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-as-trade-deadline-approaches-kansas-city-looking-to-sell/ Tue, 16 Jul 2019 03:25:03 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1464 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 13 – you can read it by clicking here.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look to be sellers as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, hoping to improve their farm system by trading away players who aren’t a long-term fit.

That means that, for the second year in a row, the team that finishes the season in Kansas City will look dramatically different from the one that started it.

While many more losses will follow the trade deadline, many interesting things could take place in Kansas City, things which hopefully will eventually lead to the resurgence of the franchise.

Which deals get made?

Last year the Royals were able to move players much more quickly than they have this season. By this time last year, the Royals had flipped Jon Jay and Kelvin Herrera for a considerable return. They would soon add more prospects by trading Mike Moustakas. And they would sell Terrance Gore and Lucas Duda, and trade Drew Butera.

This year’s trade market has been cold and the Royals have yet to make a single trade of significance.

They have several players under contract beyond 2019 that they would love to move if the right deal presented itself, starting with Ian Kennedy and possibly including Alex Gordon.

But they are more desperate to get anything in return for the guys with expiring contracts. Most likely to be traded are pitchers Homer Bailey and Jake Diekman and outfielder Billy Hamilton. Martin Maldonado and Gore might have some value somewhere. What the Royals can get in return may not be franchise altering, but anything helps.

Second round of auditions

Losing seasons open windows of opportunity for players trying to prove themselves. When a team no longer cares about wins and losses, it can patiently permit lenghty auditions, trying to find out which players are building blocks and which are merely stop-gaps.

Unfortunately, a few guys who looked like building blocks last season took a big step back this year. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn and outfielders Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio all floundered in 2019, but may get a callback. Each is benefiting from a lack of other options at his position within the organization.

A year ago Cheslor Cuthbert’s career appeared to be dead. But injuries and O’Hearn’s failure gave the 26-year-old another shot at the big leagues, and he’s been at least passable. With Hunter Dozier locking down third base, Cuthbert needs to show he can handle first base and be a run-producer. O’Hearn may return to KC and take some of Cuthbert’s playing time down the stretch. But the opportunity is there for Cuthbert, and he needs to seize it.

Getting an even longer look have been the pitchers at the big league level. With so few big-league quality starting pitchers, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis will receive infinite number of chances to figure things out. Glenn Sparkman may not have as long a leash, as the Royals may try some other options. But if Bailey gets dealt, someone will have to start. Eric Skoglund, suspended for the first half of the season, will probably get another look.

Ready for openers?

With almost no starting pitchers in Triple-A pushing for a promotion, the Royals may experiment with using an “opener” rather than a starter. This strategy is gaining acceptance around the league, and the Royals look ready to give it a try. They’ve been toying with it with flame-throwing Josh Staumont and reclamation project Kyle Zimmer at Triple-A. Both guys have more than enough talent and just need to find the right fit. Opening may be just the ticket to finally tap their ability.

It’s finally Bubba Time!

Fans finally have the long-awaited debut of Gardner-Edgerton product Bubba Starling. At long last, the center fielder was healthy and hitting enough to be called up from Omaha. The Royals held him back, probably making sure his success is sustainable, and trying to get anything they can in exchange for Hamilton.

At worst, Starling is essentially a copy of Hamilton – a great defender who can’t hit. But Starling’s newfound success at the plate provides hope he’s finally ready to thrive in KC. His immense popularity on the Kansas side of the city will provide a boost at the box office, if nothing else.

Late season promotions

Expanded big league rosters and minor-league playoff races always cause a lot of player movement in September. Trades will open roster spots in Kansas City even earlier. The reshuffling the last two months of the season will provide lots of opportunities and some indication of who the Royals see as pieces of the future. Aside from Staumont and Zimmer, guys to watch for in KC will be pitcher Richard Lovelady, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and jack-of-all-trades Erick Mejia.

Movement in the minor leagues will be just as interesting. Will top prospect Khalil Lee get a promotion to Triple-A? Will stud pitchers Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch successfully adjust to Double-A? And will uber-prospect Bobby Witt, Jr., currently at the Arizona rookie league, get promoted to a full-season club? Witt is already 19 and should be ready for the challenge.

Soler’s historic chase

Jorge Soler is on pace to hit 42 home runs. That would easily surpass Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals bear the embarrassment of being baseball’s only team without a 40-homer season in their history. With home runs flying out of parks at a record pace league-wide, the accomplishment might seem somewhat tainted. But juiced balls and a tighter strike zone aside, Soler’s emergence has been a much-needed breakthrough for the power-starved Royals.

Another strong finish

Despite a horrendous overall record, the 2018 Royals finished with a flourish, inspiring great optimism for 2019. But the new season started with a thud, and too many guys – Keller, Junis, O’Hearn, Jorge Lopez – took a step back. It would be refreshing if some prospects could infuse some energy into the club once again this year. Wins and losses won’t matter, but a recovery of some hope could still be attained down the stretch.

 

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Royals Rundown: Talent abounds in Kansas City’s farm system http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-talent-abounds-in-kansas-citys-farm-system/ Mon, 08 Apr 2019 02:41:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1317 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on April 6 – you can read it here.

The Kansas City Royals major league season got off to a great start. But quickly reality set in – this team won’t be very good.

Rather than focus on that sad fact, however, Royals fans have somewhere to look for hope. The truly important baseball played this year will be at Wilmington, Delaware, and Lexington, Kentucky, not in Kansas City.

The Royals are doing their best to find a winning combination to put on the field this season. But more importantly, they are trying to ascertain which of the current Royals could play on a playoff contender in 2021 and beyond. Brad Keller and Adalberto Mondesi are definitely keepers. Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez might still be around. Others are auditioning for roles.

But the Royals’ true hope for glory is still in the minors. A couple of solid drafts and some trades for prospects have restocked the developmental system. So while you grin and bear the current reality, keep an eye on the following farm teams, which kicked off their seasons on Thursday.

Omaha Storm Chasers: Several players starting the season for the Triple-A affiliate were only held off the big league squad to retain their service time for a more opportune window. And more than a handful will see time in Kansas City this season.

The big league Royals bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. The Royals elected to start the year with some veteran acquisitions in order to allow a few key prospects to activate their major league service time a little further down the road. But that time will come soon. Richard Lovelady should be an instant upgrade when he’s called up. The Royals might also find some pitching help in Scott Blewett, Josh Staumont and Arnaldo Hernandez.

Nicky Lopez is big-league ready and just waiting for the right time to step into the Royals infield. (If current Royals utility man Chris Owings doesn’t get things going, the right time may come sooner than later.) Humberto Arteaga is in the same boat and plays essentially the same position as Lopez. There will be room for one, if not both, in Kansas City soon.

Former big leaguers Jorge Bonifacio and Brett Phillips have got to prove they can hit in order to be reunited with the Royals. Meanwhile Bubba Starling appears ready to finally realize his immense potential, and a call to KC should happen later this year.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals: Most of the attention at Double-A will be on outfielder Khalil Lee, the Royals’ #2 prospect. He combines elite-level speed, power and athleticism, and just needs more polish. Playing in Lee’s shadow, but not to be overlooked, is Junction City native Nick Heath, who possesses the type of speed that plays well in Kansas City.

The Naturals’ catcher, Meibrys Viloria, is so advanced defensively that when the Royals were in need of a backup last season, Viloria was promoted from the Single-A level all the way to the big leagues. He’s starting the season in Double-A just to make sure he gets to play every day.

Wilmington Blue Rocks: This is the team to watch. The high-A affiliate of the Royals will be bulging with top prospects. In fact, if you want to see what the 2022 big league Royals will look like, just check out a Blue Rocks team photo. Eleven of the Royals’ top 30 prospects, including six of the top seven, started the year in Wilmington.

In last June’s amateur draft, the Royals loaded up on college pitching prospects, and now those elite prospects are all clustered in Wilmington. The Royals’ top rated prospect, Brady Singer, will front a rotation that includes Daniel Lynch (the #4 rated prospect) and Jackson Kowar (#7). That trio may soon make up three-fifths of the Royals’ big league rotation.

MJ Melendez, the Royals’ #3 prospect, will share catching duties with Sebastian Rivero, another prized backstop. Nick Pratto (#5) is at first base.

Seuly Matias, who clubbed 31 homers last season, headlines the outfield as the #6 prospect. He’s joined there by Kyle Isbel (#10), Brewer Hicklen (#13) and Blake Perkins (#23).

The Royals don’t always leave players at Wilmington for the entire season. If the top prospects excel at high-A, they may find themselves fast-tracked to Northwest Arkansas, bringing them one step closer to the big leagues.

Lexington Legends: This pitching staff merits close watch this summer. The rotation is packed with potential in Chris Bubic (#9), Austin Cox (#22) and Jonathan Bowlan (#29), and should soon be bolstered by Carlos Hernandez (#11), Yefri Del Rosario (#12), Yohanse Morel (#20) and Janser Lara (#30), who stayed back in extended spring training. That means seven of the Royals’ top 15 pitching prospects should pass through Lexington this summer.

The most intriguing member of the staff, however, will be Ashe Russell. Picked in the first round of the 2015 amateur draft, Russell ran into off-the-field problems and disappeared for more than a year. But he resurfaced in the Royals’ training program last summer and may finally be ready to realize his potential.

In the field, the Legends will feature the Royals’ #13 and #24 prospects in outfielder Michael Gigliotti and shortstop Jeison Guzman.

Prospect watching can provide a lot of relief during the lean years. Watching from afar as players like Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and the late Yordano Ventura climbed the minor league ladder made all the Royals’ losing prior to 2013 a little more bearable. The same will be true during the current rebuild.

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One Year Later: Friday – Lorenzo Cain http://toddfertigwrites.com/1185-2/ Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:00:34 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1185 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Wednesday’s look at Mike Moustakas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Thursday’s look at Jason Vargas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Friday – Lorenzo Cain, CF: This one hurts.

You could argue that the Royals quickly adjusted to the departure of Hosmer and Vargas, and they brought back Escobar and Moustakas to start 2018. But they let Lorenzo Cain go. And there was just no way they could immediately replace what Cain meant to the team.

Cain was the 2015 Royals best player. His 7.2 WAR total, fourth best among position players in the American League, was by far the highest on the team. Losing him for much of 2016 is a big reason the team dropped off. He was back amongst the best in the game with a 5.3 WAR total in 2017.

The Royals certainly knew they had no one capable of taking up that kind of slack, but there was nothing they could do. Resigning a 32-year-old with a history of injury just didn’t make sense. So they bid Cain farewell and braced for the drop off.

There was a glimmer of misguided hope that minor leaguer Bubba Starling would step up and take some of Cain’s playing time. But Starling doesn’t look like he’ll ever fulfill his immense potential. So the Royals scrambled, playing Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield some in center while searching for other options.

Playing Abraham Almonte in center was a waste of time. But the short employment of Jon Jay in the outfield did exactly what was intended. Jay played well enough in the first couple of months to be traded for prospects.

Next up, the Royals tried Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin, both formerly prized prospects with other teams. And finally, KC acquired Brett Phillips in a trade for Moustakas.

Each of the three has some potential. Herrera has speed, can play numerous positions, and is a switch hitter. Goodwin may have the best bat. And Phillips has an incredible arm to go along with speed. None of the three, however, will ever remind anyone of Cain.

Cain brought the kind of well-rounded performance to the Milwaukee Brewers that led the Royals to two World Series. This year, he was second in the National League in WAR with 6.9, and second in defensive WAR with 2.4. He was the perfect investment for a Brewers team loaded for a postseason run.

He was not, however, the perfect investment for a team in rebuild mode. And the Royals were smart to let him go. He made $14 million in 2018 and will see his salary escalate by a million each of the next four years. He probably won’t be worth $18 million as a 36-year-old in 2022. The Royals will have better ways to spend that kind of money.

The one good thing that came from letting Cain walk was a compensation pick in the 2018 amateur draft – pick 33. The Royals gladly snatched up college pitcher Jackson Kowar. The righty was instantly rated the Royals’ fourth-best prospect and impressed in a half season of A-ball.

The Royals must see Cain as the past, and Kowar as their future. They may not find a centerfielder as productive as Cain for a long time. The search for someone to do the job adequately is underway.

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Multitude of changes have KC looking up in second half of season http://toddfertigwrites.com/multitude-of-changes-have-kc-looking-up-in-second-half-of-season/ Tue, 18 Sep 2018 00:44:23 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1146 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept 15 – you can read it here.

The Royals have essentially played two seasons in 2018. The first season, the disastrous one in which a group of veterans put up a 27-68 record at the All-Star break, had people worried they might just be the worst team in history (seriously!)

Then they played a second season, going for youth and speed. That team has gone 24-28 since the All-Star break and bolstered the minor league system at the same time.

Some of the choices made by Dayton Moore over the past nine months that produced such a dramatic switch were forced upon him by financial realities. Some were so obviously necessary (like moving Alcides Escobar aside for Adalberto Mondesi) that fans couldn’t figure out what took so long. And a few took serious nerve and ingenuity by Moore.

The list is long of players Kansas City jettisoned. Here’s how those moves are working out so far.

Changes prior to the 2018 season:

Eric Hosmer – The Royals allegedly tried hard to entice Hosmer to return to Kansas City with a hefty contract. Hosmer ultimately opted to sign with the San Diego Padres, and beloved as Hosmer was in Kansas City, the Royals lucked out on this one.

The Royals went with stopgap Lucas Duda and rookie Hunter Dozier at first base. But in the past month, Ryan O’Hearn has asserted himself as the first baseman of the immediate future. Hosmer has underperformed on his enormous contract with 16 homers and 62 RBI while playing essentially every day. O’Hearn has 10 homers and 24 RBI in less than one-fifth as many at bats. Hosmer’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total is just 0.9, while O’Hearn’s is already 1.2.

Lorenzo Cain – The Royals were loath to let Cain depart, but they feared his age and injury history made him a poor investment for a rebuilding team. They will ultimately be proved right, but it comes as no surprise Cain is tearing up the National League. He’s currently batting .313 with a .403 on-base percentage. In terms of WAR, Cain is the second best position player in the National League.

In Cain’s absence, the Royals have employed several options in centerfield, primarily Jon Jay (more on him later). None was a permanent fix, and current frontrunner Brett Phillips, acquired midseason, may not be either.

As compensation for letting Cain and Hosmer depart via free agency, the Royals received additional draft picks (in the 33rd and 34th slot) in the 2018 draft. By picking college pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch, the Royals may have added two pieces of their starting rotation of the very near future.

The Royals wouldn’t have been a good team in 2018 had they resigned Cain, and they were right to rebuild without him. But there is no doubt, they would be a much better team today with him. The same can’t be said about Hosmer.

Jason Vargas – The Royals let their top starting pitcher from 2017 walk, judging correctly that the 34 year old’s 18-11 record was unrepeatable. They were right. The New York Mets are paying Vargas $6 million for disastrous output. They are on the hook for $16 million more over the next two seasons, and the results are likely to get worse.

Vargas’ rotation spot was handed to Jakob Junis, and the 25-year-old looks like a building block of the future.

Brandon Moss – For some inexplicable reason, the Oakland A’s were willing to trade two minor league pitchers for Moss and pitcher Ryan Buchter. Moss’ skills had slipped to the point he was released by Oakland in spring training, and no other team wants him.

In exchange for Moss, the Royals acquired Heath Fillmyer and minor leaguer Jesse Hahn. Fillmyer has made some good starts in Kansas City, and Hahn, injured all of 2018, still holds some promise.

By not wasting playing time on Moss, the Royals have been able to audition outfielders like Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin.

Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander – This one hurts when you look just at 2018. The Royals traded these two essentially to rid themselves of Soria’s contract. But Alexander was a valuable young piece of the bullpen and he’s been very good for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Soria was rejuvenated with the Chicago White Sox.

The Royals received two quality prospects in Trevor Oaks and Erick Mejia, but neither is setting any worlds on fire.

The Royals shipped out a long list of pitchers after 2017, including Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Peter Moylan, Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood. The good news is the Royals are giving all those innings to young pitchers who may be good in the future.

Changes during the 2018 season:

Jon Jay – Jay was very good in a short stint with the Royals, but he was signed expressly to flip for prospects. Eighteen-year-old Elvis Luciano has loads of talent and time to develop it. Gabe Speier is an organizational filler who may reach the big leagues eventually.

Kelvin Herrera – It was essential not only that Herrera be traded, but that it be done at just the right time. Score a big win here for Moore. Herrera was near perfect for half a season in Kansas City. He was dealt for three prospects and promptly went into decline.

The return for Herrera has been solid. Kelvin Gutierrez, a minor league third baseman who is exceeding expectations at Double A. Depending on how Dozier fares, Gutierrez may be the Royals third baseman of the future. Blake Perkins is a talented outfielder who needs time to develop. Another 18-year-old named Yohanse Morel was thrown in and may be a player eventually.

Mike Moustakas – Moustakas has been good for the Milwaukee Brewers since being dealt on July 27 – six homers and a .277 average. But trading him was the only choice.

The Royals hoped to rake in the prospects for Moose. They may not have done that, but pitcher Jorge Lopez nearly pitched a perfect game last week, and has been ok in his other five starts. Brett Phillips has loads of skill, but will have to learn to hit. Like Lopez, his talent is intriguing.

Having won 13 of 19 since August 24, the new season is inspiring hope. Like manager Ned Yost said Friday night, “It’s starting to get fun again.”

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New wave of talent rising through KC’s ranks http://toddfertigwrites.com/new-wave-of-talent-rising-through-kcs-ranks/ Mon, 10 Sep 2018 04:10:10 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1143 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 8 – you can read it here.

The Kansas City Royals went 71-91 in 2011. While that sounds great in comparison to the current iteration, it was at the time considered by most to be just another rotten season by an inept franchise.

But anyone really paying attention might have noticed that on May 6 of that year, a rookie named Eric Hosmer was promoted to the big leagues at just 21 years of age.

Just a few days later, on May 18, Hosmer was joined by 22-year-old pitcher Danny Duffy. The two knew each other well, having played together at nearly every level of the minor leagues.

On June 11, 22-year-old Mike Moustakas joined the party. Then on August 10, Salvador Perez got called up not long after his 21st birthday. And on Sept. 21, yet another 21 year old, flame-throwing reliever Kelvin Herrera, was promoted to the big leagues.

At the time, hardly anyone noticed the tidal wave of talent crashing upon Kauffman Stadium. To some it might have appeared to be another move of desperation by a team without direction. But that wave had been planned, nurtured and timed with great precision.

Fewer still noticed when pitcher Greg Holland and outfielder Jarrod Dyson debuted in Kansas City at the tail end of 2010. But those seven players were a wave drafted or signed to international free agent deals by General Manager Dayton Moore several years earlier. Moore wasn’t just collecting talented players either. He was uniting them at the lowest levels of the minors, where they could play video games and cards together, go out at night together (years before they could legally buy a drink), sleep on the bus together, and learn the game together.

“In the minor leagues you don’t really have anybody else,” Duffy said. “You spend more time with these guys than with your own family. Hosmer is one of my best friends. Same with Moose. Same with Salvy, and so forth. That’s not only because of what we’ve done here (in Kansas City) but the road we took to get here.”

In a game where it’s hard to find one or two good major leaguers in one year, Moore signed Perez and Herrera as 16-year-olds in 2006, the same year he lucked into Dyson in the 50th round. The 2007 draft brought Moustakas (first round), Duffy (third round) and Holland (tenth round). Hosmer was added in the first round of 2008.

Duffy mentioned several others when recalling the wave of talent that came up around him, including Wil Myers, John Lamb and Mike Montgomery, each of whom was traded for key components of the championship club.

“I wouldn’t say we felt pressure. I think it’s exciting more than anything,” Duffy recalled. “We just had a good time playing. It feels, looking back, like it was one of the best Double-A teams ever. We were like 94-56 when you include the playoffs.”

Coming up together experiencing success is part of the process. Putting that many good players together should foster a winning culture that moves with them as they matriculate up the minor league ladder.

Moore is trying to replicate that wave again, and the ripple is currently building strength at Lexington, Kentucky, home of the Single-A Legends. The 2017 amateur draft brought a highly-regarded cohort that forms the foundation for the wave. First baseman Nick Pratto, catcher M.J. Melendez, pitcher Daniel Tillo and outfielder Michael Gigliotti, drafted in the first through fourth rounds, respectively, gave the farm system an instant boost. After getting their feet wet in rookie ball, the quartet, plus seventh round pick outfielder Brewer Hicklen, moved up to Lexington this spring.

The 2018 draft, heavy on college pitchers, doubled the size of the wave instantly. Added to the group at Lexington during the summer were pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch and outfielder Kyle Isbel.

The prospects from those two drafts are teamed with a handful of international signings including sensational outfielder Seuly Matias, who leads all of minor league baseball in home runs. In all, Lexington served as home to 13 of the Royals’ top 30 prospects, including six of the top 10. They have nearly every position covered, apart from second and third base, with a top 30 prospect. And they have six top 30 pitchers.

As happened with Duffy and friends, the Lexington wave is experiencing winning. The Legends, who finished their regular season schedule on Labor Day, are currently battling in the South Atlantic League playoffs.

“Learning to win together is a big part of it,” said Duffy. “We won in the Midwest League, we won in the Texas League, we won in the Pacific Coast League three times. We were pretty successful in the minor leagues. Fortunately it translated to the big leagues. We won a World Series and almost another one.

“It’s not about the kind of players they are, but how great these guys are, how good these people are off the field. I have no doubt that Dayton is going to put together the same type of clientele as far as character goes.”

Duffy has seen the majority of the players making up his wave depart over the years. Only he and Perez remain. He admits it’s hard to watch players you’ve grown up with go their separate ways.

“My advice to (the Lexington team) would be just to enjoy every moment of it, because it goes by really quick. Once you get here, you start seeing people part ways. So just enjoy your time together because that’s what it’s all about.

“It happened very fast. I had a lot of people telling me it would go by really quick, and yet you don’t see it until it’s gone.”

The Lexington wave will take time to arrive. Most of those players will advance just one rung of the minor league ladder per year. That means you won’t see most of them on your TV any sooner than 2021.

Duffy said he would encourage the next wave to try to soak up each day, while still keeping the end goal in mind and working hard towards it.

“You’re always looking to get to the big leagues. That’s your number one goal and the destination. But there is something to be said for trying to just enjoy where you are each day. I would tell those guys coming up to just enjoy every moment. Enjoy the Arizona days, even though they’re hot. Enjoy the 12-hour bus rides. Because it’s a simple time. It doesn’t seem like it in the moment, but you have a lot of fun in front of you if you just enjoy it.”

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Royals GM Dayton Moore planting the seeds for a burgeoning farm system http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-gm-dayton-moore-planting-the-seeds-for-a-burgeoning-farm-system/ Fri, 24 Aug 2018 01:42:02 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1095 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 4, 2018 – you can read it here.

On June 3, the Royals had a record of 13-36, far and away worst in baseball. The 2018 season was already a lost cause. And to make matters even worse, their farm system was considered to be one of the weakest in the game as well. The team was horrible, and there was little hope in sight.

But when the team stumbled out of the gate and quickly ruined the year, it allowed the team to focus on talent acquisition, and to leverage the few assets it possessed.

General Manager Dayton Moore’s handling of the roster the past two years has been roundly scrutinized. But this summer, he leaped at a chance to improve the pipeline considerably.

First, the Royals utilized compensation picks in the amateur draft, which kicked off on June 4, to quickly inject an infusion of new talent.

The Royals were already pinning their hopes on a collection of youngsters in A-ball – the Lexington and Wilmington clubs – considered the next “wave” of talent comparable to when Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura matriculated up through the system. On June 4, they doubled down on that wave by drafting a passel of college pitchers.

The decision to put so many eggs in this one basket was questioned by some. But by doing so, they essentially doubled the size of the wave. The farm system lacked quality arms, and they Royals added several who could move up quickly, particularly Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic.

Then Moore kicked into action a plan he’d initiated during the winter.

Rather than just hand over positions in the major leagues to unproven rookies, Moore had chosen to stock up on cheap veterans under one-year contracts, hoping to flip them like one would a fixer-upper. While it didn’t work with each of his projects, Moore was able to sign and flip Jon Jay and Mike Moustakas for pennies on the dollar.

The Royals paid Jay about $1.2 million for a couple months of work, then on June 6, acquired a high-ceiling 18-year-old project named Elvis Luciano, plus a minor league pitcher with some potential in Gabe Speier.

On July 27, just before the trade deadline, Moore sent Moustakas to the Milwaukee Brewers for top prospect Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez, both of whom had seen some action in the majors. Thus the Royals invested a mere $3 million in salary to Moustakas to acquire a top outfield candidate and major-league caliber arm.

Between those deals, the Royals flipped reliever Kelvin Herrera, whose contract was about to expire, for two developing minor leaguers in Blake Perkins and Kelvin Gutierrez, plus another young project in 17-year-old pitcher Yohanse Morel.

Beating the bushes even further, Moore picked up a versatile and speedy switch hitter of waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in Rosell Herrera. Then he traded a low-level prospect for former first round draft pick Brian Goodwin. The two joined the Royals and immediately paid dividends.

And just like that, Moore had dramatically restocked the empty cupboard that was the Royals farm system, and added some new blood to the big league team to boot.

Of the Royals top 19 prospects rated by MLB.com, nine were not in the Royals’ system prior to June 4. The wave at the lower levels of the system that was started in 2017 gained strength with college pitchers and college outfielder Kyle Isbel. The mid-level minors was fortified with Perkins, Gutierrez and Speier. Furthermore, Kansas City took a flier on a couple of “lottery tickets” in Luciano and Morel.

Talent wasn’t just injected into the minors. Judging by the recent play of Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Goodwin, help is already arriving in Kansas City.

Next up, the Royals will try to get something – anything – for short-timers Jason Hammel and Lucas Duda via deals that are permitted past the trade deadline. Over the winter, they might listen to offers for their three most prized possessions – Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield.

And then they will be in line for one of the top picks in next June’s draft, the reward for being awful in 2018.

The Royals will continue to be bad for the foreseeable future. But perhaps the worst has passed. The youth movement will at least be entertaining to watch.

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