Lorenzo Cain – Todd Fertig Writes http://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:08:25 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: Mike Montgomery grateful for starting opportunity in Kansas City http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-mike-montgomery-grateful-for-starting-opportunity-in-kansas-city/ Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:08:25 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1496 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Aug. 24 – you can read it by clicking here.

It was like looking into a crystal ball. When the Kansas City Royals held a Futures Game on April 4, 2011, it was a preview of what would be the nucleus of the 2015 world champion.

Future champions taking the field for that exhibition were Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez, as well as Louis Coleman, and Christian Colon. The Royals’ farm system had recently been rated the best in baseball, and the futures game also featured Wil Myers, who would become an all-star in San Diego.

But the MVP of that exhibition, and the top rated of all the brilliant prospects, went on to win a World Series, just not in Kansas City.

Drafted by Kansas City in the first round of the 2008, pitcher Mike Montgomery was the #14 rated player in the minor leagues in 2011. Two seasons later, he was part of the deal that brought Wade Davis and James Shields from Tampa Bay.

Montgomery watched on TV as his old Royals mates claimed the 2015 title. But he was on the mound on Nov. 2, 2016 when the Chicago Cubs finally broke a 108-year championship drought. He threw the final pitch, thrust his hands into the air as the final out was recorded, and was mobbed by his teammates.

“It was an awesome feeling, that as time goes by, I’ll appreciate it more,” said the 30-year-old left-hander. “In the moment, and even the last few years, I haven’t really taken the time to see it for what it was.”

In the way that life brings things full circle, Montgomery is now back where it all started, traded to the Royals in July.

“Now being here, I can kind of look back on it and say ‘That was an unbelievable accomplishment,’ in what I think was one of the best World Series this game has ever seen. So to have had success in that is something that I can take with me.

“But I don’t want to be known for just that. I want to be a good pitcher for a lot of years. It was a great achievement, but I want to be able to accomplish a lot more than just that before I’m done.”

When Montgomery worked his heroics in Chicago, he did so out of the bullpen. The Cubs played 17 playoff games in that historic run, and Montgomery pitched in 11 of them. He threw some of the most important innings in the history of the franchise.

But there was one problem. Montgomery always saw himself as a starter.

He faithfully did what the Cubs asked, thankful to be in the major leagues, and eager to contend for championships. But the desire to be a starting pitcher never faded. The Cubs knew it, and they obliged. They didn’t have a spot in their rotation, so when they needed a backup catcher, they traded Montgomery to Kansas City for Martin Maldonado.

With their dismal record, the Royals have the luxury of auditioning players for the future. Montgomery will be given every opportunity to demonstrate what he can do in the rotation.

“It’s been good so far,” Montgomery said. “I’ve wanted to start, but the opportunities weren’t there in Chicago. You don’t have a lot of control over things in this game, but when I heard (I would be sent) here, I was super excited. I got drafted by these guys, and they told me when they made the trade, ‘We want you as a starter, and that’s what we want you to be successful at.’ I’m thankful for the opportunity here and I’m just trying to make the most of it.”

When Montgomery achieved elite-prospect status, he did so strictly as a starter. After two years in the Tampa Bay system, Montgomery was traded in 2015 to the Seattle Mariners. He made his big league debut that year, starting 16 games for the Mariners, which included two complete-game shutouts.

But the Mariners moved Montgomery to the bullpen in 2016, then traded him mid-season to Chicago, where Montgomery made history as a reliever. Since then, he’s been used as a “swing man,” starting when the team is shorthanded, but otherwise working in every relief situation possible.

“I didn’t ever get settled into that consistent routine,” Montgomery said about his years in Chicago. “Without that consistent schedule, it’s tough. There were plenty of times where I would start, and then I would come out of the bullpen two days later. So physically it’s hard. Mentally it’s difficult because you never really get that consistency.

“Some people are really good at (the swing role). It’s hard because you’re not able to stay sharp, when you’re coming in in the ninth inning one day, and then starting the game the next day. That’s definitely a tough role. But I’ve done that for a few years, and I felt like I did the best I could at it.

“So I’m glad to just get into one set role and see what I can do. I’ve started enough in my career to really understand that routine. I think now I know what it takes to be successful at that role. So that’s where I’m at now.”

Where Montgomery is at now is exactly where the Royals envisioned him a decade ago, when he and current teammates Perez and Duffy were storming through the minor leagues. He hasn’t forgotten the thrill of taking the Kauffman Stadium mound in 2011, in the starring role of the Royals Futures Game.

“I was a lot different pitcher back then. I was young, with a really live arm. I look back and think, ‘If I knew then what I know now, with a 21-year-old arm, yeah that would be great.’

“But you’re much better off with experience to draw from. I think now – being around the game, being with my fourth team, fourth pitching coach in four years – you just learn a lot that helps you be a better pitcher.

“That was a long time ago. I feel like I’m so much better now. But those are good memories for sure. We had a lot of fun. The fans were excited about the future, and we were excited as well.

“Now me and Duffy and ‘Salvy’ are the only ones here from that group. They had their World Series, and we had one in Chicago. It’s cool how things work out.”

Montgomery is building himself slowly back into a starting pitcher. His seven starts in Kansas City have brought mixed results. But he isn’t afraid to patiently endure the hardships, because he foresees success down the road for the Royals.

“There are good players here. You have to figure out how to win in this game. It takes more than just talent. It’s kind of a chemistry thing. For me, it’s just about taking care of my job, making sure that when I go out there, I’m fully prepared to give the team a chance to win.”

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Royals Rundown: Odorizzi part of Royals history as key piece in Greinke, Shields trades http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-odorizzi-part-of-royals-history-as-key-piece-in-greinke-shields-trades/ Tue, 13 Aug 2019 02:48:24 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1482 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 3 – you can read it by clicking here.

On an almost daily basis throughout the Royals’ march to back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015, you heard reference to two trades that changed the landscape in Kansas City: “The Zack Greinke Trade” and “The James Shields Trade.”

Those two moves, which will be remembered for as long as baseball is played in Kansas City, filled essential gaps and transformed the Royals into winners. And one man, rarely mentioned when the trades are remembered, was a key component in each.

Minnesota Twins star pitcher Jake Odorizzi crisscrossed the country as a piece of both trades, a helpless but not undervalued commodity.

When the Royals dealt Greinke, their lone star at the time, to the Milwaukee Brewers, they demanded in return a haul that included outfielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar, and pitchers Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress. (The Royals included their own shortstop, Yunieski Betancourt, in the deal.) Just 20 years old and still in A ball, Odorizzi was no mere throw-in. He was the Brewers’ first round pick in the 2008 draft and a highly rated prospect.

“I didn’t know what to think at that point,” said Odorizzi, who was named to the American League All-Star team this year. “I was only two years into my professional career, and I was probably like everyone else who just assumes they’ll make it to the big leagues with the team that drafts them. Obviously that was not the case.

“It was a lot to take in at that point, because I had just made friends with guys in the Milwaukee system, and now it was pretty much like I got re-drafted and had to start all over again with a new organization.”

Odorizzi made the most of the new opportunity, shooting rapidly through the ranks of the minor leagues and reaching the Royals’ major league roster at the end of the 2012 season. At just 22 years of age, he pitched in two games in a Kansas City uniform and appeared destined to be a fixture in the rotation of the up-and-coming Royals.

But then the second blockbuster trade took place, which built the championship team in Kansas City but also sent young Odorizzi packing. The Royals dealt top prospects outfielder Wil Myers and pitcher Mike Montgomery, plus Odorizzi and a minor leaguer named Patrick Leonard, to the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran pitchers Shields, Wade Davis and utility man Elliot Johnson.

The trade was dubbed “The James Shields Trade,” but it ultimately was Davis who was essential to the Royals’ 2015 championship run. Odorizzi, meanwhile, had to prove himself in yet another organization.

Odorizzi said he made friends and grew as a pitcher during his two years with the Royals.

“My time (with the Royals) was good. I got to see a bunch of levels between High-A and the big leagues in a two-year time span. So it was a relatively quick ascension through the organization. I got to see a lot of places and meet a lot of people.”

He said pitching in the major leagues for the first time, in a Royals uniform in 2012, is something he’ll never forget.

“I kind of kept doing what I was already doing my first two years, but with the Royals I was able to put it together and move up. Once you get to Double-A, that’s the biggest adjustment period, and I did it with the Royals. So it was good while I was here. I learned a lot.

“My time in Tampa really probably helped me more, because I spent most of that time at the big league level, learning what it means to do it at this level. I spent five years there, so I bonded more with the players there. During my time with Kansas City I was still learning and coming up, whereas with Tampa, I really started to understand myself and know what I was doing.”

While he made a name for himself in the Rays’ rotation, Odorizzi watched from afar as his old teammates marched to two World Series. While the Illinois native admits it was bittersweet, he was happy for his friends.

“It was good to see everybody I had met during that short time come to the culmination of winning. They had built a team that had a lot of homegrown guys that worked together really well outside of the trades I was involved in. I was happy that they were able to win because I know how dedicated the fan bases in the Midwest are. Being from the Midwest myself, I understood how special it is when you have a team that everyone rallies around and it does well.”

And thus Odorizzi’s name was permanently etched into Royals’ history. He was a key piece in two history-making trades. He played a part in a championship without winning a game in Kansas City.

“I don’t think I was referenced too much during that time,” the pitcher said with a chuckle. “It was usually referenced as the Wil Myers for James Shields trade, which obviously Wade Davis wound up playing a huge part, a bigger part in that trade. It’s funny when you look back at trades down the road and you see what they were called and remember that other guys were involved. It can turn out to be a lot bigger than the headline of the deal at the time.

“That’s my stamp on Royals history, I guess, is being a part of getting the pieces here to do what they did.”

Odorizzi made one friend in particular while with the Royals who has since become a nemesis. Whit Merrifield, his roommate in Wilmington, has since hit Odorizzi well in the big leagues.

“We lived together for about half a year my first year of High-A,” recalled Merrifield. “He’s a great guy. He’s had a lot of success up here (in the major leagues), which is great to see.

“I’ve been able to get a few off of him. Luckily, if he makes a mistake, I’ve been able to hit it.”

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Royals Rundown: Royals farm system flush with potential at catcher, but can any of them replace Salvy? http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-royals-farm-system-flush-with-potential-at-catcher-but-can-any-of-them-replace-salvy/ Mon, 27 May 2019 18:21:52 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1373 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on May 25 – you can read it by clicking here.

Throughout the Kansas City Royals’ youth movement of 2011 to 2013, the championship teams of 2014 and 2015, and now the current rebuild, one thing remained constant – elite play at the catcher spot.

Early on, Salvador Perez flew under the radar as the heralded group of prospects, including Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy, progressed through the minor leagues. But once they reached the majors, he exceeded them all. Perez has won five Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards as the top hitter at his position, and played in six all-star games. He was named the Most Valuable Player of the 2015 World Series.

But as Robert Frost once wrote, nothing gold can stay, not even a Gold Glove catcher. Sooner or later (depending upon how the Royals handle his next contract negotiation), Perez will eventually have to be replaced. One of the biggest downfalls of the Royals organization has been its inability to backfill for stars like Hosmer, Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain when they inevitably moved on.

That void appeared to rear its head at catcher this spring when Perez was unexpectedly derailed by an arm injury. In lieu of handing the catching duties to backup Cam Gallagher or promoting a minor leaguer prematurely, they signed fellow Gold Glove winner Martin Maldonado as a one-year stand in for Perez. So the play at catcher in Kansas City continues at an elite level, but only on defense. Maldonado is no match for Perez with the bat.

Perez’ injury may be a signal that the end is near. He is expected back next season, but age and injuries will cause the Royals to think long and hard about extending his contract.

In the long run, replacing Perez may not be as difficult as one might fear. The Royals actually appear to have an enviable collection of prospects who may be ready to step in when the next opportunity arises. Of the organization’s top 30 prospects, three are catchers. At nearly every level of the minors, there is at least one, if not more, heralded receiver striving to eventually emerge from Perez’ imposing shadow.

“I spent a lot of time with them (in spring training) and got to watch them go about their business. They look pretty good,” Gallagher said about the minor leaguers who gathered in Surprise, Ariz. prior to the season.

Gallagher described catcher as a position that requires a studious and thoughtful approach.

“There’s a lot that goes into it and at each level that you go up, there’s more preparation that goes in,” said the 26-year-old backstop. “There’s more information available and the game planning becomes more detailed. You have got to do your homework in order to be ready.

“The main priority is behind the plate – handling the pitching staff, having a game plan, calling a good game. Those are the things that don’t show up in the box score. I feel like I’m just getting the hang of it.

“Development defensively just takes a lot of time. Up here, the bat is always a plus. If you get a catcher who can really catch and hit, he’s an All-Star.”

An All-Star like Perez. Topping the list of prospects to follow in Perez’ footsteps is MJ Melendez, the organization’s third rated prospect. Drafted in the second round in 2017, Melendez was recently ranked the seventh best catching prospect in all the minor leagues by MLB.com.

“I spent a little time with him this spring, and he’s got some off-the-charts tools,” Gallagher said. “He’s still maybe a little bit raw, but he’s going to be a really good player.”

Melendez’ development may take longer than prospect watchers initially hoped. Promoted to the high-A level this season, Melendez has flailed miserably at the plate. His progress will be slowed dramatically until he gets the problem rectified.

Recently making a huge jump in the eyes of talent evaluators was Melendez’ current teammate Sebastian Rivero. The 20-year-old native of Venezuela (which also produced Perez) is ranked 27th amongst Royals prospects, and is splitting the catching duties with Melendez at Wilmington.

“This spring I was most impressed with Rivero, honestly,” Gallagher said. “He went about his business the right way. I really respect the way he handled himself. He may not get quite the attention that some of the other guys do, but he came in and did really well. I think he’s going to be a really good player.”

Another defense-first catcher, Meibrys Viloria, has a jump on Melendez and Rivero in that he’s already donned the Royals’ uniform. When the Royals traded Drew Butera and needed a fill-in for Perez last season, they elevated Viloria all the way from A-ball to the big leagues. He played 10 games as a 21-year-old, gaining valuable insight into what it takes to play at the highest level. But when Perez went down in the spring, the Royals believed Viloria needed more seasoning in the minors, necessitating the signing of Maldonado.

The problem is, like Melendez, Rivero and Viloria have struggled mightily with the bat in 2019. None of the three merits a promotion midseason. In fact, of all the Royals’ minor league catchers, only the Omaha Storm Chasers’ Nick Dini is having a good season at the plate. But the 25-year-old Dini is not considered much of a prospect.

One dramatic twist could drastically change the outlook for the catcher position. Adley Rutschman, catcher at Oregon State, has long been considered the top prospect in the 2019 draft. So much so, major league teams were tempted to “Play Badly For Adley.”

The Royals hold the second pick and will watch anxiously the selection of the Baltimore Orioles at number one. Should the Orioles, for whatever reason, pass on Rutschman to draft other prospect, the Royals would be in a position to swoop in.

The Royals’ highly regarded collection of catchers need to get it going with the bat if they hope to someday adequately replace the great Salvador Perez. But if the Royals should have the chance to add Rutschman, they might just opt to greatly enhance their present collection of catchers.

 

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One Year Later: Friday – Lorenzo Cain http://toddfertigwrites.com/1185-2/ Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:00:34 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1185 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Wednesday’s look at Mike Moustakas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Thursday’s look at Jason Vargas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Friday – Lorenzo Cain, CF: This one hurts.

You could argue that the Royals quickly adjusted to the departure of Hosmer and Vargas, and they brought back Escobar and Moustakas to start 2018. But they let Lorenzo Cain go. And there was just no way they could immediately replace what Cain meant to the team.

Cain was the 2015 Royals best player. His 7.2 WAR total, fourth best among position players in the American League, was by far the highest on the team. Losing him for much of 2016 is a big reason the team dropped off. He was back amongst the best in the game with a 5.3 WAR total in 2017.

The Royals certainly knew they had no one capable of taking up that kind of slack, but there was nothing they could do. Resigning a 32-year-old with a history of injury just didn’t make sense. So they bid Cain farewell and braced for the drop off.

There was a glimmer of misguided hope that minor leaguer Bubba Starling would step up and take some of Cain’s playing time. But Starling doesn’t look like he’ll ever fulfill his immense potential. So the Royals scrambled, playing Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield some in center while searching for other options.

Playing Abraham Almonte in center was a waste of time. But the short employment of Jon Jay in the outfield did exactly what was intended. Jay played well enough in the first couple of months to be traded for prospects.

Next up, the Royals tried Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin, both formerly prized prospects with other teams. And finally, KC acquired Brett Phillips in a trade for Moustakas.

Each of the three has some potential. Herrera has speed, can play numerous positions, and is a switch hitter. Goodwin may have the best bat. And Phillips has an incredible arm to go along with speed. None of the three, however, will ever remind anyone of Cain.

Cain brought the kind of well-rounded performance to the Milwaukee Brewers that led the Royals to two World Series. This year, he was second in the National League in WAR with 6.9, and second in defensive WAR with 2.4. He was the perfect investment for a Brewers team loaded for a postseason run.

He was not, however, the perfect investment for a team in rebuild mode. And the Royals were smart to let him go. He made $14 million in 2018 and will see his salary escalate by a million each of the next four years. He probably won’t be worth $18 million as a 36-year-old in 2022. The Royals will have better ways to spend that kind of money.

The one good thing that came from letting Cain walk was a compensation pick in the 2018 amateur draft – pick 33. The Royals gladly snatched up college pitcher Jackson Kowar. The righty was instantly rated the Royals’ fourth-best prospect and impressed in a half season of A-ball.

The Royals must see Cain as the past, and Kowar as their future. They may not find a centerfielder as productive as Cain for a long time. The search for someone to do the job adequately is underway.

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One Year Later: Thursday – Jason Vargas http://toddfertigwrites.com/one-year-later-thursday-jason-vargas/ Thu, 18 Oct 2018 22:02:26 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1182 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Wednesday’s look at Mike Moustakas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Thursday – Jason Vargas, P: Remember him?

Unlike the others celebrated at the close of 2017, Vargas felt the least “ours.” He had pitched for eight seasons in other cities before joining the Royals. He was an integral part of the run to the World Series in 2014, but then was injured for most of 2015 and 2016. He as not active for the 2015 playoffs and therefore played no part in winning the championship.

But Vargas did lead the American League in wins in 2017, earning a spot in the All Star Game. He led the Royals’ pitching staff in WAR with 3.9.

But like Hosmer and Cain, Vargas was deemed too expensive to retain, and thus KC bid him farewell.

While one can still debate whether signing the others to long term deals would have made sense for the Royals, there was no such consideration in Vargas’ case. His 2017 appeared to be built on sand. The Royals were pretty certain the then-34-year-old would not be a valuable pitcher for the long haul.

For some reason, the New York Mets believed otherwise. They gave him $6 million for 2018, $8 million for 2019, and will pay him $2 million more when they most certainly cut him loose after that.

So, what are they getting from that investment? Vargas went 7-9 with a 5.77 ERA on a team that quickly turned into a disaster. He was only good for 92 innings, and in those he merited a -0.3 WAR. That means that in the little that he did pitch, the Mets would have been better off with some minor leaguer taking his place.

So the Royals wisely dodged this bullet. But what did they do in 2018 in his place? The story only gets better. When the Royals scrambled to find a fifth starter early in the year, they turned to an unlikely candidate in Brad Keller. Keller was plucked from the Rule 5 Draft just a few weeks before, meaning his previous team didn’t think he was worth protecting.

All Keller did with the opportunity was post the highest WAR of any rookie pitcher in 2018. He went 9-6 for a dreadful team, and his 3.08 ERA was second best amongst rookies who threw more than 120 innings.

Keller will be a building block for Kansas City. He is costing the Royals pennies, meaning most of the money saved from not signing Vargas can be reinvested in the team rebuild.

With Vargas out of the way, and as other veteran starters fell by the wayside in 2018, the Royals were able to audition a host of youngsters, including Heath Fillmyer, Eric Skoglund, Burch Smith, Glenn Sparkman and Jorge Lopez. Instead of trotting a flagging veteran to the mound, the Royals did extensive evaluation on what they have moving forward. While they didn’t win a lot of games, the trials will prove extremely beneficial.

Saying goodbye to Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas was painful. Losing Vargas hurt far less. And now, one year later, the Royals are smelling like roses for their handling of his replacement.

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One Year Later: Wednesday – Mike Moustakas http://toddfertigwrites.com/one-year-later-wednesday-mike-moustakas/ Wed, 17 Oct 2018 17:00:04 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1179 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Wednesday – Mike Moustakas, 3B: Unlike Hosmer, the Royals had no intention of resigning Moustakas after the 2017 season. But in a strange twist of fate, there was so little interest in the free agent third baseman, Moustakas was left dangling until spring training.

One thing seems to be true about Royals General Manager Dayton Moore: he seems to be able capitalize on undervalued assets. While he had Cheslor Cuthbert ready to step into the third base role full time, Moore recognized the potential for a sign and trade with Moustakas. He brought Moose back on what everyone knew was a very temporary basis.

So Moustakas gave the Royals more or less two-thirds of a season. With 20 home runs he further cemented his place in Royals history – he now stands in ninth place in homers with 139. He produced 2.1 WAR in 98 games, heading for one of the best seasons of his career.

But on July 27 he was traded. And that’s where this story begins.

Hunter Dozier had been with the Royals most of the season, and wasn’t producing much at first base. But when Moustakas was dealt, it opened the door for Dozier to play semi-regularly at third for the last two months of the season. He took some positive steps, hitting .254 with 6 homers and 20 RBI the final two months. During that same period, Moose hit .256 with 8 homers and 33 RBI for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Dozier hasn’t figured out how to get on base as regularly as Moose. He probably doesn’t field at third base as well as Moose. But he runs well and is more athletic. There is potential there.

The wild card moving forward in the long-term replacement of Moustakas will be Cuthbert. In 2016, his one opportunity to play every day at third base, Cuthbert hit a respectable .274 with 12 homers as a 23-year-old. He looked like he might be the heir apparent to Moose.

But in the rare periods that he hasn’t been injured since 2016, Cuthbert has been ineffective. The Royals are loath to part with a player of his youth and potential, but roster dynamics have his future in jeopardy.

But the real story here isn’t just how Dozier or Cuthbert serve in Moustakas’ absence. The real story is what KC will get out of outfielder Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez, the two players they received from the Brewers in return for Moustakas.

Phillips struggled mightily in his two-month audition. The poor guy just can’t keep from striking out. Phillips went down hacking 50 times in just 112 at bats for Kansas City. His inability to get on base neutralized his speed on the basepaths.

Still, the Royals love his tools, particularly his arm and ability to cover ground in centerfield. For that reason, they will be very patient with him.

They can afford to be patient with Lopez, too. The 25-year-old will get every opportunity to hold a spot in the pitching rotation. In seven starts with KC, Lopez was hot and cold, but showed enough potential for the Royals to give him ample opportunities.

So the Royals got to enjoy four additional months of one of their most popular figures in Moustakas, giving fans something to relish during the bleakest of seasons. And they received two prospects for him at the deadline.

It’s bittersweet to watch Moustakas in the playoffs with Milwaukee. But the Royals will probably be wise to move on from Moustakas from a long-term perspective. He’s 30 years old, and has a body that doesn’t look to age well. Even if he is available at a low price this offseason, the Royals would be better served to invest financially in other places.

But to come out on top in the replacement of Moose, the Royals need for some combination of Dozier, Cuthbert, Phillips and Lopez to be part of the future.

 

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One Year Later: Tuesday – Alcides Escobar http://toddfertigwrites.com/one-year-later-tuesday-alcides-escobar/ Tue, 16 Oct 2018 17:08:07 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1174 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Tuesday – Alcides Escobar, SS: When the Royals said goodbye to Escobar last October, no one really believed he would attract much attention as a free agent. Therefore it wasn’t much of a surprise that he was available at a bargain basement price.

But it was disappointing that he was brought back because (apparently) the club didn’t believe Adalberto Mondesi was ready to replace him. Escobar wore fans out by getting all of the starts at short through the All-Star break. Finally Mondesi was given a shot, and he displayed the potential the Royals had hoped for.

Escobar played 140 games, coming to the plate 485 times. But in seasons past, he has averaged 598 at bats per season, playing essentially every game.

Mondesi played in 75 games, coming to the plate 275 times. His combination of power and speed is shocking. He hit 14 homers, many of which traveled more than 400 feet, and he stole 32 bases, in less than half a season.

Projected out to an Escobar-like 600 at bats, Mondesi would have hit about 30 homers and steal 70 bases this season. No one with 30 homers has ever stolen more than 52 (Barry Bonds in 1990).

There are still some issues Mondesi will have to work through. Like Escobar, Mondesi has yet to figure out how to get on base consistently enough. Mondesi’s on-base percentage in 2017 (.306) isn’t enough better than Esky’s anemic .279 in 5,307 career at bats as a Royal. And unlike Escobar, Mondesi is striking out way too much. His rate of a strikeout every 3.57 at bats is not just worse than Esky’s rate of one every 6.8 at bats, it’s cause of considerable alarm.

But the upside is off the charts. Escobar hit 36 homers in eight seasons as a Royal. He averaged a home run every 130 at bats. This season, Mondesi hit a homer once every 19.6 at bats.

In less than half a year, Mondesi produced a crazy 3.2 WAR. Escobar has been below 0.6 WAR each of the past four seasons. The Royals must be licking their chops over Mondesi’s potential and will see a huge upgrade at the shortstop position moving forward.

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One Year Later: Monday – Eric Hosmer http://toddfertigwrites.com/replacement-players-monday-eric-hosmer/ Tue, 16 Oct 2018 02:33:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1169 The final Royals game of 2018 felt incredibly different than 2017.

The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for what was perceived as the core of the club that reached two World Series and remained in the hunt for two years after that. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

Fast forward a year later, and in the finale a collection of mostly upstarts battled to win a game that couldn’t have mattered less to anyone else. They were buried at the bottom of the league. But this group had freshly tasted winning baseball and was eager to prove they could belonged.

Anyone who hadn’t been paying attention would see the Royals’ abysmal 58-104 record and disregard this new band as of no worth. But anyone who watched the Royals in August and September of 2018 knew this group of replacement players was up to something.

It could be argued, and is most certainly correct, that the 2014 and 2015 Royals were greater than the sum of their parts. None of those players would be confused for Mike Trout, or Clayton Kershaw, or any of the other best players those seasons. Statistically they weren’t all that special.

But still, a look at the statistics of those departed players is encouraging that this new group might be capable taking up the slack. And that look might prove that the Royals, and Dayton Moore, were wise to head on this new course.

Let’s look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Monday – Eric Hosmer, 1B: The Royals didn’t let Hosmer depart without a fight, but they must certainly be happy with the way things turned out. By letting him walk, they saved more than $100 million (the San Diego Padres paid him $144 million) and drafted Daniel Lynch with a compensation pick they received for letting Hosmer walk.

Hosmer gave a weak debut performance for San Diego. There’s no way to sugar coat it. The Padres must be panicked about this investment. He hit just .253 and continued to struggle getting the ball over the fence. He produced an embarrassing 1.4 WAR. Embarrassing, that is, for someone who made $21 million.

The Royals didn’t plug any one player into Hosmer’s spot, instead keeping it a revolving door. But the revelation of Ryan O’Hearn in the fall gives some hope the position will settle down. O’Hearn scored a 1.1 WAR in just 44 games by tattooing right-handed pitching.

To be fair, Hosmer seems to be an every-other-year star. In 2013 he recorded a 3.5 WAR. In 2015 he was up to 3.6. Last year, he posted his career best 4.1.

And let there be no confusion here. The Royals have good reason to have wanted to keep Hosmer long-term. He’s a manager’s dream when it comes to speaking to the media, leading the clubhouse, and especially relating to the community. From his Hollywood hairstyle and 100-watt style to his ability to speak both English and Spanish well, you just don’t replace someone like Hosmer.

But if, as an everyday player, O’Hearn produces anywhere near what Hosmer does, the Royals will gladly spread that $21 million around on better investments, while O’Hearn toils for something close to the league minimum.

Making this transition even more pleasant for the Royals is Lynch, who turned out to be a beast in the minor leagues and is now one of the Royals’ hottest pitching prospects. Time will tell if Lynch develops into a big league starter. If he does, this tilts the balance drastically in the Royals’ favor.

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Royals well represented in these playoffs http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-well-represented-in-these-playoffs/ Sat, 06 Oct 2018 21:41:47 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1159 It’s hard to know just how to feel about the 2018 playoffs.

First of all, it hasn’t been any fun turning on the TV the past two years and not seeing the Royals in the playoffs. Though it was only a two year run, watching the Royals in an unforgettable Wild Card game and 6 playoff series turned a ton of people into playoff baseball watchers.

That’s gone now. But you can’t turn on the TV and not see one of our boys on the screen. The number of former Royals littering playoff rosters is astounding.

2014 or 2015 Royals in the 2018 playoffs:

Brewers: Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Erik Kratz

Rockies: Wade Davis, Drew Butera

Cubs: Ben Zobrist, Terrance Gore

Dodgers: Scott Alexander, Ryan Madson

Braves: Lane Adams

Athletics: Liam Hendricks

Royals from other seasons in the 2018 playoffs:

Brewers: Joakim Soria, Jeremy Jeffress, Manny Pina

Cubs: Jesse Chavez

Athletics: Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter

Indians: Melky Cabrera

Braves: Lucas Duda, Peter Moylan

Did you think you were losing your mind when you saw Wade Davis throwing to Drew Butera? Last time you saw that in a playoff game, the Royals mobbed the field to celebrate winning it all.

No, you’re not having a flashback. You really are seeing 11 players you got used to in Royal blue during 2014 and 2015 playing in the playoffs this year…in different uniforms.

It will most certainly evoke some bittersweet sentiment. The good thing about this situation is that those Royals teams are being referenced plenty during this year’s broadcasts.

Eight more former Royals, most notably Joakim Soria, are going to be in the thick of things this year.

Two guys who won’t, however, are two of KC’s former top prospects. Mike Montgomery, who figured prominently in the Cubs’ 2016 series championship, didn’t get on the field before the Cubs were knocked out in the Wild Card round. And Sean Manaea, ace of the Oakland pitching staff, was felled by injury earlier in the year. Think the A’s didn’t miss Manaea when they had to start another former Royal Liam Hendricks in the most important game of the season?

Watching Cain bound out of the dugout to chase down Moustakas after his game-winning hit Thursday night certainly looked familiar.

You can either watch the 2018 playoffs and be constantly reminded of what recently was in KC. Or you can chose to not watch and avoid the rush of memories. But you can take it as a bit of confirmation just how good those Royals clubs were. Every other team currently in the playoffs seemed to notice.

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Multitude of changes have KC looking up in second half of season http://toddfertigwrites.com/multitude-of-changes-have-kc-looking-up-in-second-half-of-season/ Tue, 18 Sep 2018 00:44:23 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1146 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept 15 – you can read it here.

The Royals have essentially played two seasons in 2018. The first season, the disastrous one in which a group of veterans put up a 27-68 record at the All-Star break, had people worried they might just be the worst team in history (seriously!)

Then they played a second season, going for youth and speed. That team has gone 24-28 since the All-Star break and bolstered the minor league system at the same time.

Some of the choices made by Dayton Moore over the past nine months that produced such a dramatic switch were forced upon him by financial realities. Some were so obviously necessary (like moving Alcides Escobar aside for Adalberto Mondesi) that fans couldn’t figure out what took so long. And a few took serious nerve and ingenuity by Moore.

The list is long of players Kansas City jettisoned. Here’s how those moves are working out so far.

Changes prior to the 2018 season:

Eric Hosmer – The Royals allegedly tried hard to entice Hosmer to return to Kansas City with a hefty contract. Hosmer ultimately opted to sign with the San Diego Padres, and beloved as Hosmer was in Kansas City, the Royals lucked out on this one.

The Royals went with stopgap Lucas Duda and rookie Hunter Dozier at first base. But in the past month, Ryan O’Hearn has asserted himself as the first baseman of the immediate future. Hosmer has underperformed on his enormous contract with 16 homers and 62 RBI while playing essentially every day. O’Hearn has 10 homers and 24 RBI in less than one-fifth as many at bats. Hosmer’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total is just 0.9, while O’Hearn’s is already 1.2.

Lorenzo Cain – The Royals were loath to let Cain depart, but they feared his age and injury history made him a poor investment for a rebuilding team. They will ultimately be proved right, but it comes as no surprise Cain is tearing up the National League. He’s currently batting .313 with a .403 on-base percentage. In terms of WAR, Cain is the second best position player in the National League.

In Cain’s absence, the Royals have employed several options in centerfield, primarily Jon Jay (more on him later). None was a permanent fix, and current frontrunner Brett Phillips, acquired midseason, may not be either.

As compensation for letting Cain and Hosmer depart via free agency, the Royals received additional draft picks (in the 33rd and 34th slot) in the 2018 draft. By picking college pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch, the Royals may have added two pieces of their starting rotation of the very near future.

The Royals wouldn’t have been a good team in 2018 had they resigned Cain, and they were right to rebuild without him. But there is no doubt, they would be a much better team today with him. The same can’t be said about Hosmer.

Jason Vargas – The Royals let their top starting pitcher from 2017 walk, judging correctly that the 34 year old’s 18-11 record was unrepeatable. They were right. The New York Mets are paying Vargas $6 million for disastrous output. They are on the hook for $16 million more over the next two seasons, and the results are likely to get worse.

Vargas’ rotation spot was handed to Jakob Junis, and the 25-year-old looks like a building block of the future.

Brandon Moss – For some inexplicable reason, the Oakland A’s were willing to trade two minor league pitchers for Moss and pitcher Ryan Buchter. Moss’ skills had slipped to the point he was released by Oakland in spring training, and no other team wants him.

In exchange for Moss, the Royals acquired Heath Fillmyer and minor leaguer Jesse Hahn. Fillmyer has made some good starts in Kansas City, and Hahn, injured all of 2018, still holds some promise.

By not wasting playing time on Moss, the Royals have been able to audition outfielders like Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin.

Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander – This one hurts when you look just at 2018. The Royals traded these two essentially to rid themselves of Soria’s contract. But Alexander was a valuable young piece of the bullpen and he’s been very good for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Soria was rejuvenated with the Chicago White Sox.

The Royals received two quality prospects in Trevor Oaks and Erick Mejia, but neither is setting any worlds on fire.

The Royals shipped out a long list of pitchers after 2017, including Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Peter Moylan, Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood. The good news is the Royals are giving all those innings to young pitchers who may be good in the future.

Changes during the 2018 season:

Jon Jay – Jay was very good in a short stint with the Royals, but he was signed expressly to flip for prospects. Eighteen-year-old Elvis Luciano has loads of talent and time to develop it. Gabe Speier is an organizational filler who may reach the big leagues eventually.

Kelvin Herrera – It was essential not only that Herrera be traded, but that it be done at just the right time. Score a big win here for Moore. Herrera was near perfect for half a season in Kansas City. He was dealt for three prospects and promptly went into decline.

The return for Herrera has been solid. Kelvin Gutierrez, a minor league third baseman who is exceeding expectations at Double A. Depending on how Dozier fares, Gutierrez may be the Royals third baseman of the future. Blake Perkins is a talented outfielder who needs time to develop. Another 18-year-old named Yohanse Morel was thrown in and may be a player eventually.

Mike Moustakas – Moustakas has been good for the Milwaukee Brewers since being dealt on July 27 – six homers and a .277 average. But trading him was the only choice.

The Royals hoped to rake in the prospects for Moose. They may not have done that, but pitcher Jorge Lopez nearly pitched a perfect game last week, and has been ok in his other five starts. Brett Phillips has loads of skill, but will have to learn to hit. Like Lopez, his talent is intriguing.

Having won 13 of 19 since August 24, the new season is inspiring hope. Like manager Ned Yost said Friday night, “It’s starting to get fun again.”

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