The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on September 1, 2018 – you can read it here.
The race is on!
With 28 games left in the season as of the first day of September, the ultimate consolation prize of the first pick in baseball’s 2019 amateur draft is at stake. Whichever of the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles stumbles to the finish line with the most losses will have their pick of baseball’s best amateur talent next June.
Hard to believe that just four years ago, these two teams dueled for the American League pennant. Now, in the middle of a three-game set in Kansas City, they are both trying to figure out how historically bad seasons can be converted into opportunities.
In a sense, one could say that the Royals are accomplishing all that a bad team could hope for.
Goals for a losing season:
First, enter the season demonstrating the unquestionable intent to compete. Not tanking keeps the competitive fire alive. Play some cheap veterans who can be flipped for prospects. Shed payroll in the process. Convert midseason to a youth movement. Play out the season with young players learning to compete, with enough success for those youngsters to gain confidence. Still finish the season with enough losses for a premium draft position.
So here the Royals are, owning a 43-91 record and with nearly every one of those goals accomplished. However, the reward for the biggest loser is still up for grabs.
In a normal year the Royals would have locked up the first draft choice by now. But who knew two teams would have historically bad seasons in the same year? Since the inception of the draft in 1965, only one team has ever finished with a sub .300 winning percentage – the 2003 Detroit Tigers. Now the Royals are approaching that dubious feat, only to find another team is somehow worse!
The Royals are on pace to lose a franchise worst 110 games. In most years, that would be plenty bad enough for last place. Last year’s worst teams, Detroit and San Francisco, lost just 98 games each. Over the past decade, the average record of the worst team is 59-103. Unfortunately, the Orioles are discovering new kinds of bad.
The proud Baltimore franchise is currently headed for a historic 42-114 record. Only five major league teams have lost that many games in a season, ever.
The Royals are getting hot at just the wrong time if they hope to keep pace with the Orioles. By winning five of their last six, including Friday night’s victory over Baltimore, the Royals are losing ground in the race for last. After Friday, their record was 3.5 games better than the Orioles.
But hope for the first pick is not entirely dashed.
In a race this close, the team in last place must be sure to lose clear to the very end. The Royals found themselves in a situation similar to this in 2006. They entered the final weekend of that season with a two game cushion beneath the second-worst Tampa Bay Rays. But with nothing to gain by winning, the Royals suddenly got hot, sweeping the Detroit Tigers on the final weekend, while the Rays got swept. The Rays finished one game worse than Kansas City, and picking first, selected pitcher David Price. With the second choice, the Royals settled for Mike Moustakas.
Any student of the baseball draft will tell you that having the first pick (or the second, for that matter) is no guarantee that the player selected will become a franchise player. Unlike in football and basketball, the first selection of the baseball draft is years away from reaching the major leagues. More often than not, the first pick is a high schooler who still needs several seasons of development and polish. Injures derail a large percentage of high picks.
Of all the first picks in the 54-year history of the draft, only two – Ken Griffey, Jr., and Chipper Jones – are in the Hall of Fame. Only 24 ever played in an all-star game. A few never even reached the major leagues. There are plenty of examples of second picks outperforming the player picked ahead of them.
The Royals have only had the first pick in the amateur draft once before, and it didn’t exactly change the franchise. In 2006, the Kansas City owned the first selection and picked who they believed to be the best college pitcher in the nation – Luke Hochevar. Though Hochevar flashed some potential, and though he played a role in helping the Royals win the 2015 World Series, this pick has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment. That said, the second pick that year was worse. The Colorado Rockies selected college pitcher Greg Reynolds, whose accomplishments aren’t worth noting.
Picking second in 2005, the Royals chose Alex Gordon and came out about even with the team that picked ahead of them – the Arizona Diamonbacks took Justin Upton in the top spot.
The Royals didn’t come out quite as well in 2007. Moustakas hasn’t had quite the success Price has had. But Price still doesn’t have a championship ring.
In spite of their recent hot streak, the Royals seem securely situated to finish either worst or second to worst in the league. Kansas City is 9.5 games behind the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins.
Looking ahead, two amateurs appear to be neck-and-neck in the rankings of those eligible for the 2019 draft. Adley Rutschman is a polished catcher for Oregon State who might be just a couple of years away from the major leagues. But the Royals have a highly-touted catching prospect in M.J. Melendez, so they might lean toward the other top amateur prospect, Bobby Witt, Jr., a five-tool high school shortstop whose father had a long major league career.
The Royals’ recent success has been heartening, and the development of their current prospects is the most important thing right now. But adding a budding superstar to the mix would help immensely. The next month will help decide who that future star could be.