Adalberto Mondesi – Todd Fertig Writes https://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:09:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: Woeful KC has several quality pieces in place to build around https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-woeful-kc-has-several-quality-pieces-in-place-to-build-around/ Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:07:45 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1531 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 27 – you can read it by clicking here.

As the long, disappointing 2019 campaign comes to a close for the Kansas City Royals, changes are on the horizon. New ownership, a new manager and the development of minor league prospects will be all anyone will focus on from this point forward. And rightfully so. Fans will be glad to flush this 100-loss season and look to the future.

But an inventory of the 2019 season reveals some impressive – even historic – individual accomplishments that are worth celebrating. When fans look to the future, they may just find there are some high quality elements to build upon.

Most notably, Jorge Soler will lead the American League in home runs. This should not go unappreciated. Only twice in the 51 years of the franchise has a Royal even come close to this accomplishment. In 1975, John Mayberry finished third in the home run race, two behind George Scott and Reggie Jackson. In 1985, Steve Balboni came in third, four homers behind Darrell Evans. To achieve this feat in the second largest park in baseball is significant. Soler also entered the final series of the season fourth in the AL in runs batted in.

Some recommend the Royals try to trade Soler during the offseason. The logic is that his value may never be higher, and with arbitration conditions promising to push his salary up the next two years of his contract, the Royals would be better off swapping him for valuable prospects. But for now, Soler provides the kind of power potential the club has never had.

Whit Merrifield, another candidate to be traded this offseason, will lead the AL in hits for the second consecutive year. Merrifield is just the eighth Royal to record 200 hits in a season. Some argue that, like Soler, Merrifield should be dealt to build for the future. But with three years left on his contract with Kansas City, he is a Swiss Army knife the team can use all over the diamond.

Had Adalberto Mondesi not been sidelined for more than a third of a season by injury, he would have put together some remarkable speed stats. As it is, he entered the final weekend of the year leading the AL in triples, second in stolen bases, and first with a stolen-base success rate of 86 percent.

These three along with Hunter Dozier constitute an enviable foursome. Dozier entered the final weekend with 26 homers, 84 RBIs, and a .281 batting average.

This quartet gives the club hope for the future. The loss of Salvador Perez really hurt the 2019 Royals. But he appears on track for a return in 2020, and gives the Royals a fifth elite piece to build around.

Alex Gordon experienced a remarkable rebound in 2019, and currently sits at .266 with 13 homers and 75 RBIs. Fittingly, the tough-as nails outfielder is leading the American League in times hit by a pitch. The 35-year-old Gordon might return for a swan song in 2020, but it should only be on a very club-friendly contract, and expectations for him going forward should be kept low.

Beyond that, there are a million question marks, as too many members of the club either underperformed or are still in the developmental stage. Probably the biggest disappointment with the bat was Ryan O’Hearn, who is finishing strong again this year, but will close with a batting average well below .200. Despite his total inability to hit left-handed pitchers, O’Hearn will get plenty more chances in 2020, as will recently acquired Ryan McBroom.

Others who got their feet wet in 2019 and will be given plenty of opportunities as the rebuild continues are infielder Nicky Lopez and outfielders Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips. The team’s Rookie of the Year, Lopez will finish the year with nearly 100 hits and having demonstrated an ability to excel at multiple infield spots.

As bright as some of the lights were at the plate for the 2019 Royals, the team’s pitching cast a depressing shadow over the season. The team’s best young starting pitcher, Brad Keller, wasn’t good enough to produce wins for the team. He was shut down early with a 7-14 record. His 4.19 ERA, while not horrendous, was a full run worse that last season. Leading the team in victories with nine is Jakob Junis, but that’s about the only good thing you can say about his season. Junis was lit up to the tune of a 5.24 ERA. Acquired mid-season, Mike Montgomery wasn’t any better. His ERA was 4.64, but he was inconsistent and posted a record of just 2-7 as a Royal.

Veteran Danny Duffy continued to be just good enough to keep up hopes for something better. He was 7-6 with a 4.34 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign. Whether Duffy will remain in the starting rotation, be moved to the bullpen, or traded remains to be seen.

Beyond the shaky production of that foursome, nothing good came from the current starting options. The best thing that can be said about Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez and Eric Skoglund is that they were inconsistent. The only reason their audition will continue into 2020 is that the team’s collection of heralded pitching prospects is at least a year away.

If there emerged one star of the pitching staff in 2019, it was Ian Kennedy. Moved to closer primarily because he wasn’t cutting it as a starter, Kennedy found himself. He entered the last weekend of the season with 30 saves, good for fourth in the AL. His 88 percent save percentage ranks among elite closers. Kennedy may have demonstrated enough worth as a closer that the Royals will decide to trade him prior to the final year of his contract.

After Kennedy, the bullpen was a disaster. Auditions will continue in 2020, with some talented arms to work with. Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady at least have youth and potential on their side.

While some impressive statistics were accumulated in 2019, the only numbers that matter are the wins and losses. And those will once again be bleak. But with some impressive individuals to build around, and a large group to audition in 2020, hopefully the new owner and new manager will have plenty to work with moving forward.

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Royals Rundown: KC needs key prospects to make progress https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-kc-needs-key-prospects-to-make-progress/ Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:22:00 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1524 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 21 – you can read it by clicking here.

The Kansas City Royals need help. As they limp toward 100 losses, the deficiencies of the big league club are on full display.

With new ownership on the horizon, the direction of the team remains to be determined. There is but a small core with the big league club at this moment that appears to be set – Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier and Brad Keller. Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifield could be long term fixtures, or they could be trade commodities. That’s about it. Everything else seems to be unknown.

But what the Royals do have is a rapidly improving farm system that in just the last couple of weeks claimed multiple minor league championships. These titles aren’t meaningless to the franchise. In the years prior to their 2015 championship, the Royals placed a lot of emphasis on bringing up a wave of talent that won at each level as it progressed through the minors.

A new wave of talent just claimed championships in two A-ball leagues, a rookie-ball league, and in the Dominican developmental level.

The franchise is winning at the developmental level, and it is suddenly stocked with pitching. The Royals went all in on college pitching in the 2018 draft, and that investment may start paying off sooner, and with greater returns, than even the Royals could have hoped.

One thing is certain, however, about baseball prospects: few of them pan out. The Royals know as well as anyone that turning pitching prospects into productive big leaguers is not easily accomplished. The raft of studs on the farm today may not turn into a good pitching staff in the future. But for now, the Royals have an enviable collection of talent, and almost all of it came via the 2018 draft.

Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar progressed to Double-A midseason and therefore were not part of the minor league playoff hunt. But their performance this season validated the Royals’ use of first round draft choices on them in 2018. Singer and Kowar, former teammates at the University of Florida, split the season between High A Wilmington and Double A Northwest Arkansas. Singer posted a 12-5 record and a 2.85 ERA between the two stops, while Kowar went 7-10 with a 3.52 ERA.

Joining them at the top of prospect lists are fellow 2018 draftees Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic. The four-headed monster might start next season at Double-A, and an extreme optimist could envision it as four-fifths of the Royals starting rotation in the very near future. Lynch went 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA at Wilmington and is rated the eighth best left-handed pitcher in the minors. Bubic went 11-5 with a 2.23 ERA between the two A-ball clubs and saw his stock skyrocket.

Casual followers of minor league prospects should keep their eyes trained on this foursome. But that’s just the beginning. The A-ball teams were particularly flush with pitchers who excelled in 2019. Integral to Wilmington’s championship were two more 2018 draft picks, Jonathan Bowlan and Austin Cox. Bowlan went 11-5 with a 3.14 ERA between the A-ball teams, including a no-hitter, while Cox also split the season between the A-ball clubs, going 8-6 with a 2.76 ERA.

Guiding Lexington to its title were Carlos Hernandez, who rebounded from injuries to go 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA, and 2018 picks Zach Haake and Jon Heasley.

As encouraged as fans should be about the pitching prospects the Royals have collected, they should be just that concerned about the position prospects they were heralding a year ago. Wilmington was a deathtrap for hitters in 2019, snaring several hot prospects in disastrous seasons. 2017 first round pick Nick Pratto and second round pick M.J. Melendez crashed upon their promotion to Wilmington. Pratto finished with a .191 average and just nine homers in his sophomore season, while Melendez was even worse, hitting .163 with nine homers. Shockingly, slugging outfielder Seuly Matias was even worse in his debut at Wilmington. After crushing 31 homers in just 94 games in Lexington last year, Matias managed just a .148 average with four homers in 57 games before being shut down with injuries.

The Royals preached patience and calm with these three, but the organization will have to decide whether to promote them to Double-A despite their failures or send them back to the hitters hell of Wilmington.

Should first baseman Pratto, catcher Melendez and outfielder Matias rediscover their potential, they form a nice trio to team with 2019 first round pick shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. Evaluations of Witt’s talent are through the roof, but he scuffled a bit in his debut in the rookie leagues, hitting just .262 with one homer in 37 games. The Royals can’t afford for many of these top draft choices to fail.

The organization’s fourth rated prospect, outfielder Khalil Lee had a decent year at Double-A, hitting .264 with eight homers and an eye-popping 53 stolen bases. The 21-year-old will be brought along slowly, but is the major league club’s best hope to improve its lackluster outfield.

Three other athletic outfielders are making their way through the lower ranks. Kyle Isbel battled injuries and put up lackluster numbers similar to the others trapped in the Wilmington black hole. Michael Gigliotti returned from knee surgery to keep his name in the prospect ring. And forcing his way into the conversation was Brewer Hicklen. A bit of a late bloomer, the 23-year-old Hicklen had perhaps the best season of any position prospect in the Royals system, batting .263 with 14 homers and 39 stolen bases for Wilmington.

These hitting prospects are light years away from the major leagues and cannot afford to scuffle the way they did in 2019. With such a drastic upgrade in their stable of pitchers, the Royals now desperately need to upgrade the talent around the diamond. They won multiple minor league championships almost entirely upon strength on the mound.

Witt may well develop into a star. But Kansas City needs its other prospects to get things going with the bat. Continued failure by Pratto, Melendez and Matias would be disastrous. And by means of the draft, trades and international signings, the club needs to add more top positional talent that doesn’t stall out in the minors.

 

 

 

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Royals Rundown: Offensive output impressive at halfway point of season https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-offensive-output-impressive-at-halfway-point-of-season/ Tue, 02 Jul 2019 02:50:09 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1440 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 30 – you can read it by clicking here.

The halfway point of the 2019 was (mercifully) reached Wednesday when the Royals lost at Cleveland. The Royals’ 28-53 record has them on pace for the second pick in the 2020 amateur draft, which is about the only good thing that may result from this season.

But with 81 of 162 games in the books, Wednesday provided the perfect opportunity to look at some individual statistics, and the Royals actually have some personal performances worthy of note.

Jorge Soler is on pace to do something no Royal has ever done – hit 40 home runs. With 21 as of Wednesday, Soler is well ahead of pace to eclipse Mike Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals remain the only team in baseball that has never had a 40-homer season.

Soler is becoming the power source the Royals envisioned when they traded for him prior to 2017. The 27-year-old Cuban is on pace to drive in 106 runs. As of Wednesday his home run total ranked fifth in the American League, and his RBI total ranked sixth. To lead the league in either category would be historic. Not since Hal McRae in 1982 has a Royal led the American League in RBIs. No Royal has ever led the league in homers.

2019 Projected Team Leaders at Midseason:

Hits: Whit Merrifield, 204; Home Runs: Jorge Soler, 42; RBI: Jorge Soler, 106; Stolen Bases: Adalberto Mondesi, 54; Wins: Homer Bailey, 14; Saves: Ian Kennedy, 20; Strikeouts: Jakob Junis 168

Amazingly, despite their putrid record, the Royals stand to finish atop several of baseball’s statistical lists. Whit Merrifield is currently leading all of baseball in hits, while Adalberto Mondesi, despite missing 10 games, leads in triples and stolen bases.

Merrifield knows a little about statistical accomplishments. Last year, he led all of baseball in hits and stolen bases. He said that individual accomplishments can feel like something to build on.

“Individually, the numbers can tell you that you got off to a good start, and can give you an idea if you’re doing things that could help your team win,” said the 30-year-old.

“You look around and see other guys who are individually having good years, so that’s encouraging to think that in the near future, all that could come together to turn into winning more games.”

After leading the MLB with 192 hits last year, Merrifield led at the halfway point of this year with 102. Only seven Royals have ever achieved 200 hits, the last being Melky Cabrera in 2011.

Merrifield emphasized, however, that no one in the Royals clubhouse puts individual accomplishments ahead of the team.

“It’s good to have guys having individual success because it makes you think that some of the pieces are there. But at the end of the day, that’s not what it’s about. You kind of have the attitude of ‘Great. But we didn’t win. So how do we fix it?’”

That the Royals aren’t winning is certainly true. They are on pace to win 56 games, which would tie 2005 for the worst season in franchise history.

One area in which the Royals are feasting, but which has not resulted in wins, is the category of stolen bases. The Royals stocked up on speedy players in the offseason in hopes they could steal some wins by swiping a lot of bases. Skeptics argued early on that the stolen base is a somewhat empty statistic that wouldn’t lead to much success.

At the middle of the season, the naysayers appear to be right. The Royals stole 78 through Wednesday, 13 more than the next closest challenger, and more than double the league average. Going into the season, it was speculated that Kansas City might steal 200 bases, a mark reached by only one team since 2000. They are not up to that pace, and a couple of their primary thieves – Billy Hamilton and Terrance Gore – might well be traded before this season is up.

Individually, Mondesi’s 27 stolen bases through Wednesday have him on pace to place sixth on the Royals single season list, and to become the sixth member of the organization to lead the American League in steals, joining Amos Otis (52 in 1971), Freddie Patek (53 in 1977), Willie Wilson (83 in 1979), Johnny Damon (46 in 2000), and Merrifield (34 in 2017 and 45 in 2018).

The Royals are setting the pace in another speed statistic, triples. Mondesi and Merrifield sat atop all of baseball on Wednesday with eight and seven triples, respectively. As a team, the Royals led with 26 three-baggers.

If a team is the sum of its parts, then the Royals would appear to have some parts that could eventually amount to an impressive sum. Though not a league leader, Hunter Dozier is having a remarkable season, on pace to hit .302 with 26 homers and 84 RBIs despite missing nearly a third of the first 81 games. Mondesi has superstar written all over him. Merrifield, if he’s not traded, is as efficient and versatile as any player in the game. And Soler is realizing his potential as a power hitter.

But the parts aren’t constituting a winner yet. Can it happen soon? The Royals have been open about their belief they can be competitive by as soon as 2021. There is significant help coming up through the minor leagues, but for now the significant individual performances are being wasted on an underperforming unit.

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Royals Rundown: What to do with Witt? https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-what-to-do-with-witt/ Fri, 21 Jun 2019 04:00:36 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1431 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 7 – you can read it by clicking here.

“He could do for the Kansas City Royals what Patrick Mahomes has done for the Kansas City Chiefs.”

Those words, spoken by MLB commentator Jim Callis, were his way of hyping the Royals selection of Bobby Witt, Jr. in the first round of the amateur draft last Monday. Regardless whether Callis’ comment excited, or merely confused, Royals fans, he couldn’t have set the bar much higher.

To elaborate on Callis’ comment, he was essentially saying that Witt, a high school shortstop from Texas, would not just become a great baseball player. He would be lovable and larger than life. He would be must-see TV. He would become not just the face of a franchise, but of a city.

Believe it or not, that wasn’t the only thing that happened in the draft for the Royals. It only seemed like it.

Shortstops aren’t quarterbacks: The comment by Callis is an odd one to say the least. In fact, comparing a player drafted in baseball to one drafted in just about any other sport doesn’t make sense. NFL and NBA players are immediately added to the team’s roster, brought to camp and offered a chance to make a difference immediately. What they do will be observed from day one by the entire fan base. Baseball players are drafted mid-season, and then placed on the roster of some minor league team. In Witt’s case, it will be to a team whose games are watched by just a handful of people in person and a few others on video. It might be three years or longer before Witt is seen in Kauffman Stadium. In fact, there is a chance he will never reach the major leagues. That’s just how baseball works.

Can a baseball position player who bats only four times a game on average have anywhere near the impact on a franchise that a quarterback who touches the ball on every offensive play has? Not likely. But rather than criticize Callis for excessive hyperbole, let’s appreciate that a veteran analyst thinks that highly of Witt.

Where will Witt play?: The question has two responses. What position will he play, and at what level will he start?

It’s taken a little longer than expected, but Adalberto Mondesi is establishing himself as one of the most dynamic shortstops in all of baseball. His combination of speed and power is almost unmatched. He might very well be a fixture at shortstop in Kansas City for the next decade or longer.

So what does drafting a shortstop in Witt mean for the future? Royals fans need not worry about that for quite some time. It will take at least two years before Witt is considered ready for the big leagues. Probably longer.

At that point, there would be options. Mondesi, who is under contract through 2023, has played second base, and could move there. Witt could probably shift to third base pretty seamlessly. There is a chance the Royals would trade Mondesi rather than try to resign him. There are too many possible scenarios to necessitate worrying about the problem now. Besides having too many superstar shortstops is a fine problem to have.

As for where the Royals will place Witt, it will most likely be with one of the short-season teams at Burlington (North Carolina) or Idaho Falls. Both those teams’ seasons begin in mid-June and run for about 10 weeks, leaving a little time for a late-season promotion. Witt will turn 19 next week, so the Royals probably would like to see him move quickly through the lower levels.

Another shortstop?: As if there wasn’t already some concern that Mondesi and Witt will someday compete for the same position, the Royals also used their second pick on a shortstop, Brady McConnell from the University of Florida. McConnell played only one full season at Florida, so the Royals drafted him more based on his tools. Kansas City scouting director Lonnie Goldberg actually likened McConnell’s skills to those of Witt.

McConnell just turned 21, and could probably begin the season at least two levels above Witt, perhaps at high-A. Depending upon how quickly the two move through the system, one shouldn’t impede the other’s progress anytime soon. Again, you can never have too many elite shortstops.

The old college try: The Royals made 41 total selections in the draft. The 15 picks immediately following Witt were all college players. After using their first 11 picks on college players last year, this is definitely a trend. Some have wondered if the Royals are trying to speed up their rebuild by drafting older players. Others have speculated that the Royals believe scouting college players requires less projection and is therefore a more exact science. Some have even called it a mere coincidence. Whatever it is, the Royals seem to be stocking up on players more prepared to play at the higher levels of the farm system.

The Royals are really going heavy on college pitchers specifically. Last year their first 22 pitchers selected were all from colleges. This year, their first 23 pitchers were from the college ranks.

A local product: Four times, the Royals passed on Seaman product Ryan Zeferjahn, who was chosen by the Boston Red Sox with the 107th pick. But the Royals did take Gardner Edgerton product Jake Means with the 649th selection. The younger brother of Baltimore Orioles pitcher John Means, Jake is a third baseman at Indiana State.

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Royals Rundown: Kansas City blazing base paths so far in 2019 https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-kansas-city-blazing-base-paths-so-far-in-2019/ Sun, 12 May 2019 20:39:03 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1359 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on May 11 – you can read it by clicking here.

With a quarter of the race complete, the Great Running Royals are in the lead!

Not where it really matters, i.e. the major league baseball standings. Rather in another, much less meaningful, but nonetheless interesting race – that of stolen bases.

Not that everyone else is really trying to win that race. The stolen base is out of vogue, so much so that last season saw the fewest thefts since 1973.

For the past decade or so, the Kansas City Royals have been trying, with mixed results, to go against the flow. When the rest of the league values one thing, the Royals place value on something else, hoping to capitalize on affordable mismatches. So this year, the Royals hoped they could create an advantage by going all in on speed. They signed proven stolen-base threats in Billy Hamilton and Chris Owings, and they retained Terrence Gore as a pinch runner. Add those three to two-time stolen base champ Whit Merrifield and lightning-fast Adalberto Mondesi, and the Royals look more like a track team than a baseball team.

“We have probably the biggest field in baseball,” said Merrifield. “So homers just aren’t going to be as prevalent as they are in Yankee Stadium, or Houston or Milwaukee. It’s important that we have guys that are fast, to cover all that ground. And when you have guys who are fast, they are probably going to be able to steal bases too.

“And when we are stealing bases, and keeping other teams from hitting home runs, it’s probably going to lead to us winning games.”

(Technically, Coors Field is larger than Kauffman Stadium in terms of fair-territory acreage, but the Royals have the largest in the American League by a long shot.)

Merrifield has proven he can steal a lot of bases. He led the league the past two seasons, with 34 in 2017 and 45 in 2018, a personal accomplishment he takes pride in.

“It was a big honor, for something that’s a big part of my game, to say that I was the best at it in the league,” Merrifield said.

But as for his hope that stolen bases could lead to wins, how is it working?

Well, the Royals aren’t winning a lot of games. But not for a lack of running. After 38 games (entering the weekend series against Philadelphia), the Royals lead all of baseball with 37 stolen bases, 16 percent more than their closest American League competitor, and 46 percent more than the league average.

“Numbers wise, we haven’t set a numerical goal team-wise, but we know what kind of a team that we are, and we know what we’re capable of,” Merrifield said. “We’re going to run when we get on base. So whatever the number turns out to be, hopefully it will be a good one.”

Stealing bases is nothing new in Kansas City. In the 1970s, when the stolen base was much more a part of every team’s strategy, the Royals were among the best. They topped 200 three times in the 1970s – 218 in 1976, 216 in 1978, and 207 in 1979. They led the American League with 185 when they reached their first World Series in 1980.

For perspective on the difference in eras, consider that the American League team average for stolen bases in 2018 was 84. Willie Wilson swiped 83 (the Royals’ individual record) in 1979 by himself.

The Royals slowed down some in the 1980s, falling behind steals-crazy teams like Oakland and St. Louis. When the Royals won the championship in 1985, they were just fifth in the American League with 128 steals.

The mildly competitive Royals teams of the 1990s made the stolen base a priority, leading the American League in 1994 and again in 1996.

More recently, the stolen base has played a part in the rejuvenation of the Royals. They led their league in 2013 and 2014, each time with 153. The World Series winner of 2015 stole just 104 bases, but that total ranked second in the American League.

In terms of sheer speed, this team is equipped to achieve historic numbers, a fact not lost on them.

“It’s going to be interesting to see what we can do,” Gore said. “We have got a lot of speed, for sure, so it’s just a matter of getting the opportunities. When you look at what each guy could do, it adds up pretty fast.

“It would mean a lot to us (to achieve a historic total of stolen bases). It would be something cool to be a part of, but if we’re stealing that many bases, then we’re probably scoring a lot of runs. It would be a real honor to be thought of up there with the best.”

Going into the season, there was talk of stealing 200 bases, a feat accomplished by just one team in the new millennium. But at the quarter mark of 2019, they aren’t anywhere near that pace. They are currently on pace for something more like 160. Mondesi is third in the American League with 10. Hamilton is fourth with ten. Merrifield has seven. Gore has five.

Could it pick up?

Probably so. Hamilton has struggled to get on base, a pre-requisite for stealing bases. The team hasn’t been in enough close games to really exploit Gore’s potential. Owings has been dreadful at the plate, minimizing his effect on the basepaths. Hunter Dozier and Alex Gordon, both capable of contributing to the total, haven’t been running.

Not that the stolen base number will affect the win/loss total. It should be seen only as a means to an end. But still, it’s an interesting experiment the Royals are running, and it’s one thing that makes their games fun to watch.

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Royals Rundown: Talent abounds in Kansas City’s farm system https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-talent-abounds-in-kansas-citys-farm-system/ Mon, 08 Apr 2019 02:41:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1317 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on April 6 – you can read it here.

The Kansas City Royals major league season got off to a great start. But quickly reality set in – this team won’t be very good.

Rather than focus on that sad fact, however, Royals fans have somewhere to look for hope. The truly important baseball played this year will be at Wilmington, Delaware, and Lexington, Kentucky, not in Kansas City.

The Royals are doing their best to find a winning combination to put on the field this season. But more importantly, they are trying to ascertain which of the current Royals could play on a playoff contender in 2021 and beyond. Brad Keller and Adalberto Mondesi are definitely keepers. Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez might still be around. Others are auditioning for roles.

But the Royals’ true hope for glory is still in the minors. A couple of solid drafts and some trades for prospects have restocked the developmental system. So while you grin and bear the current reality, keep an eye on the following farm teams, which kicked off their seasons on Thursday.

Omaha Storm Chasers: Several players starting the season for the Triple-A affiliate were only held off the big league squad to retain their service time for a more opportune window. And more than a handful will see time in Kansas City this season.

The big league Royals bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. The Royals elected to start the year with some veteran acquisitions in order to allow a few key prospects to activate their major league service time a little further down the road. But that time will come soon. Richard Lovelady should be an instant upgrade when he’s called up. The Royals might also find some pitching help in Scott Blewett, Josh Staumont and Arnaldo Hernandez.

Nicky Lopez is big-league ready and just waiting for the right time to step into the Royals infield. (If current Royals utility man Chris Owings doesn’t get things going, the right time may come sooner than later.) Humberto Arteaga is in the same boat and plays essentially the same position as Lopez. There will be room for one, if not both, in Kansas City soon.

Former big leaguers Jorge Bonifacio and Brett Phillips have got to prove they can hit in order to be reunited with the Royals. Meanwhile Bubba Starling appears ready to finally realize his immense potential, and a call to KC should happen later this year.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals: Most of the attention at Double-A will be on outfielder Khalil Lee, the Royals’ #2 prospect. He combines elite-level speed, power and athleticism, and just needs more polish. Playing in Lee’s shadow, but not to be overlooked, is Junction City native Nick Heath, who possesses the type of speed that plays well in Kansas City.

The Naturals’ catcher, Meibrys Viloria, is so advanced defensively that when the Royals were in need of a backup last season, Viloria was promoted from the Single-A level all the way to the big leagues. He’s starting the season in Double-A just to make sure he gets to play every day.

Wilmington Blue Rocks: This is the team to watch. The high-A affiliate of the Royals will be bulging with top prospects. In fact, if you want to see what the 2022 big league Royals will look like, just check out a Blue Rocks team photo. Eleven of the Royals’ top 30 prospects, including six of the top seven, started the year in Wilmington.

In last June’s amateur draft, the Royals loaded up on college pitching prospects, and now those elite prospects are all clustered in Wilmington. The Royals’ top rated prospect, Brady Singer, will front a rotation that includes Daniel Lynch (the #4 rated prospect) and Jackson Kowar (#7). That trio may soon make up three-fifths of the Royals’ big league rotation.

MJ Melendez, the Royals’ #3 prospect, will share catching duties with Sebastian Rivero, another prized backstop. Nick Pratto (#5) is at first base.

Seuly Matias, who clubbed 31 homers last season, headlines the outfield as the #6 prospect. He’s joined there by Kyle Isbel (#10), Brewer Hicklen (#13) and Blake Perkins (#23).

The Royals don’t always leave players at Wilmington for the entire season. If the top prospects excel at high-A, they may find themselves fast-tracked to Northwest Arkansas, bringing them one step closer to the big leagues.

Lexington Legends: This pitching staff merits close watch this summer. The rotation is packed with potential in Chris Bubic (#9), Austin Cox (#22) and Jonathan Bowlan (#29), and should soon be bolstered by Carlos Hernandez (#11), Yefri Del Rosario (#12), Yohanse Morel (#20) and Janser Lara (#30), who stayed back in extended spring training. That means seven of the Royals’ top 15 pitching prospects should pass through Lexington this summer.

The most intriguing member of the staff, however, will be Ashe Russell. Picked in the first round of the 2015 amateur draft, Russell ran into off-the-field problems and disappeared for more than a year. But he resurfaced in the Royals’ training program last summer and may finally be ready to realize his potential.

In the field, the Legends will feature the Royals’ #13 and #24 prospects in outfielder Michael Gigliotti and shortstop Jeison Guzman.

Prospect watching can provide a lot of relief during the lean years. Watching from afar as players like Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and the late Yordano Ventura climbed the minor league ladder made all the Royals’ losing prior to 2013 a little more bearable. The same will be true during the current rebuild.

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Royals Rundown: Five storylines to watch as the 2019 season unfolds in Kansas City https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-five-storylines-to-watch-as-the-2019-season-unfolds-in-kansas-city/ Tue, 02 Apr 2019 02:44:21 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1309 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on March 31 – you can read it here.

Baseball seasons are not a sprint. They are most definitely a marathon.

Particularly for bad teams, which the 2019 Royals will most likely be, this means that what fans are talking about at the start of the season is probably not what they’ll be talking about at the end.

That being understood, here are the Royals’ Top 5 Stories for 2019:

1) Emphasis on speed: Baseball may be a marathon, but that didn’t stop the Royals from packing their roster with sprinters. Over the past couple of decades, major league baseball has deemphasized speed, making feast-or-famine power hitters the top commodity.

The Royals, however, have chosen to zig where others zag. Embracing the true concept of “moneyball” – seizing upon undervalued commodities to create mismatches – the Royals have stocked their lineup with guys who cover a lot of ground defensively and create havoc on the basepaths. The Royals won a championship in 2015 by emphasizing defense and relief pitching. But now speed is the name of their game.

To stolen base king Whit Merrifield and blazingly fast Adalberto Mondesi, the Royals have added one of the game’s top speedsters in Billy Hamilton. As if that wasn’t enough, they are retaining the services of a “designated runner” in Terrence Gore, probably the fastest of the group.

The Royals are basically running an experiment on the rest of the league: can you do what others aren’t doing so well that it creates a mismatch? Time will tell. But if the Royals wind up losers, it won’t be because they didn’t try something creative.

2) Salvy’s absence: How much will Salvador Perez, out for the year with an arm injury, be missed? So much of what Perez brings to the team can’t be quantified. So it will be difficult to tell. But he will certainly be missed by adoring fans who love his smile, his comedy and his Salvy Splashes.

In terms of defense, the acquisition of Martin Maldonado will greatly soften the blow. Recently acquired to fill in for Perez, Maldonado has an elite arm and the other defensive skills to go with it. Whether he can immediately step in and manage the pitching staff is questionable. But Perez will be with the team for much of the year, which will help.

3) Rebuilding the bullpen: The Royals bullpen can’t be any worse than it was last season. Four guys – Blaine Boyer, Justin Grimm, Brandon Maurer and Burch Smith – combined to allow 181 hits and 141 runs over 143.2 innings. All four are gone, and the Royals are banking that a couple of newly-acquired veterans will be a tremendous upgrade.

The Royals plan to employ a “closer by committee” approach. Returner Wily Peralta was a perfect in 14 save opportunities last season. He’s joined by Brad Boxberger, who saved 32 games in Arizona last season, and 41 games back in 2015. Also new to the pen will be veteran lefty Jake Diekman.

4) The potential of Mondesi: If you watched the opening day win over Chicago, you saw his rare combination of speed and power. The 23-year-old lashed two triples to open the campaign.

In less than half a season last year, Mondesi cracked 14 homers and stole 32 bases. If he can just get on base at a high enough rate, he will be the Royals’ next superstar.

5) The resurgence of Kyle Zimmer and Bubba Starling: Remember those two names? In 2011 and 2012, the Royals selected Starling, then Zimmer, with their first picks in the amateur draft. They paid them each a lot of money, and placed upon them the hope for their future.

Injury upon injury produced perpetual setbacks for the two prospects. Starling couldn’t hit. Zimmer disappeared completely. And with a gaping hole in their farm system, the Royals couldn’t help but regret the two picks. The book appeared to be all but closed on Starling and Zimmer.

This spring, however, Zimmer performed a Lazarus-like comeback, shocking the Royals in spring camp, then dominating in every live exhibition. Now the guy who when healthy has reputedly the best “stuff” in the Royals organization, is a surprise addition to the big league club. We’ll see if he’s still healthy and effective come September, but for now, his resurgence is a great story.

Starling, meanwhile, finally appeared healthy and able to hit this spring. He’ll start the season at Triple-A, but he might eventually join Zimmer in Kansas City as another successful reclamation project. Getting something out of these two onetime prospects would provide quite a lift to the Royals’ rebuild.

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Royals Rundown: Future of Royals will begin to take shape in 2019 https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-future-of-royals-will-begin-to-take-shape-in-2019/ Mon, 25 Mar 2019 01:33:43 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1295 The following article was featured in the Topeka Capital-Journal on March 23, 2019. You can find it here.

A fresh start can’t come soon enough for the Kansas City Royals.

When the Royals take the field on Thursday, they hope to erase the memory of the second-worst season in the history of the organization. Only the disastrous 2005 campaign, in which the Royals posted 56-106 record, was worse.

Last season’s attempt to compete with retreads and one-year fliers failed miserably. Against the better judgment of virtually every analyst, the Royals tried to cut payroll, rebuild the minor league system, and still compete with a collection of misfits. No one was surprised when the experiment was a complete catastrophe. When the Royals got off to a 7-21 start, the season seemed to be wasted. By May of 2018, fans were already resigned to fast-forward to 2019.

But looking beyond the win-loss column, something happened in the second half of the season that provides cause for optimism.

Once General Manager Dayton Moore was forced to give up hopes of competing, he shifted to what most believed should have been the plan all along. He finally started flipping his trade pieces for prospects. Fans bid farewell to holdovers from the championship team like Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas and Drew Butera. With considerably less sentimentality, the Royals also flipped one-year stopgaps Lucas Duda and Jon Jay.

The prospects the Royals received in return went a long way toward rebuilding the farm system. But perhaps even more importantly, emptying the cupboard allowed youngsters a chance to show what they could do. Enter athletic types Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, Brett Phillips, Brian Goodwin and young arms Jorge Lopez and Heath Fillmyer.

Those newcomers joined a young cohort already in Kansas City – Brad Keller, Jacob Junis, Hunter Dozier – and suddenly things clicked.

Buried on August 24 by a 39-90 start to the season, this revamped roster started playing with passion. The kids played to show what they could do, essentially auditioning for roles in 2019. They played at a .586 clip the rest of the way.

A youth movement is now afoot. With it comes tempered expectations. No one anticipates the 2019 Royals winning anywhere near 58 percent of their games. Anything near .500 would, frankly, come as a shock.

But the good news is you won’t be watching a collection of one-year trade chips this year. The players taking the field for Kansas City this summer may well be around for years to come. If the Royals are to be good in 2021 and beyond, it will be with Mondesi, Keller, and some of the others likely playing a large role.

Things change fast. Only a few members of the beloved 2015 squad will be around. Alex Gordon will almost certainly play his last season as a Royal. Fans need to enjoy it while it lasts. Danny Duffy will likely be around for the foreseeable future, and hopefully he can approximate the role of an experienced “ace.”

Sadly, the most popular player left from the championship season will not be in uniform in 2019. Salvador Perez will be repairing an injured arm. Rest assured, whatever time he spends in Kansas City will not go unnoticed. He’ll surely be bounding around the dugout, leading the cheers and the Gatorade splashes. But his bat, his defense, and particularly his on-field leadership, will be sorely missed.

Ultimately, the win-loss record of the 2019 Royals is not important. This team will be about development. But the product on the field will be infinitely more entertaining than last year. And the future will be taking shape before our eyes. That should wash away the awful taste of the 2018 disaster.

Opening day can’t get her quickly enough.

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One Year Later: Tuesday – Alcides Escobar https://toddfertigwrites.com/one-year-later-tuesday-alcides-escobar/ Tue, 16 Oct 2018 17:08:07 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1174 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Tuesday – Alcides Escobar, SS: When the Royals said goodbye to Escobar last October, no one really believed he would attract much attention as a free agent. Therefore it wasn’t much of a surprise that he was available at a bargain basement price.

But it was disappointing that he was brought back because (apparently) the club didn’t believe Adalberto Mondesi was ready to replace him. Escobar wore fans out by getting all of the starts at short through the All-Star break. Finally Mondesi was given a shot, and he displayed the potential the Royals had hoped for.

Escobar played 140 games, coming to the plate 485 times. But in seasons past, he has averaged 598 at bats per season, playing essentially every game.

Mondesi played in 75 games, coming to the plate 275 times. His combination of power and speed is shocking. He hit 14 homers, many of which traveled more than 400 feet, and he stole 32 bases, in less than half a season.

Projected out to an Escobar-like 600 at bats, Mondesi would have hit about 30 homers and steal 70 bases this season. No one with 30 homers has ever stolen more than 52 (Barry Bonds in 1990).

There are still some issues Mondesi will have to work through. Like Escobar, Mondesi has yet to figure out how to get on base consistently enough. Mondesi’s on-base percentage in 2017 (.306) isn’t enough better than Esky’s anemic .279 in 5,307 career at bats as a Royal. And unlike Escobar, Mondesi is striking out way too much. His rate of a strikeout every 3.57 at bats is not just worse than Esky’s rate of one every 6.8 at bats, it’s cause of considerable alarm.

But the upside is off the charts. Escobar hit 36 homers in eight seasons as a Royal. He averaged a home run every 130 at bats. This season, Mondesi hit a homer once every 19.6 at bats.

In less than half a year, Mondesi produced a crazy 3.2 WAR. Escobar has been below 0.6 WAR each of the past four seasons. The Royals must be licking their chops over Mondesi’s potential and will see a huge upgrade at the shortstop position moving forward.

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Despite disastrous season, new stars have seen relative success with Royals https://toddfertigwrites.com/despite-disastrous-season-new-stars-have-seen-relative-success-with-royals/ Sun, 30 Sep 2018 22:30:21 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1156 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 29 – you can read it here.

The 2018 Kansas City Royals were a disaster. But you wouldn’t know it by talking to the guys taking the field the past two months.

That’s because a large number of the guys in the clubhouse now weren’t there when the Royals bumbled to a 27-68 record at the All-Star break. Since then, Ryan O’Hearn and Adalberto Mondesi have brought superstar production to Kansas City. Brett Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin have brought speed and athleticism (and the swagger that comes with it). And Brad Keller, Heath Fillmyer and Jorge Lopez have infused the starting rotation with youth and potential.

Talk to any of the youngsters, and they see this season as an opportunity.

“The new guys, the young guys, have to prove that we belong here, and demonstrate what we can do for the team moving forward,” said Phillips, who, along with Lopez, was acquired in late July in a trade for Mike Moustakas. “So we have a lot of motivation, a lot of energy, to go out there each day regardless of how many games the team has won or lost.”

Pitcher Ian Kennedy said that while the first half of the season was disappointing to the veterans assembled to start the year, the transformation of the roster points to brighter days ahead. After struggling mightily at the start of the season, Kennedy sat out much of the year with injuries. He observed the change from the dugout.

“The group we started with just struggled all around. We couldn’t click,” Kennedy said. “Now as the team starts to transform, the young guys are all hungry because they want a spot next year. They want to prove that they can do something up here. I’m really excited for our future. I watched the transition while I was on the disabled list, and it’s been fun to see.”

Keller, who has been a leader of the youth movement, said that winning at a respectable clip this fall is going to catapult the team into greater success moving forward.

“The vibe around here these days is just awesome,” said the 23-year-old. “How we’re conducting business from then to now is a night and day difference. You can see it on the field, how much fun we’re having. It’s going to give us confidence moving forward. We feel like, give us a full year together and see what can happen.”

As Keller and company wrap up the Royals’ 50th season, a healthy dose of perspective is in order. While the overall record won’t be much to celebrate, there is a silver lining to the dark cloud of 2018.

The Class of ‘69

There have certainly been some bleak periods for the expansion team awarded to Kansas City at major league baseball’s 1967 winter meetings. But of the four teams created at that meeting – the San Diego Padres, Seattle Pilots and Montreal Expos being the other three – the Royals are unquestionably at the head of the class.

First of all, two of the clubs bolted their original homes for greener pastures. The Pilots barely paused long enough to unpack their bags in Seattle before moving to Milwaukee to become the Brewers in 1970. The Expos were competitive for a time, but couldn’t win over their Canadian hosts and morphed into the Washington Nationals in 2005.

The Royals have played in four World Series, winning two. Of the other three 1969 expansion clubs, the Padres lost in the 1984 and 1998 series, and the Brewers lost in the 1982 series. So the Royals have played in more World Series than the other three combined, and been the only one to win even one championship.

Of the 30 teams in major league baseball, 12 have reached fewer World Series than the Royals, some of which have been around for much longer.

We’ve been here before and felt far worse

The Royals have lost 100 or more games four times previously. With two games left, this Royals team will escape the embarrassment of being worst in team history. They lost 106 in 2005.

It hurt when, after failing to capitalize on building blocks like Mike Sweeney, Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran and Jermaine Dye, the 2002 Royals dropped 100 for the first time in team history.

2004 was dreadful because, after the fool’s gold of 2003 led fans to believe the team was actually competitive, the 104 losses exposed that a quick rebuild was not possible.

Things couldn’t have looked more bleak than they did in 2005, when they lost 106 games and hardly had anyone of real major league caliber. 2006 was only slightly better, when the Royals again lost an even 100.

So with a bunch of young studs playing, and winning, in the second half, 2018 doesn’t seem that bad. With Keller, Mondesi and friends emerging as building blocks, there is hope for next year.

As is often said, a losing season doesn’t have to be a lost season. It doesn’t feel like a lost season in the clubhouse these days.

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