Bubba Starling – Todd Fertig Writes https://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:09:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: Woeful KC has several quality pieces in place to build around https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-woeful-kc-has-several-quality-pieces-in-place-to-build-around/ Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:07:45 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1531 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 27 – you can read it by clicking here.

As the long, disappointing 2019 campaign comes to a close for the Kansas City Royals, changes are on the horizon. New ownership, a new manager and the development of minor league prospects will be all anyone will focus on from this point forward. And rightfully so. Fans will be glad to flush this 100-loss season and look to the future.

But an inventory of the 2019 season reveals some impressive – even historic – individual accomplishments that are worth celebrating. When fans look to the future, they may just find there are some high quality elements to build upon.

Most notably, Jorge Soler will lead the American League in home runs. This should not go unappreciated. Only twice in the 51 years of the franchise has a Royal even come close to this accomplishment. In 1975, John Mayberry finished third in the home run race, two behind George Scott and Reggie Jackson. In 1985, Steve Balboni came in third, four homers behind Darrell Evans. To achieve this feat in the second largest park in baseball is significant. Soler also entered the final series of the season fourth in the AL in runs batted in.

Some recommend the Royals try to trade Soler during the offseason. The logic is that his value may never be higher, and with arbitration conditions promising to push his salary up the next two years of his contract, the Royals would be better off swapping him for valuable prospects. But for now, Soler provides the kind of power potential the club has never had.

Whit Merrifield, another candidate to be traded this offseason, will lead the AL in hits for the second consecutive year. Merrifield is just the eighth Royal to record 200 hits in a season. Some argue that, like Soler, Merrifield should be dealt to build for the future. But with three years left on his contract with Kansas City, he is a Swiss Army knife the team can use all over the diamond.

Had Adalberto Mondesi not been sidelined for more than a third of a season by injury, he would have put together some remarkable speed stats. As it is, he entered the final weekend of the year leading the AL in triples, second in stolen bases, and first with a stolen-base success rate of 86 percent.

These three along with Hunter Dozier constitute an enviable foursome. Dozier entered the final weekend with 26 homers, 84 RBIs, and a .281 batting average.

This quartet gives the club hope for the future. The loss of Salvador Perez really hurt the 2019 Royals. But he appears on track for a return in 2020, and gives the Royals a fifth elite piece to build around.

Alex Gordon experienced a remarkable rebound in 2019, and currently sits at .266 with 13 homers and 75 RBIs. Fittingly, the tough-as nails outfielder is leading the American League in times hit by a pitch. The 35-year-old Gordon might return for a swan song in 2020, but it should only be on a very club-friendly contract, and expectations for him going forward should be kept low.

Beyond that, there are a million question marks, as too many members of the club either underperformed or are still in the developmental stage. Probably the biggest disappointment with the bat was Ryan O’Hearn, who is finishing strong again this year, but will close with a batting average well below .200. Despite his total inability to hit left-handed pitchers, O’Hearn will get plenty more chances in 2020, as will recently acquired Ryan McBroom.

Others who got their feet wet in 2019 and will be given plenty of opportunities as the rebuild continues are infielder Nicky Lopez and outfielders Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips. The team’s Rookie of the Year, Lopez will finish the year with nearly 100 hits and having demonstrated an ability to excel at multiple infield spots.

As bright as some of the lights were at the plate for the 2019 Royals, the team’s pitching cast a depressing shadow over the season. The team’s best young starting pitcher, Brad Keller, wasn’t good enough to produce wins for the team. He was shut down early with a 7-14 record. His 4.19 ERA, while not horrendous, was a full run worse that last season. Leading the team in victories with nine is Jakob Junis, but that’s about the only good thing you can say about his season. Junis was lit up to the tune of a 5.24 ERA. Acquired mid-season, Mike Montgomery wasn’t any better. His ERA was 4.64, but he was inconsistent and posted a record of just 2-7 as a Royal.

Veteran Danny Duffy continued to be just good enough to keep up hopes for something better. He was 7-6 with a 4.34 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign. Whether Duffy will remain in the starting rotation, be moved to the bullpen, or traded remains to be seen.

Beyond the shaky production of that foursome, nothing good came from the current starting options. The best thing that can be said about Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez and Eric Skoglund is that they were inconsistent. The only reason their audition will continue into 2020 is that the team’s collection of heralded pitching prospects is at least a year away.

If there emerged one star of the pitching staff in 2019, it was Ian Kennedy. Moved to closer primarily because he wasn’t cutting it as a starter, Kennedy found himself. He entered the last weekend of the season with 30 saves, good for fourth in the AL. His 88 percent save percentage ranks among elite closers. Kennedy may have demonstrated enough worth as a closer that the Royals will decide to trade him prior to the final year of his contract.

After Kennedy, the bullpen was a disaster. Auditions will continue in 2020, with some talented arms to work with. Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady at least have youth and potential on their side.

While some impressive statistics were accumulated in 2019, the only numbers that matter are the wins and losses. And those will once again be bleak. But with some impressive individuals to build around, and a large group to audition in 2020, hopefully the new owner and new manager will have plenty to work with moving forward.

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Royals Rundown: Bubba Starling’s star-studded arrival takes pressure off Nicky Lopez in KC https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-bubba-starlings-star-studded-arrival-takes-pressure-off-nicky-lopez-in-kc/ Sun, 21 Jul 2019 15:55:24 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1470 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 20 – you can read it by clicking here.

Since the All-Star break a week and a half ago, the Kansas City Royals’ fan base has been energized by the promotion of rookie Bubba Starling to the major leagues. The long-awaited promotion of the Gardner product took the focus momentarily off the teams’ dismal first half showing. Friends and relatives of the Starlings boosted attendance at Kauffman Stadium, and fans tuned in to see how the rookie would fare.

Nicky Lopez can relax as the spotlight is focused on his new teammate. Because it was just a few weeks ago that he was focus of such attention, the hope for a brighter future. Like the Starlings, Lopez’ family was on camera during each of his at bats, riding the highs and lows of breaking into the big leagues.

“It felt great to have the support before even playing my first game,” Lopez said, looking back on his initial days in the league. “To see all the fans come out and cheer for me just made me feel great. It was pretty special.”

Lopez’ promotion to the big leagues on May 14 signaled a much-needed change of direction in Kansas City, and came with an inordinate amount of attention. Despite being a slap-hitting middle infielder who wasn’t a highly ranked prospect, Lopez arrived with outlandish fanfare and outsized expectations.

The reason for such excitement? Much of it had to do with the success he had in the minor leagues. Lopez was an on-base machine. Some of it had to do with the miserable 14-27 record of the team. Fans were hungry for any kind of change.

But much of it was due to animosity toward the man Lopez replaced. Veteran utility man Chris Owings, signed as a free agent during the offseason, flopped out of the gate and instantly became the focus of fans’ frustration with the direction on the team. Owings’ signing made no sense and seemed only to be holding back younger prospects like Lopez. Owings failed miserably at the plate, but continued to get regular playing time. Despite having a solid track record as a major leaguer, fans weren’t about to wait for the 27-year-old to turn things around. Their displeasure quickly forced the Royals to promote Lopez, and Owings was released just a few weeks later. The Royals ate $3 million to move on from the mistake.

And just as Owings was seen as the face of the club’s ineptitude, Lopez was cast as the hope for the future. Both assumptions were unfair. But the initial frenzy has settled down, and Starling is taking most of the attention these days.

“Things are settling down, and that feels good,” said Lopez. “The first couple of weeks were a little hectic. I was riding the high of just being new to the big leagues. Having all my family and friends and relatives in town was really special. But now it’s just good that I can get into a routine and learn about the big league life.

“Being able to stay at my apartment by myself and not have to worry about all the distractions outside of baseball has been good. I’m learning a lot and developing, which is the biggest thing. I just want to keep developing.”

When the Royals jettisoned Owings, they moved Whit Merrifield to the outfield full time to create a regular role at second base for Lopez. The fact that the Royals repositioned one of their best players to make room for Lopez fueled expectations even more.

As should have been expected, Lopez has struggled to adjust to the major leagues. In April and May he posted a .353 batting average and a .457 on-base percentage at Triple-A that he was never going to be able to replicate in the big leagues. He was known for almost never striking out in the minors. But the pitching he’s facing now is a different animal. His strikeouts are up, and his walks are down.

But the 24-year-old Creighton product is adjusting. He’s weathered a couple short slumps and is currently hitting .241 – solid if not spectacular. As expected he’s providing no power, but his spray-hitting style and energy provides an occasional boost.

Since the hoopla settled down, Lopez has settled into a long-range view of personal development, which mirrors that of the team.

“We are working hard. We come in every day with a ‘Today is a new day’ mindset,” said the native of Naperville, Ill. “We’re just trying to get better each and every day. We know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. If not next year, then in the next couple of years, we know that we’re going to be pretty good.”

Lopez has a firm grip on the second base position, for now. Versatile Erick Mejia may earn a utility role in Kansas City eventually. Gabe Cancel and newly acquired Kevin Merrill are prospects at Double-A who may threaten Lopez down the road. And in a few years, draftees Bobby Witt, Jr. and Brady McConnell might be slotted at second base.

Lopez himself knows that the key to the process is developing prospects to mesh with the Royals’ young core. He believes that help is on the way.

“The future is so bright. We are struggling right now, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. There are a lot of guys in the minors who are going to be good in the near future. We got guys down in the Single-A level that I haven’t really played with. But I hear really good things about them, particularly the pitching staff. And there are guys who I was with in Triple-A who are knocking on the door and just waiting for their opportunity.

“We just gotta get through this year and keep building.”

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Royals Rundown: As trade deadline approaches, Kansas City looking to sell https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-as-trade-deadline-approaches-kansas-city-looking-to-sell/ Tue, 16 Jul 2019 03:25:03 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1464 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 13 – you can read it by clicking here.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look to be sellers as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, hoping to improve their farm system by trading away players who aren’t a long-term fit.

That means that, for the second year in a row, the team that finishes the season in Kansas City will look dramatically different from the one that started it.

While many more losses will follow the trade deadline, many interesting things could take place in Kansas City, things which hopefully will eventually lead to the resurgence of the franchise.

Which deals get made?

Last year the Royals were able to move players much more quickly than they have this season. By this time last year, the Royals had flipped Jon Jay and Kelvin Herrera for a considerable return. They would soon add more prospects by trading Mike Moustakas. And they would sell Terrance Gore and Lucas Duda, and trade Drew Butera.

This year’s trade market has been cold and the Royals have yet to make a single trade of significance.

They have several players under contract beyond 2019 that they would love to move if the right deal presented itself, starting with Ian Kennedy and possibly including Alex Gordon.

But they are more desperate to get anything in return for the guys with expiring contracts. Most likely to be traded are pitchers Homer Bailey and Jake Diekman and outfielder Billy Hamilton. Martin Maldonado and Gore might have some value somewhere. What the Royals can get in return may not be franchise altering, but anything helps.

Second round of auditions

Losing seasons open windows of opportunity for players trying to prove themselves. When a team no longer cares about wins and losses, it can patiently permit lenghty auditions, trying to find out which players are building blocks and which are merely stop-gaps.

Unfortunately, a few guys who looked like building blocks last season took a big step back this year. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn and outfielders Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio all floundered in 2019, but may get a callback. Each is benefiting from a lack of other options at his position within the organization.

A year ago Cheslor Cuthbert’s career appeared to be dead. But injuries and O’Hearn’s failure gave the 26-year-old another shot at the big leagues, and he’s been at least passable. With Hunter Dozier locking down third base, Cuthbert needs to show he can handle first base and be a run-producer. O’Hearn may return to KC and take some of Cuthbert’s playing time down the stretch. But the opportunity is there for Cuthbert, and he needs to seize it.

Getting an even longer look have been the pitchers at the big league level. With so few big-league quality starting pitchers, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis will receive infinite number of chances to figure things out. Glenn Sparkman may not have as long a leash, as the Royals may try some other options. But if Bailey gets dealt, someone will have to start. Eric Skoglund, suspended for the first half of the season, will probably get another look.

Ready for openers?

With almost no starting pitchers in Triple-A pushing for a promotion, the Royals may experiment with using an “opener” rather than a starter. This strategy is gaining acceptance around the league, and the Royals look ready to give it a try. They’ve been toying with it with flame-throwing Josh Staumont and reclamation project Kyle Zimmer at Triple-A. Both guys have more than enough talent and just need to find the right fit. Opening may be just the ticket to finally tap their ability.

It’s finally Bubba Time!

Fans finally have the long-awaited debut of Gardner-Edgerton product Bubba Starling. At long last, the center fielder was healthy and hitting enough to be called up from Omaha. The Royals held him back, probably making sure his success is sustainable, and trying to get anything they can in exchange for Hamilton.

At worst, Starling is essentially a copy of Hamilton – a great defender who can’t hit. But Starling’s newfound success at the plate provides hope he’s finally ready to thrive in KC. His immense popularity on the Kansas side of the city will provide a boost at the box office, if nothing else.

Late season promotions

Expanded big league rosters and minor-league playoff races always cause a lot of player movement in September. Trades will open roster spots in Kansas City even earlier. The reshuffling the last two months of the season will provide lots of opportunities and some indication of who the Royals see as pieces of the future. Aside from Staumont and Zimmer, guys to watch for in KC will be pitcher Richard Lovelady, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and jack-of-all-trades Erick Mejia.

Movement in the minor leagues will be just as interesting. Will top prospect Khalil Lee get a promotion to Triple-A? Will stud pitchers Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch successfully adjust to Double-A? And will uber-prospect Bobby Witt, Jr., currently at the Arizona rookie league, get promoted to a full-season club? Witt is already 19 and should be ready for the challenge.

Soler’s historic chase

Jorge Soler is on pace to hit 42 home runs. That would easily surpass Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals bear the embarrassment of being baseball’s only team without a 40-homer season in their history. With home runs flying out of parks at a record pace league-wide, the accomplishment might seem somewhat tainted. But juiced balls and a tighter strike zone aside, Soler’s emergence has been a much-needed breakthrough for the power-starved Royals.

Another strong finish

Despite a horrendous overall record, the 2018 Royals finished with a flourish, inspiring great optimism for 2019. But the new season started with a thud, and too many guys – Keller, Junis, O’Hearn, Jorge Lopez – took a step back. It would be refreshing if some prospects could infuse some energy into the club once again this year. Wins and losses won’t matter, but a recovery of some hope could still be attained down the stretch.

 

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Royals look to flip one-year contracts to improve talent pool https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-look-to-flip-one-year-contracts-to-improve-talent-pool/ Fri, 21 Jun 2019 04:11:49 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1433 At the beginning of the 2018 season, the Kansas City Royals hung a placard out for the rest of the league: “For sale.” They brought in Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Blaine Boyer, and brought back Mike Moustakas with the sole intent of trading them for prospects mid-season.

While not making it their intent this year, the Royals once again have a handful of players they may be interested in flipping this summer. Doing so could fetch some helpful minor leaguers, while clearing the way for younger Royals to gain valuable experience. It’s exactly what happened last season, and it’s the only thing that could salvage this wretched campaign.

The players in the clubhouse know it’s coming. It’s a harsh reality, but one they accept. It affects them professionally – who wouldn’t want to be traded from a cellar-dweller to a playoff contender mid season? But it also affects them professionally – should they move their families for what could be only a couple of months?

“It really doesn’t affect your daily approach to things at all,” said Terrance Gore, who was acquired late in the 2018 campaign by the playoff-bound Chicago Cubs from the Royals. “It more affects your family more than anything. You may have to pack up and leave at any point and time on short notice. But as a player it really doesn’t affect you. You just go out there and play the game the way you’ve been playing.

“If it happens, it happens. Sometimes it’s a good thing. Sometimes it’s a bad thing. But leaving the Royals, because I’ve been with the Royals so long, it’s definitely a bad thing, because I’ll always be a Royal no matter where I go. But if it happens to you, it’s just something you have to live with.”

Major League Baseball set a hard deadline for trades this year – July 31 is the cutoff. So deals may start happening a little earlier than in years past.

Players like Gore understand that deft trades at mid-season can change history. When the Royals won the 2015 World Series, it was in large part due to the trade-deadline acquisitions of Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto. And last year, the Royals were on the selling end, shipping Moustakas at the deadline to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jorge Lopez and Brett Phillips.

“Every player does look at it as an opportunity,” Gore said of being traded to a contending team. “It’s a chance to contribute to something special.

“We look at it as a business. Sometimes giving away one player you can get two players in return that will make the team better in the long run. I’m always a Royal, and anything that will help the organization in the long run, I’m cool with it.”

A few one-year flippables on the team might have some value on the trade market. First and foremost is Jake Diekman. While the bullpen has been pretty awful as a whole, the 32-year-old lefty has been tough, with a WHIP barely above 1.00 and more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings. The Royals signed him to a one-year deal knowing he could very well be trade bait.

Sadly neither Wily Peralta nor Brad Boxberger – other relievers on one-year deals – won’t attract similar trade interest.

Homer Bailey’s hot and cold performances might not attract a great haul, but some team in need of a starter might give him a try.

Two one-year position players might bring some prospects, if just the right trade partners can be found.

Martin Maldonado holds tremendous value for any contending team who finds itself in need of a catcher down the stretch. Maldonado is a whiz defensively and has shown he can quickly bond with a pitching staff. He won’t be a difference maker with the bat, but he could save a season for a team in need of a rock behind the plate.

Outfielder Billy Hamilton has failed to provide much offense, but the rest of the league knows what he can do: play great defense and steal bases. A team that could use a late-game pinch runner and defensive replacement could get some real good out of the 28-year-old speed demon. Trading Hamilton would also open a spot for prospect Bubba Starling to finally make his long-awaited debut.

The Royals should do anything and everything necessary to trade all of the players mentioned above. None of them fit the organization’s future plans, and will just be taking up space if they are on the roster after July 31.

And none of them hold any sentimental value to the organization. That cannot be said, however, for Alex Gordon, whose contract runs out after this year as well. Would the Royals actually consider trading the local product, the pillar of the franchise and fixture in the community?

Other teams have traded cornerstone stars at the deadline – Justin Verlander, David Price and Yoenis Cespedes are just a few from recent years. But for a beleaguered club to trade a guy who’s labored faithfully for 13 years is hard to envision.

Other difficult deals to swing could involve guys with more than one year left on their contracts. It was reported (although General Manager Dayton Moore denied it) that the Royals are open to trading nearly everyone on their current roster.

If a deal can be found for Ian Kennedy, the Royals shouldn’t hesitate. He shows some potential as a reliever, but he won’t be with Kansas City past next year, and his contract is an albatross.

Whit Merrifield would probably bring the most in return, and the Royals might be open to dealing him, despite having three very affordable years left on his contract. If Jorge Soler continues to crush home runs, he might also have value on the trade market. And Danny Duffy might be attractive to some team.

Those three players should only be traded for a haul in return, as they each hold value for the ongoing rebuild. But if enough is offered in return, none should be considered untouchable. Gordon might fall in a different category, and it would understandable if the Royals choose to keep him.

Otherwise, let the wheeling and dealing begin!

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Royals Rundown: Hunter Dozier, Bubba Starling, Kyle Zimmer bring hope for jump-start in rebuild process https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-hunter-dozier-bubba-starling-kyle-zimmer-bring-hope-for-jump-start-in-rebuild-process/ Fri, 21 Jun 2019 03:48:56 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1427 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 1 – you can read it by clicking here.

The Major League Baseball annual amateur draft kicks off Monday, and the Kansas City Royals have the mixed blessing of having the second selection. They got that dubious honor by posting a miserable 58-104 record in 2018, but at least they are in position to draft an elite talent to build around.

Should things go as expected, the Royals will wind up with high school shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr., the son of a 16-year big leaguer. That is, if the Orioles don’t unexpectedly pass on college catcher Adley Rutschman, who has long been considered the top prospect this year.

Either way, the Royals are in need of a star to give their rebuild some rocket fuel. Since the days when Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez and pals climbed the ladder to the majors, the farm system has lacked star power.

But some unexpected developments at the top of the organization may provide a needed jump start. Three first round draft choices who were viewed with disappointment, if not written off altogether, may just pay dividends after all.

If over the past couple of years you paid attention to the Royals’ prospect rankings, you would not have found the names of Bubba Starling, Kyle Zimmer and Hunter Dozier. Those three dropped like stones off the prospect lists, until they were eventually disregarded. A gaping hole in the system resulted as the Royals got no benefit from three consecutive top picks.

Starling was considered a project when the Royals selected him with the fifth pick in 2011. He had a glittering three-sport resume, but unpolished tools. When he struggled to hit, and to stay healthy, he slid quickly off the prospect lists. The organization stressed its patience with Starling, but by 2017, he appeared headed for “bust” status.

Holding the fifth pick again in 2012, the Royals took Zimmer, a coveted college pitcher. But strange injuries dogged him, causing him to miss nearly all of 2014 and 2016, and all of 2018. No longer able to retain a player who was never healthy, the Royals released him prior to the 2018 season.

Next up was Dozier. Yes, the same Dozier who is raking in the major leagues in 2019. Taken with the eighth pick in 2013, his perseverance has turned him into a building block for the future. But it wasn’t long ago he was lumped in with Starling and Zimmer as disappointments. Drafted out of college, Dozier’s slow, unspectacular climb through the minors and a season lost to injury, could have been discouraging to him.

“No matter who you are, or where you’re picked, you want to get up here as quick as you can,” Dozier said. “But every guy’s story is different. You have guys like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper that are just phenoms and they get up here at 19. But for me, it took me four years to get up here, and then three full seasons to really get established.”

Dozier learned the hard way how to navigate failure, injury and self-doubt. He said the pressure is greater on high draft picks.

“You can’t put more pressure on yourself just because you’re a first rounder,” said the 27-year-old. “I think once you get drafted, you’re the same as everyone else. You’ve got to prove yourself, and you’ve got to work hard so that you deserve to get moved up from level to level.

“If you don’t play well at a level, then you’ll be stuck there. That’s just how it is. But you can’t put added pressure on yourself. You just have to work hard, do the best you can, and enjoy every level of the process. That makes it that much sweeter when you get up here.”

Zimmer tasted a bit of that sweetness recently. After releasing him in the spring of 2018, the Royals resigned him to a minor league contract, but expectations of his return were dim. Rather than work out with the team, he disappeared to a little-known (at the time) training facility called Driveline Baseball in Washington. He regained his health and rediscovered his dazzling ability. Out of nowhere, he so impressed in spring training that the Royals took him to Kansas City when they broke camp.

Zimmer’s story is still being written. After struggling the first few weeks of the big league season, he was sent to Triple-A for polish. But it’s safe to assume he’ll be back in Kansas City eventually, and he may yet prove a valuable commodity.

“Zimmer getting up here, that’s a great story…all that he went through,” Dozier said. “If he doesn’t get hurt in 2014, he would have been up here four years ago. He’s just got that kind of unbelievable talent.

“He can’t help the injuries he’s faced. It shows what kind of guy he is, to have worked as hard as he has to get back throwing again and competing again. You see how good he is now, and he’ll be back up here soon.”

And now just waiting for a call from Kansas City is Starling. Seemingly unable to hit at any level, his physical gifts appeared they might be wasted. The Royals tried everything to keep him moving up the minor league ladder. But when they were finally poised to promote him to the bigs sometime in 2018, Starling was beset once again by freak injuries. It just didn’t appear to be in the cards for him.

But the breakthrough Kansas City had hoped for Starling may have finally come. He’s stayed healthy thus far in 2019, and is finally making the kind of contact with the bat that will merit a promotion.

“Bubba has had to go over his own hurdles, and I’m sure it hasn’t been exactly like he had planned when he got drafted,” Dozier said. “But each guy has his own story. Bubba has the talent to get up here and do well. He’s got unbelievable talent. He’s playing well right now and if he can show consistency, he’ll be up here soon.”

Recent forecasts of the Royals’ return to competitiveness by 2021 didn’t put much stock in Dozier, and expected nothing from Zimmer and Starling. Suddenly finding them producing is like acquiring three new prospects to the system. If those three former top picks can finally realize their potential, the rebuild will get an unexpected and much needed jump start.

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Royals Rundown: Talent abounds in Kansas City’s farm system https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-talent-abounds-in-kansas-citys-farm-system/ Mon, 08 Apr 2019 02:41:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1317 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on April 6 – you can read it here.

The Kansas City Royals major league season got off to a great start. But quickly reality set in – this team won’t be very good.

Rather than focus on that sad fact, however, Royals fans have somewhere to look for hope. The truly important baseball played this year will be at Wilmington, Delaware, and Lexington, Kentucky, not in Kansas City.

The Royals are doing their best to find a winning combination to put on the field this season. But more importantly, they are trying to ascertain which of the current Royals could play on a playoff contender in 2021 and beyond. Brad Keller and Adalberto Mondesi are definitely keepers. Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez might still be around. Others are auditioning for roles.

But the Royals’ true hope for glory is still in the minors. A couple of solid drafts and some trades for prospects have restocked the developmental system. So while you grin and bear the current reality, keep an eye on the following farm teams, which kicked off their seasons on Thursday.

Omaha Storm Chasers: Several players starting the season for the Triple-A affiliate were only held off the big league squad to retain their service time for a more opportune window. And more than a handful will see time in Kansas City this season.

The big league Royals bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. The Royals elected to start the year with some veteran acquisitions in order to allow a few key prospects to activate their major league service time a little further down the road. But that time will come soon. Richard Lovelady should be an instant upgrade when he’s called up. The Royals might also find some pitching help in Scott Blewett, Josh Staumont and Arnaldo Hernandez.

Nicky Lopez is big-league ready and just waiting for the right time to step into the Royals infield. (If current Royals utility man Chris Owings doesn’t get things going, the right time may come sooner than later.) Humberto Arteaga is in the same boat and plays essentially the same position as Lopez. There will be room for one, if not both, in Kansas City soon.

Former big leaguers Jorge Bonifacio and Brett Phillips have got to prove they can hit in order to be reunited with the Royals. Meanwhile Bubba Starling appears ready to finally realize his immense potential, and a call to KC should happen later this year.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals: Most of the attention at Double-A will be on outfielder Khalil Lee, the Royals’ #2 prospect. He combines elite-level speed, power and athleticism, and just needs more polish. Playing in Lee’s shadow, but not to be overlooked, is Junction City native Nick Heath, who possesses the type of speed that plays well in Kansas City.

The Naturals’ catcher, Meibrys Viloria, is so advanced defensively that when the Royals were in need of a backup last season, Viloria was promoted from the Single-A level all the way to the big leagues. He’s starting the season in Double-A just to make sure he gets to play every day.

Wilmington Blue Rocks: This is the team to watch. The high-A affiliate of the Royals will be bulging with top prospects. In fact, if you want to see what the 2022 big league Royals will look like, just check out a Blue Rocks team photo. Eleven of the Royals’ top 30 prospects, including six of the top seven, started the year in Wilmington.

In last June’s amateur draft, the Royals loaded up on college pitching prospects, and now those elite prospects are all clustered in Wilmington. The Royals’ top rated prospect, Brady Singer, will front a rotation that includes Daniel Lynch (the #4 rated prospect) and Jackson Kowar (#7). That trio may soon make up three-fifths of the Royals’ big league rotation.

MJ Melendez, the Royals’ #3 prospect, will share catching duties with Sebastian Rivero, another prized backstop. Nick Pratto (#5) is at first base.

Seuly Matias, who clubbed 31 homers last season, headlines the outfield as the #6 prospect. He’s joined there by Kyle Isbel (#10), Brewer Hicklen (#13) and Blake Perkins (#23).

The Royals don’t always leave players at Wilmington for the entire season. If the top prospects excel at high-A, they may find themselves fast-tracked to Northwest Arkansas, bringing them one step closer to the big leagues.

Lexington Legends: This pitching staff merits close watch this summer. The rotation is packed with potential in Chris Bubic (#9), Austin Cox (#22) and Jonathan Bowlan (#29), and should soon be bolstered by Carlos Hernandez (#11), Yefri Del Rosario (#12), Yohanse Morel (#20) and Janser Lara (#30), who stayed back in extended spring training. That means seven of the Royals’ top 15 pitching prospects should pass through Lexington this summer.

The most intriguing member of the staff, however, will be Ashe Russell. Picked in the first round of the 2015 amateur draft, Russell ran into off-the-field problems and disappeared for more than a year. But he resurfaced in the Royals’ training program last summer and may finally be ready to realize his potential.

In the field, the Legends will feature the Royals’ #13 and #24 prospects in outfielder Michael Gigliotti and shortstop Jeison Guzman.

Prospect watching can provide a lot of relief during the lean years. Watching from afar as players like Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and the late Yordano Ventura climbed the minor league ladder made all the Royals’ losing prior to 2013 a little more bearable. The same will be true during the current rebuild.

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Royals Rundown: Five storylines to watch as the 2019 season unfolds in Kansas City https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-five-storylines-to-watch-as-the-2019-season-unfolds-in-kansas-city/ Tue, 02 Apr 2019 02:44:21 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1309 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on March 31 – you can read it here.

Baseball seasons are not a sprint. They are most definitely a marathon.

Particularly for bad teams, which the 2019 Royals will most likely be, this means that what fans are talking about at the start of the season is probably not what they’ll be talking about at the end.

That being understood, here are the Royals’ Top 5 Stories for 2019:

1) Emphasis on speed: Baseball may be a marathon, but that didn’t stop the Royals from packing their roster with sprinters. Over the past couple of decades, major league baseball has deemphasized speed, making feast-or-famine power hitters the top commodity.

The Royals, however, have chosen to zig where others zag. Embracing the true concept of “moneyball” – seizing upon undervalued commodities to create mismatches – the Royals have stocked their lineup with guys who cover a lot of ground defensively and create havoc on the basepaths. The Royals won a championship in 2015 by emphasizing defense and relief pitching. But now speed is the name of their game.

To stolen base king Whit Merrifield and blazingly fast Adalberto Mondesi, the Royals have added one of the game’s top speedsters in Billy Hamilton. As if that wasn’t enough, they are retaining the services of a “designated runner” in Terrence Gore, probably the fastest of the group.

The Royals are basically running an experiment on the rest of the league: can you do what others aren’t doing so well that it creates a mismatch? Time will tell. But if the Royals wind up losers, it won’t be because they didn’t try something creative.

2) Salvy’s absence: How much will Salvador Perez, out for the year with an arm injury, be missed? So much of what Perez brings to the team can’t be quantified. So it will be difficult to tell. But he will certainly be missed by adoring fans who love his smile, his comedy and his Salvy Splashes.

In terms of defense, the acquisition of Martin Maldonado will greatly soften the blow. Recently acquired to fill in for Perez, Maldonado has an elite arm and the other defensive skills to go with it. Whether he can immediately step in and manage the pitching staff is questionable. But Perez will be with the team for much of the year, which will help.

3) Rebuilding the bullpen: The Royals bullpen can’t be any worse than it was last season. Four guys – Blaine Boyer, Justin Grimm, Brandon Maurer and Burch Smith – combined to allow 181 hits and 141 runs over 143.2 innings. All four are gone, and the Royals are banking that a couple of newly-acquired veterans will be a tremendous upgrade.

The Royals plan to employ a “closer by committee” approach. Returner Wily Peralta was a perfect in 14 save opportunities last season. He’s joined by Brad Boxberger, who saved 32 games in Arizona last season, and 41 games back in 2015. Also new to the pen will be veteran lefty Jake Diekman.

4) The potential of Mondesi: If you watched the opening day win over Chicago, you saw his rare combination of speed and power. The 23-year-old lashed two triples to open the campaign.

In less than half a season last year, Mondesi cracked 14 homers and stole 32 bases. If he can just get on base at a high enough rate, he will be the Royals’ next superstar.

5) The resurgence of Kyle Zimmer and Bubba Starling: Remember those two names? In 2011 and 2012, the Royals selected Starling, then Zimmer, with their first picks in the amateur draft. They paid them each a lot of money, and placed upon them the hope for their future.

Injury upon injury produced perpetual setbacks for the two prospects. Starling couldn’t hit. Zimmer disappeared completely. And with a gaping hole in their farm system, the Royals couldn’t help but regret the two picks. The book appeared to be all but closed on Starling and Zimmer.

This spring, however, Zimmer performed a Lazarus-like comeback, shocking the Royals in spring camp, then dominating in every live exhibition. Now the guy who when healthy has reputedly the best “stuff” in the Royals organization, is a surprise addition to the big league club. We’ll see if he’s still healthy and effective come September, but for now, his resurgence is a great story.

Starling, meanwhile, finally appeared healthy and able to hit this spring. He’ll start the season at Triple-A, but he might eventually join Zimmer in Kansas City as another successful reclamation project. Getting something out of these two onetime prospects would provide quite a lift to the Royals’ rebuild.

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One Year Later: Friday – Lorenzo Cain https://toddfertigwrites.com/1185-2/ Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:00:34 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1185 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Wednesday’s look at Mike Moustakas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Thursday’s look at Jason Vargas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Friday – Lorenzo Cain, CF: This one hurts.

You could argue that the Royals quickly adjusted to the departure of Hosmer and Vargas, and they brought back Escobar and Moustakas to start 2018. But they let Lorenzo Cain go. And there was just no way they could immediately replace what Cain meant to the team.

Cain was the 2015 Royals best player. His 7.2 WAR total, fourth best among position players in the American League, was by far the highest on the team. Losing him for much of 2016 is a big reason the team dropped off. He was back amongst the best in the game with a 5.3 WAR total in 2017.

The Royals certainly knew they had no one capable of taking up that kind of slack, but there was nothing they could do. Resigning a 32-year-old with a history of injury just didn’t make sense. So they bid Cain farewell and braced for the drop off.

There was a glimmer of misguided hope that minor leaguer Bubba Starling would step up and take some of Cain’s playing time. But Starling doesn’t look like he’ll ever fulfill his immense potential. So the Royals scrambled, playing Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield some in center while searching for other options.

Playing Abraham Almonte in center was a waste of time. But the short employment of Jon Jay in the outfield did exactly what was intended. Jay played well enough in the first couple of months to be traded for prospects.

Next up, the Royals tried Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin, both formerly prized prospects with other teams. And finally, KC acquired Brett Phillips in a trade for Moustakas.

Each of the three has some potential. Herrera has speed, can play numerous positions, and is a switch hitter. Goodwin may have the best bat. And Phillips has an incredible arm to go along with speed. None of the three, however, will ever remind anyone of Cain.

Cain brought the kind of well-rounded performance to the Milwaukee Brewers that led the Royals to two World Series. This year, he was second in the National League in WAR with 6.9, and second in defensive WAR with 2.4. He was the perfect investment for a Brewers team loaded for a postseason run.

He was not, however, the perfect investment for a team in rebuild mode. And the Royals were smart to let him go. He made $14 million in 2018 and will see his salary escalate by a million each of the next four years. He probably won’t be worth $18 million as a 36-year-old in 2022. The Royals will have better ways to spend that kind of money.

The one good thing that came from letting Cain walk was a compensation pick in the 2018 amateur draft – pick 33. The Royals gladly snatched up college pitcher Jackson Kowar. The righty was instantly rated the Royals’ fourth-best prospect and impressed in a half season of A-ball.

The Royals must see Cain as the past, and Kowar as their future. They may not find a centerfielder as productive as Cain for a long time. The search for someone to do the job adequately is underway.

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Royals’ future will be shaped by draft selections made Monday https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-future-will-be-shaped-by-draft-selections-made-monday/ Sun, 10 Jun 2018 00:26:41 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1043 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 2, 2018 – you can read it here.

With hardly any of the fanfare of the annual NFL and NBA drafts, the major league baseball draft, which will begin Monday, will have a long lasting affect on the fortunes of the Royals, a franchise desperate for an infusion of new talent.

Not only will a lot of young amateurs become rich men tomorrow, but the futures of franchises will be largely determined by the selections made. The baseball draft is much more of a crapshoot than are the drafts of the other major sports. A surprisingly small percentage of the young players drafted will ever reach the major leagues, much less make a significant impact on the franchises that invested millions of dollars in them.

With a farm system widely viewed as the worst in baseball, the Royals need to build upon the work they did in the draft a year ago. Fans have their hopes pinned on a crop of 2017 draftees who are currently honing their skills at the A-ball level. The Royals selected high school first baseman Nick Pratto in the first round, then added a couple of other highly thought-of prospects. Based on rankings from this spring, the Royals added their second, third and fourth best prospects in the most recent draft.

They have an excellent opportunity in 2018 to stockpile even more talent. Thanks to compensatory picks awarded for the loss of free agents, the Royals possess four of the top 40 picks in this draft.

It won’t be for several years, however, before we know if the Royals drafted well or not.

Even taking into account slow development, generally you expect a high round draft pick taken out of college to reach the majors in 2 to 3 years, and one from the high school ranks pick to reach within about 5 years. In each case, that puts the player arriving at the big league level at about 23 years of age.

Using this criteria, high school players drafted between 2008 and 2013, and college players drafted between 2010 and 2015 should make up at least a portion of the Royals roster. Some advance a little quicker, some develop a little slower.

With this in mind, the Royals current problems can be blamed in large part upon unproductive drafting in the first round the past several years.

Considering that baseball drafting is very hit and miss, the Royals were considerably effective with their top picks in the 2000s, which led directly to their success in 2014 and 2015. Zach Greinke (drafted in 2002 and flipped for key pieces in 2010), Billy Butler (2004), Alex Gordon (2005), Luke Hochevar (2006), Mike Moustakas (2007) and Eric Hosmer (2008) were all taken while the Royals drafted in enviably high positions each year, due to their dreadful performance at the big league level.

Sadly, time marches on, and the Royals needed to continue their run of success in the first round of the draft to backfill as those players aged and their big league contracts ran out. For a variety of reasons, that hasn’t happened.

Imagine if, in the five years following the drafting of Hosmer in 2008, the Royals had used first round draft picks on two front-line starting pitchers, a legitimate shortstop, third baseman and centerfielder. Those players would all be relatively new to the big leagues and under club control for the next several years. With pieces like that in place, the current rebuild would be more like a reload.

Unfortunately the players described above are not to be found in Kansas City.

In 2009, the Royals drafted Washburn Rural’s own Aaron Crow, a college pitcher who contributed to the Royals rebuild, but was derailed by injuries. In 2010, they took college shortstop Christian Colon, who was with the Royals during their World Series runs, but contributed little and is now unwanted by any team.

Then the really bad luck started. In 2011, the Royals felt compelled to draft Bubba Starling a local stud with limited baseball exposure. In 2012, they selected a coveted college pitcher named Kyle Zimmer. Injuries and poor performance have knocked these two completely off course, and it’s doubtful either will ever produce anything.

In 2013, the Royals drafted Hunter Dozier, who may still contribute something to the big league club, but certainly hasn’t set any worlds on fire.

If you want to make yourself ill, take a few minutes to look over the list of players drafted shortly AFTER the Royals made those selections. You’ll find names like Mike Trout, Chris Sale, Francisco Lindor and George Springer.

The Royals did do one thing for which they deserve credit: they drafted a couple of pitchers in 2013 and 2014 that they traded for key pieces in their World Series run. Pitchers being the commodity that they are, the Royals wisely dealt Sean Manaea and Brandon Finnegan to ensure a championship.

The bad luck continued in 2015 when the Royals used two first round picks on high school pitchers who have thus far been huge disappointments. In 2016, the Royals did not have a first round selection, having forfeited it to sign free agent Ian Kennedy.

So it’s easy to see why the top picks from 2017, and those who will be drafted this week, are so crucial to the Royals rebuild.

Now obviously, just as not all first round picks are sure-fire stars, first rounders aren’t the only ones who make it to the majors. Fortunately, the current Royals include some diamonds plucked from the rough, namely Danny Duffy and Eric Skoglund (3rd round), Jason Adam (5th round), Whit Merrifield (9th round), Kevin McCarthy (16th round), Jakob Junis (29th round) and Tim Hill (32nd round). The Royals need to continue to scour solid big leaguers from the lower rounds. But it’s in the first round they must turn the tide.

The Royals will make some young men very wealthy Monday. Will those draft picks restore the fortunes of the Royals in turn? Kansas City is the only team with four picks in the first round. Draft history shows that not all four of those picks will reach the major leagues, much less turn into stars. But the addition of several quality prospects, combined with the solid class taken in 2017, could go a long ways toward shaping a brighter future for the franchise.

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