Eric Hosmer – Todd Fertig Writes https://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:08:25 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: Mike Montgomery grateful for starting opportunity in Kansas City https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-mike-montgomery-grateful-for-starting-opportunity-in-kansas-city/ Mon, 26 Aug 2019 03:08:25 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1496 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Aug. 24 – you can read it by clicking here.

It was like looking into a crystal ball. When the Kansas City Royals held a Futures Game on April 4, 2011, it was a preview of what would be the nucleus of the 2015 world champion.

Future champions taking the field for that exhibition were Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez, as well as Louis Coleman, and Christian Colon. The Royals’ farm system had recently been rated the best in baseball, and the futures game also featured Wil Myers, who would become an all-star in San Diego.

But the MVP of that exhibition, and the top rated of all the brilliant prospects, went on to win a World Series, just not in Kansas City.

Drafted by Kansas City in the first round of the 2008, pitcher Mike Montgomery was the #14 rated player in the minor leagues in 2011. Two seasons later, he was part of the deal that brought Wade Davis and James Shields from Tampa Bay.

Montgomery watched on TV as his old Royals mates claimed the 2015 title. But he was on the mound on Nov. 2, 2016 when the Chicago Cubs finally broke a 108-year championship drought. He threw the final pitch, thrust his hands into the air as the final out was recorded, and was mobbed by his teammates.

“It was an awesome feeling, that as time goes by, I’ll appreciate it more,” said the 30-year-old left-hander. “In the moment, and even the last few years, I haven’t really taken the time to see it for what it was.”

In the way that life brings things full circle, Montgomery is now back where it all started, traded to the Royals in July.

“Now being here, I can kind of look back on it and say ‘That was an unbelievable accomplishment,’ in what I think was one of the best World Series this game has ever seen. So to have had success in that is something that I can take with me.

“But I don’t want to be known for just that. I want to be a good pitcher for a lot of years. It was a great achievement, but I want to be able to accomplish a lot more than just that before I’m done.”

When Montgomery worked his heroics in Chicago, he did so out of the bullpen. The Cubs played 17 playoff games in that historic run, and Montgomery pitched in 11 of them. He threw some of the most important innings in the history of the franchise.

But there was one problem. Montgomery always saw himself as a starter.

He faithfully did what the Cubs asked, thankful to be in the major leagues, and eager to contend for championships. But the desire to be a starting pitcher never faded. The Cubs knew it, and they obliged. They didn’t have a spot in their rotation, so when they needed a backup catcher, they traded Montgomery to Kansas City for Martin Maldonado.

With their dismal record, the Royals have the luxury of auditioning players for the future. Montgomery will be given every opportunity to demonstrate what he can do in the rotation.

“It’s been good so far,” Montgomery said. “I’ve wanted to start, but the opportunities weren’t there in Chicago. You don’t have a lot of control over things in this game, but when I heard (I would be sent) here, I was super excited. I got drafted by these guys, and they told me when they made the trade, ‘We want you as a starter, and that’s what we want you to be successful at.’ I’m thankful for the opportunity here and I’m just trying to make the most of it.”

When Montgomery achieved elite-prospect status, he did so strictly as a starter. After two years in the Tampa Bay system, Montgomery was traded in 2015 to the Seattle Mariners. He made his big league debut that year, starting 16 games for the Mariners, which included two complete-game shutouts.

But the Mariners moved Montgomery to the bullpen in 2016, then traded him mid-season to Chicago, where Montgomery made history as a reliever. Since then, he’s been used as a “swing man,” starting when the team is shorthanded, but otherwise working in every relief situation possible.

“I didn’t ever get settled into that consistent routine,” Montgomery said about his years in Chicago. “Without that consistent schedule, it’s tough. There were plenty of times where I would start, and then I would come out of the bullpen two days later. So physically it’s hard. Mentally it’s difficult because you never really get that consistency.

“Some people are really good at (the swing role). It’s hard because you’re not able to stay sharp, when you’re coming in in the ninth inning one day, and then starting the game the next day. That’s definitely a tough role. But I’ve done that for a few years, and I felt like I did the best I could at it.

“So I’m glad to just get into one set role and see what I can do. I’ve started enough in my career to really understand that routine. I think now I know what it takes to be successful at that role. So that’s where I’m at now.”

Where Montgomery is at now is exactly where the Royals envisioned him a decade ago, when he and current teammates Perez and Duffy were storming through the minor leagues. He hasn’t forgotten the thrill of taking the Kauffman Stadium mound in 2011, in the starring role of the Royals Futures Game.

“I was a lot different pitcher back then. I was young, with a really live arm. I look back and think, ‘If I knew then what I know now, with a 21-year-old arm, yeah that would be great.’

“But you’re much better off with experience to draw from. I think now – being around the game, being with my fourth team, fourth pitching coach in four years – you just learn a lot that helps you be a better pitcher.

“That was a long time ago. I feel like I’m so much better now. But those are good memories for sure. We had a lot of fun. The fans were excited about the future, and we were excited as well.

“Now me and Duffy and ‘Salvy’ are the only ones here from that group. They had their World Series, and we had one in Chicago. It’s cool how things work out.”

Montgomery is building himself slowly back into a starting pitcher. His seven starts in Kansas City have brought mixed results. But he isn’t afraid to patiently endure the hardships, because he foresees success down the road for the Royals.

“There are good players here. You have to figure out how to win in this game. It takes more than just talent. It’s kind of a chemistry thing. For me, it’s just about taking care of my job, making sure that when I go out there, I’m fully prepared to give the team a chance to win.”

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Royals Rundown: Hunter Dozier, Bubba Starling, Kyle Zimmer bring hope for jump-start in rebuild process https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-hunter-dozier-bubba-starling-kyle-zimmer-bring-hope-for-jump-start-in-rebuild-process/ Fri, 21 Jun 2019 03:48:56 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1427 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 1 – you can read it by clicking here.

The Major League Baseball annual amateur draft kicks off Monday, and the Kansas City Royals have the mixed blessing of having the second selection. They got that dubious honor by posting a miserable 58-104 record in 2018, but at least they are in position to draft an elite talent to build around.

Should things go as expected, the Royals will wind up with high school shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr., the son of a 16-year big leaguer. That is, if the Orioles don’t unexpectedly pass on college catcher Adley Rutschman, who has long been considered the top prospect this year.

Either way, the Royals are in need of a star to give their rebuild some rocket fuel. Since the days when Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez and pals climbed the ladder to the majors, the farm system has lacked star power.

But some unexpected developments at the top of the organization may provide a needed jump start. Three first round draft choices who were viewed with disappointment, if not written off altogether, may just pay dividends after all.

If over the past couple of years you paid attention to the Royals’ prospect rankings, you would not have found the names of Bubba Starling, Kyle Zimmer and Hunter Dozier. Those three dropped like stones off the prospect lists, until they were eventually disregarded. A gaping hole in the system resulted as the Royals got no benefit from three consecutive top picks.

Starling was considered a project when the Royals selected him with the fifth pick in 2011. He had a glittering three-sport resume, but unpolished tools. When he struggled to hit, and to stay healthy, he slid quickly off the prospect lists. The organization stressed its patience with Starling, but by 2017, he appeared headed for “bust” status.

Holding the fifth pick again in 2012, the Royals took Zimmer, a coveted college pitcher. But strange injuries dogged him, causing him to miss nearly all of 2014 and 2016, and all of 2018. No longer able to retain a player who was never healthy, the Royals released him prior to the 2018 season.

Next up was Dozier. Yes, the same Dozier who is raking in the major leagues in 2019. Taken with the eighth pick in 2013, his perseverance has turned him into a building block for the future. But it wasn’t long ago he was lumped in with Starling and Zimmer as disappointments. Drafted out of college, Dozier’s slow, unspectacular climb through the minors and a season lost to injury, could have been discouraging to him.

“No matter who you are, or where you’re picked, you want to get up here as quick as you can,” Dozier said. “But every guy’s story is different. You have guys like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper that are just phenoms and they get up here at 19. But for me, it took me four years to get up here, and then three full seasons to really get established.”

Dozier learned the hard way how to navigate failure, injury and self-doubt. He said the pressure is greater on high draft picks.

“You can’t put more pressure on yourself just because you’re a first rounder,” said the 27-year-old. “I think once you get drafted, you’re the same as everyone else. You’ve got to prove yourself, and you’ve got to work hard so that you deserve to get moved up from level to level.

“If you don’t play well at a level, then you’ll be stuck there. That’s just how it is. But you can’t put added pressure on yourself. You just have to work hard, do the best you can, and enjoy every level of the process. That makes it that much sweeter when you get up here.”

Zimmer tasted a bit of that sweetness recently. After releasing him in the spring of 2018, the Royals resigned him to a minor league contract, but expectations of his return were dim. Rather than work out with the team, he disappeared to a little-known (at the time) training facility called Driveline Baseball in Washington. He regained his health and rediscovered his dazzling ability. Out of nowhere, he so impressed in spring training that the Royals took him to Kansas City when they broke camp.

Zimmer’s story is still being written. After struggling the first few weeks of the big league season, he was sent to Triple-A for polish. But it’s safe to assume he’ll be back in Kansas City eventually, and he may yet prove a valuable commodity.

“Zimmer getting up here, that’s a great story…all that he went through,” Dozier said. “If he doesn’t get hurt in 2014, he would have been up here four years ago. He’s just got that kind of unbelievable talent.

“He can’t help the injuries he’s faced. It shows what kind of guy he is, to have worked as hard as he has to get back throwing again and competing again. You see how good he is now, and he’ll be back up here soon.”

And now just waiting for a call from Kansas City is Starling. Seemingly unable to hit at any level, his physical gifts appeared they might be wasted. The Royals tried everything to keep him moving up the minor league ladder. But when they were finally poised to promote him to the bigs sometime in 2018, Starling was beset once again by freak injuries. It just didn’t appear to be in the cards for him.

But the breakthrough Kansas City had hoped for Starling may have finally come. He’s stayed healthy thus far in 2019, and is finally making the kind of contact with the bat that will merit a promotion.

“Bubba has had to go over his own hurdles, and I’m sure it hasn’t been exactly like he had planned when he got drafted,” Dozier said. “But each guy has his own story. Bubba has the talent to get up here and do well. He’s got unbelievable talent. He’s playing well right now and if he can show consistency, he’ll be up here soon.”

Recent forecasts of the Royals’ return to competitiveness by 2021 didn’t put much stock in Dozier, and expected nothing from Zimmer and Starling. Suddenly finding them producing is like acquiring three new prospects to the system. If those three former top picks can finally realize their potential, the rebuild will get an unexpected and much needed jump start.

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Royals Rundown: Royals farm system flush with potential at catcher, but can any of them replace Salvy? https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-royals-farm-system-flush-with-potential-at-catcher-but-can-any-of-them-replace-salvy/ Mon, 27 May 2019 18:21:52 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1373 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on May 25 – you can read it by clicking here.

Throughout the Kansas City Royals’ youth movement of 2011 to 2013, the championship teams of 2014 and 2015, and now the current rebuild, one thing remained constant – elite play at the catcher spot.

Early on, Salvador Perez flew under the radar as the heralded group of prospects, including Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy, progressed through the minor leagues. But once they reached the majors, he exceeded them all. Perez has won five Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards as the top hitter at his position, and played in six all-star games. He was named the Most Valuable Player of the 2015 World Series.

But as Robert Frost once wrote, nothing gold can stay, not even a Gold Glove catcher. Sooner or later (depending upon how the Royals handle his next contract negotiation), Perez will eventually have to be replaced. One of the biggest downfalls of the Royals organization has been its inability to backfill for stars like Hosmer, Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain when they inevitably moved on.

That void appeared to rear its head at catcher this spring when Perez was unexpectedly derailed by an arm injury. In lieu of handing the catching duties to backup Cam Gallagher or promoting a minor leaguer prematurely, they signed fellow Gold Glove winner Martin Maldonado as a one-year stand in for Perez. So the play at catcher in Kansas City continues at an elite level, but only on defense. Maldonado is no match for Perez with the bat.

Perez’ injury may be a signal that the end is near. He is expected back next season, but age and injuries will cause the Royals to think long and hard about extending his contract.

In the long run, replacing Perez may not be as difficult as one might fear. The Royals actually appear to have an enviable collection of prospects who may be ready to step in when the next opportunity arises. Of the organization’s top 30 prospects, three are catchers. At nearly every level of the minors, there is at least one, if not more, heralded receiver striving to eventually emerge from Perez’ imposing shadow.

“I spent a lot of time with them (in spring training) and got to watch them go about their business. They look pretty good,” Gallagher said about the minor leaguers who gathered in Surprise, Ariz. prior to the season.

Gallagher described catcher as a position that requires a studious and thoughtful approach.

“There’s a lot that goes into it and at each level that you go up, there’s more preparation that goes in,” said the 26-year-old backstop. “There’s more information available and the game planning becomes more detailed. You have got to do your homework in order to be ready.

“The main priority is behind the plate – handling the pitching staff, having a game plan, calling a good game. Those are the things that don’t show up in the box score. I feel like I’m just getting the hang of it.

“Development defensively just takes a lot of time. Up here, the bat is always a plus. If you get a catcher who can really catch and hit, he’s an All-Star.”

An All-Star like Perez. Topping the list of prospects to follow in Perez’ footsteps is MJ Melendez, the organization’s third rated prospect. Drafted in the second round in 2017, Melendez was recently ranked the seventh best catching prospect in all the minor leagues by MLB.com.

“I spent a little time with him this spring, and he’s got some off-the-charts tools,” Gallagher said. “He’s still maybe a little bit raw, but he’s going to be a really good player.”

Melendez’ development may take longer than prospect watchers initially hoped. Promoted to the high-A level this season, Melendez has flailed miserably at the plate. His progress will be slowed dramatically until he gets the problem rectified.

Recently making a huge jump in the eyes of talent evaluators was Melendez’ current teammate Sebastian Rivero. The 20-year-old native of Venezuela (which also produced Perez) is ranked 27th amongst Royals prospects, and is splitting the catching duties with Melendez at Wilmington.

“This spring I was most impressed with Rivero, honestly,” Gallagher said. “He went about his business the right way. I really respect the way he handled himself. He may not get quite the attention that some of the other guys do, but he came in and did really well. I think he’s going to be a really good player.”

Another defense-first catcher, Meibrys Viloria, has a jump on Melendez and Rivero in that he’s already donned the Royals’ uniform. When the Royals traded Drew Butera and needed a fill-in for Perez last season, they elevated Viloria all the way from A-ball to the big leagues. He played 10 games as a 21-year-old, gaining valuable insight into what it takes to play at the highest level. But when Perez went down in the spring, the Royals believed Viloria needed more seasoning in the minors, necessitating the signing of Maldonado.

The problem is, like Melendez, Rivero and Viloria have struggled mightily with the bat in 2019. None of the three merits a promotion midseason. In fact, of all the Royals’ minor league catchers, only the Omaha Storm Chasers’ Nick Dini is having a good season at the plate. But the 25-year-old Dini is not considered much of a prospect.

One dramatic twist could drastically change the outlook for the catcher position. Adley Rutschman, catcher at Oregon State, has long been considered the top prospect in the 2019 draft. So much so, major league teams were tempted to “Play Badly For Adley.”

The Royals hold the second pick and will watch anxiously the selection of the Baltimore Orioles at number one. Should the Orioles, for whatever reason, pass on Rutschman to draft other prospect, the Royals would be in a position to swoop in.

The Royals’ highly regarded collection of catchers need to get it going with the bat if they hope to someday adequately replace the great Salvador Perez. But if the Royals should have the chance to add Rutschman, they might just opt to greatly enhance their present collection of catchers.

 

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One Year Later: Friday – Lorenzo Cain https://toddfertigwrites.com/1185-2/ Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:00:34 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1185 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Wednesday’s look at Mike Moustakas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Thursday’s look at Jason Vargas and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Friday – Lorenzo Cain, CF: This one hurts.

You could argue that the Royals quickly adjusted to the departure of Hosmer and Vargas, and they brought back Escobar and Moustakas to start 2018. But they let Lorenzo Cain go. And there was just no way they could immediately replace what Cain meant to the team.

Cain was the 2015 Royals best player. His 7.2 WAR total, fourth best among position players in the American League, was by far the highest on the team. Losing him for much of 2016 is a big reason the team dropped off. He was back amongst the best in the game with a 5.3 WAR total in 2017.

The Royals certainly knew they had no one capable of taking up that kind of slack, but there was nothing they could do. Resigning a 32-year-old with a history of injury just didn’t make sense. So they bid Cain farewell and braced for the drop off.

There was a glimmer of misguided hope that minor leaguer Bubba Starling would step up and take some of Cain’s playing time. But Starling doesn’t look like he’ll ever fulfill his immense potential. So the Royals scrambled, playing Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield some in center while searching for other options.

Playing Abraham Almonte in center was a waste of time. But the short employment of Jon Jay in the outfield did exactly what was intended. Jay played well enough in the first couple of months to be traded for prospects.

Next up, the Royals tried Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin, both formerly prized prospects with other teams. And finally, KC acquired Brett Phillips in a trade for Moustakas.

Each of the three has some potential. Herrera has speed, can play numerous positions, and is a switch hitter. Goodwin may have the best bat. And Phillips has an incredible arm to go along with speed. None of the three, however, will ever remind anyone of Cain.

Cain brought the kind of well-rounded performance to the Milwaukee Brewers that led the Royals to two World Series. This year, he was second in the National League in WAR with 6.9, and second in defensive WAR with 2.4. He was the perfect investment for a Brewers team loaded for a postseason run.

He was not, however, the perfect investment for a team in rebuild mode. And the Royals were smart to let him go. He made $14 million in 2018 and will see his salary escalate by a million each of the next four years. He probably won’t be worth $18 million as a 36-year-old in 2022. The Royals will have better ways to spend that kind of money.

The one good thing that came from letting Cain walk was a compensation pick in the 2018 amateur draft – pick 33. The Royals gladly snatched up college pitcher Jackson Kowar. The righty was instantly rated the Royals’ fourth-best prospect and impressed in a half season of A-ball.

The Royals must see Cain as the past, and Kowar as their future. They may not find a centerfielder as productive as Cain for a long time. The search for someone to do the job adequately is underway.

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One Year Later: Wednesday – Mike Moustakas https://toddfertigwrites.com/one-year-later-wednesday-mike-moustakas/ Wed, 17 Oct 2018 17:00:04 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1179 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Read Tuesday’s look at Alcides Escobar and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Wednesday – Mike Moustakas, 3B: Unlike Hosmer, the Royals had no intention of resigning Moustakas after the 2017 season. But in a strange twist of fate, there was so little interest in the free agent third baseman, Moustakas was left dangling until spring training.

One thing seems to be true about Royals General Manager Dayton Moore: he seems to be able capitalize on undervalued assets. While he had Cheslor Cuthbert ready to step into the third base role full time, Moore recognized the potential for a sign and trade with Moustakas. He brought Moose back on what everyone knew was a very temporary basis.

So Moustakas gave the Royals more or less two-thirds of a season. With 20 home runs he further cemented his place in Royals history – he now stands in ninth place in homers with 139. He produced 2.1 WAR in 98 games, heading for one of the best seasons of his career.

But on July 27 he was traded. And that’s where this story begins.

Hunter Dozier had been with the Royals most of the season, and wasn’t producing much at first base. But when Moustakas was dealt, it opened the door for Dozier to play semi-regularly at third for the last two months of the season. He took some positive steps, hitting .254 with 6 homers and 20 RBI the final two months. During that same period, Moose hit .256 with 8 homers and 33 RBI for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Dozier hasn’t figured out how to get on base as regularly as Moose. He probably doesn’t field at third base as well as Moose. But he runs well and is more athletic. There is potential there.

The wild card moving forward in the long-term replacement of Moustakas will be Cuthbert. In 2016, his one opportunity to play every day at third base, Cuthbert hit a respectable .274 with 12 homers as a 23-year-old. He looked like he might be the heir apparent to Moose.

But in the rare periods that he hasn’t been injured since 2016, Cuthbert has been ineffective. The Royals are loath to part with a player of his youth and potential, but roster dynamics have his future in jeopardy.

But the real story here isn’t just how Dozier or Cuthbert serve in Moustakas’ absence. The real story is what KC will get out of outfielder Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez, the two players they received from the Brewers in return for Moustakas.

Phillips struggled mightily in his two-month audition. The poor guy just can’t keep from striking out. Phillips went down hacking 50 times in just 112 at bats for Kansas City. His inability to get on base neutralized his speed on the basepaths.

Still, the Royals love his tools, particularly his arm and ability to cover ground in centerfield. For that reason, they will be very patient with him.

They can afford to be patient with Lopez, too. The 25-year-old will get every opportunity to hold a spot in the pitching rotation. In seven starts with KC, Lopez was hot and cold, but showed enough potential for the Royals to give him ample opportunities.

So the Royals got to enjoy four additional months of one of their most popular figures in Moustakas, giving fans something to relish during the bleakest of seasons. And they received two prospects for him at the deadline.

It’s bittersweet to watch Moustakas in the playoffs with Milwaukee. But the Royals will probably be wise to move on from Moustakas from a long-term perspective. He’s 30 years old, and has a body that doesn’t look to age well. Even if he is available at a low price this offseason, the Royals would be better served to invest financially in other places.

But to come out on top in the replacement of Moose, the Royals need for some combination of Dozier, Cuthbert, Phillips and Lopez to be part of the future.

 

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One Year Later: Tuesday – Alcides Escobar https://toddfertigwrites.com/one-year-later-tuesday-alcides-escobar/ Tue, 16 Oct 2018 17:08:07 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1174 The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for the core of the club that reached two World Series. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

How are those players doing today, and how does the Royals’ replacement plan look? This week, I’m taking a look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Read Monday’s look at Eric Hosmer and the Royals’ plan to replace him.

Tuesday – Alcides Escobar, SS: When the Royals said goodbye to Escobar last October, no one really believed he would attract much attention as a free agent. Therefore it wasn’t much of a surprise that he was available at a bargain basement price.

But it was disappointing that he was brought back because (apparently) the club didn’t believe Adalberto Mondesi was ready to replace him. Escobar wore fans out by getting all of the starts at short through the All-Star break. Finally Mondesi was given a shot, and he displayed the potential the Royals had hoped for.

Escobar played 140 games, coming to the plate 485 times. But in seasons past, he has averaged 598 at bats per season, playing essentially every game.

Mondesi played in 75 games, coming to the plate 275 times. His combination of power and speed is shocking. He hit 14 homers, many of which traveled more than 400 feet, and he stole 32 bases, in less than half a season.

Projected out to an Escobar-like 600 at bats, Mondesi would have hit about 30 homers and steal 70 bases this season. No one with 30 homers has ever stolen more than 52 (Barry Bonds in 1990).

There are still some issues Mondesi will have to work through. Like Escobar, Mondesi has yet to figure out how to get on base consistently enough. Mondesi’s on-base percentage in 2017 (.306) isn’t enough better than Esky’s anemic .279 in 5,307 career at bats as a Royal. And unlike Escobar, Mondesi is striking out way too much. His rate of a strikeout every 3.57 at bats is not just worse than Esky’s rate of one every 6.8 at bats, it’s cause of considerable alarm.

But the upside is off the charts. Escobar hit 36 homers in eight seasons as a Royal. He averaged a home run every 130 at bats. This season, Mondesi hit a homer once every 19.6 at bats.

In less than half a year, Mondesi produced a crazy 3.2 WAR. Escobar has been below 0.6 WAR each of the past four seasons. The Royals must be licking their chops over Mondesi’s potential and will see a huge upgrade at the shortstop position moving forward.

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One Year Later: Monday – Eric Hosmer https://toddfertigwrites.com/replacement-players-monday-eric-hosmer/ Tue, 16 Oct 2018 02:33:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1169 The final Royals game of 2018 felt incredibly different than 2017.

The last game of the 2017 season was the “royal” sendoff for what was perceived as the core of the club that reached two World Series and remained in the hunt for two years after that. Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Jason Vargas were toasted as departing heroes. Tears were shed at the perceived end of an era.

Fast forward a year later, and in the finale a collection of mostly upstarts battled to win a game that couldn’t have mattered less to anyone else. They were buried at the bottom of the league. But this group had freshly tasted winning baseball and was eager to prove they could belonged.

Anyone who hadn’t been paying attention would see the Royals’ abysmal 58-104 record and disregard this new band as of no worth. But anyone who watched the Royals in August and September of 2018 knew this group of replacement players was up to something.

It could be argued, and is most certainly correct, that the 2014 and 2015 Royals were greater than the sum of their parts. None of those players would be confused for Mike Trout, or Clayton Kershaw, or any of the other best players those seasons. Statistically they weren’t all that special.

But still, a look at the statistics of those departed players is encouraging that this new group might be capable taking up the slack. And that look might prove that the Royals, and Dayton Moore, were wise to head on this new course.

Let’s look at each of the five players celebrated on the last day of 2017 and what the Royals are doing at their respective positions:

Monday – Eric Hosmer, 1B: The Royals didn’t let Hosmer depart without a fight, but they must certainly be happy with the way things turned out. By letting him walk, they saved more than $100 million (the San Diego Padres paid him $144 million) and drafted Daniel Lynch with a compensation pick they received for letting Hosmer walk.

Hosmer gave a weak debut performance for San Diego. There’s no way to sugar coat it. The Padres must be panicked about this investment. He hit just .253 and continued to struggle getting the ball over the fence. He produced an embarrassing 1.4 WAR. Embarrassing, that is, for someone who made $21 million.

The Royals didn’t plug any one player into Hosmer’s spot, instead keeping it a revolving door. But the revelation of Ryan O’Hearn in the fall gives some hope the position will settle down. O’Hearn scored a 1.1 WAR in just 44 games by tattooing right-handed pitching.

To be fair, Hosmer seems to be an every-other-year star. In 2013 he recorded a 3.5 WAR. In 2015 he was up to 3.6. Last year, he posted his career best 4.1.

And let there be no confusion here. The Royals have good reason to have wanted to keep Hosmer long-term. He’s a manager’s dream when it comes to speaking to the media, leading the clubhouse, and especially relating to the community. From his Hollywood hairstyle and 100-watt style to his ability to speak both English and Spanish well, you just don’t replace someone like Hosmer.

But if, as an everyday player, O’Hearn produces anywhere near what Hosmer does, the Royals will gladly spread that $21 million around on better investments, while O’Hearn toils for something close to the league minimum.

Making this transition even more pleasant for the Royals is Lynch, who turned out to be a beast in the minor leagues and is now one of the Royals’ hottest pitching prospects. Time will tell if Lynch develops into a big league starter. If he does, this tilts the balance drastically in the Royals’ favor.

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Multitude of changes have KC looking up in second half of season https://toddfertigwrites.com/multitude-of-changes-have-kc-looking-up-in-second-half-of-season/ Tue, 18 Sep 2018 00:44:23 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1146 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept 15 – you can read it here.

The Royals have essentially played two seasons in 2018. The first season, the disastrous one in which a group of veterans put up a 27-68 record at the All-Star break, had people worried they might just be the worst team in history (seriously!)

Then they played a second season, going for youth and speed. That team has gone 24-28 since the All-Star break and bolstered the minor league system at the same time.

Some of the choices made by Dayton Moore over the past nine months that produced such a dramatic switch were forced upon him by financial realities. Some were so obviously necessary (like moving Alcides Escobar aside for Adalberto Mondesi) that fans couldn’t figure out what took so long. And a few took serious nerve and ingenuity by Moore.

The list is long of players Kansas City jettisoned. Here’s how those moves are working out so far.

Changes prior to the 2018 season:

Eric Hosmer – The Royals allegedly tried hard to entice Hosmer to return to Kansas City with a hefty contract. Hosmer ultimately opted to sign with the San Diego Padres, and beloved as Hosmer was in Kansas City, the Royals lucked out on this one.

The Royals went with stopgap Lucas Duda and rookie Hunter Dozier at first base. But in the past month, Ryan O’Hearn has asserted himself as the first baseman of the immediate future. Hosmer has underperformed on his enormous contract with 16 homers and 62 RBI while playing essentially every day. O’Hearn has 10 homers and 24 RBI in less than one-fifth as many at bats. Hosmer’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total is just 0.9, while O’Hearn’s is already 1.2.

Lorenzo Cain – The Royals were loath to let Cain depart, but they feared his age and injury history made him a poor investment for a rebuilding team. They will ultimately be proved right, but it comes as no surprise Cain is tearing up the National League. He’s currently batting .313 with a .403 on-base percentage. In terms of WAR, Cain is the second best position player in the National League.

In Cain’s absence, the Royals have employed several options in centerfield, primarily Jon Jay (more on him later). None was a permanent fix, and current frontrunner Brett Phillips, acquired midseason, may not be either.

As compensation for letting Cain and Hosmer depart via free agency, the Royals received additional draft picks (in the 33rd and 34th slot) in the 2018 draft. By picking college pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch, the Royals may have added two pieces of their starting rotation of the very near future.

The Royals wouldn’t have been a good team in 2018 had they resigned Cain, and they were right to rebuild without him. But there is no doubt, they would be a much better team today with him. The same can’t be said about Hosmer.

Jason Vargas – The Royals let their top starting pitcher from 2017 walk, judging correctly that the 34 year old’s 18-11 record was unrepeatable. They were right. The New York Mets are paying Vargas $6 million for disastrous output. They are on the hook for $16 million more over the next two seasons, and the results are likely to get worse.

Vargas’ rotation spot was handed to Jakob Junis, and the 25-year-old looks like a building block of the future.

Brandon Moss – For some inexplicable reason, the Oakland A’s were willing to trade two minor league pitchers for Moss and pitcher Ryan Buchter. Moss’ skills had slipped to the point he was released by Oakland in spring training, and no other team wants him.

In exchange for Moss, the Royals acquired Heath Fillmyer and minor leaguer Jesse Hahn. Fillmyer has made some good starts in Kansas City, and Hahn, injured all of 2018, still holds some promise.

By not wasting playing time on Moss, the Royals have been able to audition outfielders like Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin.

Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander – This one hurts when you look just at 2018. The Royals traded these two essentially to rid themselves of Soria’s contract. But Alexander was a valuable young piece of the bullpen and he’s been very good for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Soria was rejuvenated with the Chicago White Sox.

The Royals received two quality prospects in Trevor Oaks and Erick Mejia, but neither is setting any worlds on fire.

The Royals shipped out a long list of pitchers after 2017, including Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Peter Moylan, Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood. The good news is the Royals are giving all those innings to young pitchers who may be good in the future.

Changes during the 2018 season:

Jon Jay – Jay was very good in a short stint with the Royals, but he was signed expressly to flip for prospects. Eighteen-year-old Elvis Luciano has loads of talent and time to develop it. Gabe Speier is an organizational filler who may reach the big leagues eventually.

Kelvin Herrera – It was essential not only that Herrera be traded, but that it be done at just the right time. Score a big win here for Moore. Herrera was near perfect for half a season in Kansas City. He was dealt for three prospects and promptly went into decline.

The return for Herrera has been solid. Kelvin Gutierrez, a minor league third baseman who is exceeding expectations at Double A. Depending on how Dozier fares, Gutierrez may be the Royals third baseman of the future. Blake Perkins is a talented outfielder who needs time to develop. Another 18-year-old named Yohanse Morel was thrown in and may be a player eventually.

Mike Moustakas – Moustakas has been good for the Milwaukee Brewers since being dealt on July 27 – six homers and a .277 average. But trading him was the only choice.

The Royals hoped to rake in the prospects for Moose. They may not have done that, but pitcher Jorge Lopez nearly pitched a perfect game last week, and has been ok in his other five starts. Brett Phillips has loads of skill, but will have to learn to hit. Like Lopez, his talent is intriguing.

Having won 13 of 19 since August 24, the new season is inspiring hope. Like manager Ned Yost said Friday night, “It’s starting to get fun again.”

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New wave of talent rising through KC’s ranks https://toddfertigwrites.com/new-wave-of-talent-rising-through-kcs-ranks/ Mon, 10 Sep 2018 04:10:10 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1143 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 8 – you can read it here.

The Kansas City Royals went 71-91 in 2011. While that sounds great in comparison to the current iteration, it was at the time considered by most to be just another rotten season by an inept franchise.

But anyone really paying attention might have noticed that on May 6 of that year, a rookie named Eric Hosmer was promoted to the big leagues at just 21 years of age.

Just a few days later, on May 18, Hosmer was joined by 22-year-old pitcher Danny Duffy. The two knew each other well, having played together at nearly every level of the minor leagues.

On June 11, 22-year-old Mike Moustakas joined the party. Then on August 10, Salvador Perez got called up not long after his 21st birthday. And on Sept. 21, yet another 21 year old, flame-throwing reliever Kelvin Herrera, was promoted to the big leagues.

At the time, hardly anyone noticed the tidal wave of talent crashing upon Kauffman Stadium. To some it might have appeared to be another move of desperation by a team without direction. But that wave had been planned, nurtured and timed with great precision.

Fewer still noticed when pitcher Greg Holland and outfielder Jarrod Dyson debuted in Kansas City at the tail end of 2010. But those seven players were a wave drafted or signed to international free agent deals by General Manager Dayton Moore several years earlier. Moore wasn’t just collecting talented players either. He was uniting them at the lowest levels of the minors, where they could play video games and cards together, go out at night together (years before they could legally buy a drink), sleep on the bus together, and learn the game together.

“In the minor leagues you don’t really have anybody else,” Duffy said. “You spend more time with these guys than with your own family. Hosmer is one of my best friends. Same with Moose. Same with Salvy, and so forth. That’s not only because of what we’ve done here (in Kansas City) but the road we took to get here.”

In a game where it’s hard to find one or two good major leaguers in one year, Moore signed Perez and Herrera as 16-year-olds in 2006, the same year he lucked into Dyson in the 50th round. The 2007 draft brought Moustakas (first round), Duffy (third round) and Holland (tenth round). Hosmer was added in the first round of 2008.

Duffy mentioned several others when recalling the wave of talent that came up around him, including Wil Myers, John Lamb and Mike Montgomery, each of whom was traded for key components of the championship club.

“I wouldn’t say we felt pressure. I think it’s exciting more than anything,” Duffy recalled. “We just had a good time playing. It feels, looking back, like it was one of the best Double-A teams ever. We were like 94-56 when you include the playoffs.”

Coming up together experiencing success is part of the process. Putting that many good players together should foster a winning culture that moves with them as they matriculate up the minor league ladder.

Moore is trying to replicate that wave again, and the ripple is currently building strength at Lexington, Kentucky, home of the Single-A Legends. The 2017 amateur draft brought a highly-regarded cohort that forms the foundation for the wave. First baseman Nick Pratto, catcher M.J. Melendez, pitcher Daniel Tillo and outfielder Michael Gigliotti, drafted in the first through fourth rounds, respectively, gave the farm system an instant boost. After getting their feet wet in rookie ball, the quartet, plus seventh round pick outfielder Brewer Hicklen, moved up to Lexington this spring.

The 2018 draft, heavy on college pitchers, doubled the size of the wave instantly. Added to the group at Lexington during the summer were pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch and outfielder Kyle Isbel.

The prospects from those two drafts are teamed with a handful of international signings including sensational outfielder Seuly Matias, who leads all of minor league baseball in home runs. In all, Lexington served as home to 13 of the Royals’ top 30 prospects, including six of the top 10. They have nearly every position covered, apart from second and third base, with a top 30 prospect. And they have six top 30 pitchers.

As happened with Duffy and friends, the Lexington wave is experiencing winning. The Legends, who finished their regular season schedule on Labor Day, are currently battling in the South Atlantic League playoffs.

“Learning to win together is a big part of it,” said Duffy. “We won in the Midwest League, we won in the Texas League, we won in the Pacific Coast League three times. We were pretty successful in the minor leagues. Fortunately it translated to the big leagues. We won a World Series and almost another one.

“It’s not about the kind of players they are, but how great these guys are, how good these people are off the field. I have no doubt that Dayton is going to put together the same type of clientele as far as character goes.”

Duffy has seen the majority of the players making up his wave depart over the years. Only he and Perez remain. He admits it’s hard to watch players you’ve grown up with go their separate ways.

“My advice to (the Lexington team) would be just to enjoy every moment of it, because it goes by really quick. Once you get here, you start seeing people part ways. So just enjoy your time together because that’s what it’s all about.

“It happened very fast. I had a lot of people telling me it would go by really quick, and yet you don’t see it until it’s gone.”

The Lexington wave will take time to arrive. Most of those players will advance just one rung of the minor league ladder per year. That means you won’t see most of them on your TV any sooner than 2021.

Duffy said he would encourage the next wave to try to soak up each day, while still keeping the end goal in mind and working hard towards it.

“You’re always looking to get to the big leagues. That’s your number one goal and the destination. But there is something to be said for trying to just enjoy where you are each day. I would tell those guys coming up to just enjoy every moment. Enjoy the Arizona days, even though they’re hot. Enjoy the 12-hour bus rides. Because it’s a simple time. It doesn’t seem like it in the moment, but you have a lot of fun in front of you if you just enjoy it.”

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Native Kansas City son Jason Adam relishing rookie season with Royals https://toddfertigwrites.com/native-kansas-city-son-jason-adam-relishing-rookie-season-with-royals/ Fri, 24 Aug 2018 02:06:03 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1099 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 18, 2018 – you can read it here.

Kansas City is a baseball town.

The saying sounded pretty ridiculous during the Royals’ 30 years of futility between the 1985 championship and the one earned in 2015. And it sounds silly now as the current edition of the Royals barrels toward its worst record in history. Yet it was often repeated during those bleak years, as though a reminder that if the product at Kauffman Stadium was ever good, the city would demonstrate uncommon passion.

The city’s reputation dates back at least to the birth of the minor league Kansas City Blues in 1888. In the days before TV, when fans eagerly supported local baseball, the Blues were joined in Kansas City by strong black baseball teams, which developed into the Kansas City Monarchs in 1920.

In 1955, major league baseball finally moved west of the Mississippi River when the Philadelphia A’s relocated to Kansas City. The dreadful A’s were replaced in Kansas City by the Royals in 1969, and the city soon had a winner at the highest level.

So the bleak years of the Royals have dampened, but not quenched, the spirit of the city. And one native son is working hard to bring winning back to Kansas City once again.

Rookie Jason Adam, a product of Blue Valley Northwest High School in Overland Park, is one of a host of rookies the Royals are experimenting with in this rebuilding season.

Adam took a circuitous path to the major league stadium he grew up going to as a child. Drafted by the Royals out of high school in 2010, Adam seemed destined to pitch in Kauffman Stadium. But trades and injuries delayed that destiny for nearly a decade.

“I loved the Royals growing up,” Adam said. “This stadium was special to me, and I always loved to come to the games, even when they would struggle.”

And struggle they did. From the time Adam was born in 1991 until he graduated high school, the Royals lost nearly 60 percent of their games, lost 90 or more games 11 times, and never once reached the playoffs. Yet Adam remained loyal.

“I always had faith,” the right-handed reliever said. “I understood that is kind of how it works in a small market. You kind of go through ups and downs. So it was really fun seeing when this team finally won the World Series. I wish I could have been a part of it. But it was so much fun just being from Kansas City.”

Ironically, Adam not being “part of it” actually helped bring a pennant to his city. Adam was in the low minors when Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and other products of the farm system began matriculating to the big leagues. A starting pitcher making his mark in the minors, Adam had to feel he was going to be a part of that much-anticipated core group in Kansas City.

But in 2014, with a playoff berth finally within reach, the Royals traded Adam for major league first baseman/designated hitter Josh Willingham. The late season acquisition of Willingham helped the Royals earn a wild card slot, and eventually reach the World Series. So, in a sense, Adam played a part.

Once with Minnesota, injuries derailed his progress. Numerous surgeries kept him from pitching in 2015 and 2016. The Twins finally gave up on him. The San Diego Padres gave him a brief look in 2017, but cut him loose before the season was up.

The Royals never stopped following their former draft pick, and they brought him into their system. And in May of 2018, the years of rehab ultimately paid off. Adam finally pitched in the stadium he’d come to so many times to watch his beloved Royals.

Being a member of the Royals makes reaching the majors all the more special, Adam said. And he believes it is making the experience more fun for his family and friends as well.

“It definitely adds another element to the excitement of playing for the Royals,” said the 27-year-old. “I always say that I’m playing for an audience of one, and that’s Jesus. But it’s fun to know that I’ve got my family and my friends here every night, and they can enjoy it even more than they used to enjoy it.”

Adam laughed when asked if he notices familiar faces in the crowd during a game at Kauffman Stadium

“I don’t really see people in the stands while I’m on the field. But when I’m down in the bullpen, guys I know will come down and heckle me a little, and it’s really fun to see people down there. But before and after games, for sure, I try to see the people that I know. Sometimes after a game I’ll hear someone yell my name, and I’m like ‘Is that someone I know?’ That’s really fun.”

Out of uniform, Adam frequently bumps into old friends, schoolmates and high school rivals around Kansas City. Those friendships remain unchanged, he said.

“It’s still the same old, same old. They still treat me just like they did before. I’ve got awesome friends here in Kansas City, and I’m thankful for that.”

Polls of major league players often reveal opponents’ appreciation for Kansas City as one of their favorite places to visit. That fact comes as no surprise to the Overland Park native.

“I’m glad to see Kansas City get that recognition,” Adam said. “Growing up in Kansas I was always like ‘I can’t wait to get out and see everything.’ But once I got out I was like ‘I kinda like it back home.’

“Where visiting teams stay, down by The Plaza, is beautiful. There is tons of good shopping, good restaurants. It’s great for visiting teams. But a lot of guys who play here end up staying here because it’s a great community and a great place to raise a family.”

And so Kansas City remains a baseball town. From the minor league Blues and Negro League Monarchs to the Kansas City A’s and Royals, it’s always been a great place to play, according to one native son.

“We have got awesome fans here,” Adam said. “They have been patient through this year, even though it hasn’t gone how anybody wanted it to go. But they are still coming out, still cheering for us. It makes it a lot of fun to play for them. It gives us even more incentive to keep pushing and get back to winning.”

 

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