Ian Kennedy – Todd Fertig Writes http://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:09:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: Woeful KC has several quality pieces in place to build around http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-woeful-kc-has-several-quality-pieces-in-place-to-build-around/ Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:07:45 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1531 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 27 – you can read it by clicking here.

As the long, disappointing 2019 campaign comes to a close for the Kansas City Royals, changes are on the horizon. New ownership, a new manager and the development of minor league prospects will be all anyone will focus on from this point forward. And rightfully so. Fans will be glad to flush this 100-loss season and look to the future.

But an inventory of the 2019 season reveals some impressive – even historic – individual accomplishments that are worth celebrating. When fans look to the future, they may just find there are some high quality elements to build upon.

Most notably, Jorge Soler will lead the American League in home runs. This should not go unappreciated. Only twice in the 51 years of the franchise has a Royal even come close to this accomplishment. In 1975, John Mayberry finished third in the home run race, two behind George Scott and Reggie Jackson. In 1985, Steve Balboni came in third, four homers behind Darrell Evans. To achieve this feat in the second largest park in baseball is significant. Soler also entered the final series of the season fourth in the AL in runs batted in.

Some recommend the Royals try to trade Soler during the offseason. The logic is that his value may never be higher, and with arbitration conditions promising to push his salary up the next two years of his contract, the Royals would be better off swapping him for valuable prospects. But for now, Soler provides the kind of power potential the club has never had.

Whit Merrifield, another candidate to be traded this offseason, will lead the AL in hits for the second consecutive year. Merrifield is just the eighth Royal to record 200 hits in a season. Some argue that, like Soler, Merrifield should be dealt to build for the future. But with three years left on his contract with Kansas City, he is a Swiss Army knife the team can use all over the diamond.

Had Adalberto Mondesi not been sidelined for more than a third of a season by injury, he would have put together some remarkable speed stats. As it is, he entered the final weekend of the year leading the AL in triples, second in stolen bases, and first with a stolen-base success rate of 86 percent.

These three along with Hunter Dozier constitute an enviable foursome. Dozier entered the final weekend with 26 homers, 84 RBIs, and a .281 batting average.

This quartet gives the club hope for the future. The loss of Salvador Perez really hurt the 2019 Royals. But he appears on track for a return in 2020, and gives the Royals a fifth elite piece to build around.

Alex Gordon experienced a remarkable rebound in 2019, and currently sits at .266 with 13 homers and 75 RBIs. Fittingly, the tough-as nails outfielder is leading the American League in times hit by a pitch. The 35-year-old Gordon might return for a swan song in 2020, but it should only be on a very club-friendly contract, and expectations for him going forward should be kept low.

Beyond that, there are a million question marks, as too many members of the club either underperformed or are still in the developmental stage. Probably the biggest disappointment with the bat was Ryan O’Hearn, who is finishing strong again this year, but will close with a batting average well below .200. Despite his total inability to hit left-handed pitchers, O’Hearn will get plenty more chances in 2020, as will recently acquired Ryan McBroom.

Others who got their feet wet in 2019 and will be given plenty of opportunities as the rebuild continues are infielder Nicky Lopez and outfielders Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips. The team’s Rookie of the Year, Lopez will finish the year with nearly 100 hits and having demonstrated an ability to excel at multiple infield spots.

As bright as some of the lights were at the plate for the 2019 Royals, the team’s pitching cast a depressing shadow over the season. The team’s best young starting pitcher, Brad Keller, wasn’t good enough to produce wins for the team. He was shut down early with a 7-14 record. His 4.19 ERA, while not horrendous, was a full run worse that last season. Leading the team in victories with nine is Jakob Junis, but that’s about the only good thing you can say about his season. Junis was lit up to the tune of a 5.24 ERA. Acquired mid-season, Mike Montgomery wasn’t any better. His ERA was 4.64, but he was inconsistent and posted a record of just 2-7 as a Royal.

Veteran Danny Duffy continued to be just good enough to keep up hopes for something better. He was 7-6 with a 4.34 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign. Whether Duffy will remain in the starting rotation, be moved to the bullpen, or traded remains to be seen.

Beyond the shaky production of that foursome, nothing good came from the current starting options. The best thing that can be said about Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez and Eric Skoglund is that they were inconsistent. The only reason their audition will continue into 2020 is that the team’s collection of heralded pitching prospects is at least a year away.

If there emerged one star of the pitching staff in 2019, it was Ian Kennedy. Moved to closer primarily because he wasn’t cutting it as a starter, Kennedy found himself. He entered the last weekend of the season with 30 saves, good for fourth in the AL. His 88 percent save percentage ranks among elite closers. Kennedy may have demonstrated enough worth as a closer that the Royals will decide to trade him prior to the final year of his contract.

After Kennedy, the bullpen was a disaster. Auditions will continue in 2020, with some talented arms to work with. Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady at least have youth and potential on their side.

While some impressive statistics were accumulated in 2019, the only numbers that matter are the wins and losses. And those will once again be bleak. But with some impressive individuals to build around, and a large group to audition in 2020, hopefully the new owner and new manager will have plenty to work with moving forward.

]]>
1531
Royals Rundown: Five reasons the hapless Royals still are of note http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-five-reasons-the-hapless-royals-still-are-of-note/ Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:07:07 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1517 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 15 – you can read it by clicking here.

Major League Baseball mandates that teams play out the games scheduled in September, regardless how far out of contention they are. Players are contractually obligated to play in those games.

Fans, on the other hand, are under no obligation to watch or listen to those games, check the box scores, or to give any regard whatsoever to what happens.

Most fans of the Kansas City Royals have moved on, as of last Sunday, to football season, and rightly so. But still, the baseball games go on. And a lot has happened, and will happen, this September that is worthy of note.

New Ownership:

The sale of the Royals to Kansas City businessman John Sherman requires approval at the league meeting this winter. But with that approval essentially guaranteed, Sherman can get a jumpstart this fall on deciding the direction of the franchise. He’ll certainly be paying close attention to the product on the field, as well as evaluating what help can be realistically expected from the minor league system.

Little is known about Sherman’s plans for the team as it is currently constituted. There are rumors that he’ll keep general manager Dayton Moore in some capacity. Whether or not manager Ned Yost returns for another season remains to be seen.

Sherman’s evaluation, and his philosophy toward spending on free agents (to this point unknown) will affect the futures of several current Royals. Should Alex Gordon be brought back for a swan song? Should the team lock slugger Jorge Soler up long term? Should veterans Whit Merrifield, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy be traded for prospects?

Roster Expansion:

Major league teams are expanding their rosters in a big way for the last time this September. By rule, teams have been permitted to bring anyone on their 40-man roster up to the big leagues on September 1. If a club so desired, it could fill its dugout with prospects and give them a chance to gain experience on the big stage.

The tradition of roster expansion in September allows a handful of men every year to realize the dream of playing in the major leagues who would otherwise never make it. For all the players called up, the expansion allows them to showcase their abilities for future opportunities.

Backup catcher Nick Dini was called up to Kansas City earlier in the summer due to an injury to Cam Gallagher. But Dini knows what September roster expansion means to fringe players like himself.

“It’s huge. You play the whole season with the hopes of getting to play in the big leagues,” Dini said. “All the work you put in during the offseason, and during the season, it’s all for this, to get to get to the big leagues and show what you can do. September is a huge opportunity that we all want to take advantage of.”

Dini admitted part of the challenge of September call-ups is that playing time for so many players is limited. Men accustomed to playing every day suddenly find themselves sitting on the bench for days at a time.

“It’s tough but that’s part of being a professional,” the 26-year-old catcher said. “When it’s your turn to play, you’ve got to be ready to play. The days when you aren’t playing, you’ve got to put the work in to make sure you’re ready to go when your name is called.”

The rule of September roster expansion was recently amended. Starting next season, teams will only be allowed to expand their rosters to 28. Dini said this fact is well known to minor leaguers.

“Guys are aware of (the change) and how it’s going to affect opportunities. That’s 12 less slots for each team, so 12 less opportunities for guys to get called up. But that’s what’s going on. There’s nothing you can do about it. My mentality has been just to go out and prepare, and if, God willing, it happens, then you’re ready to go.”

The Royals’ September call-ups include utility player Erick Mejia and pitchers Gabe Speier and Jesse Hahn. Each has a good shot at being on the roster next summer, so this exposure should accelerate their learning curve.

Keller On Ice:

The Royals announced in late August that it would limit pitcher Brad Keller’s innings and pitch count. The team indicated that Keller still had a ways to go in the season, but it hinted at concern for the 24-year-old’s health. He got blasted on August 26, and that was all the Royals needed to immediately shut Keller down.

“It was a consensus among the coaches that it’s what I needed,” Keller said. “It sucks, from the competitive side. You always want to go out there and compete with the boys. But it’s like a stepping stone for the future. They’re looking out for my best interest, and I agree with what they’re doing. So I just have to (accept it) and keep moving forward.”

Keller’s absence in the starting rotation will open up opportunities for others. Giving starts to Jorge Lopez will open up relief opportunities for Speier, Hahn and others. The final month should see Kyle Zimmer, Josh Staumont and Eric Skoglund get a long look in the bullpen.

“I’m really excited to see how we do in September and what the other guys can do,” said Keller. “It’s a showcase. It’s going to give them a chance to get their feet wet, to get an understanding of what it’s like to play in the big leagues, on and off the field.”

Minor League Playoffs:

When the prospects that eventually won the 2015 World Series worked their way up through the farm system, a premium was placed on winning minor league championships. The franchise wanted the Royals of the future to learn to win together. New prospects, now at the lower levels of the minors, are reviving the winning tradition.

The Wilmington Blue Rocks, a club flush with premium prospects, is competing this weekend for the high A classification Carolina League championship. Meanwhile the lower A-ball Lexington Legends are playing for a South Atlantic League title. And down at the Royals Dominican Academy, a collection of Latin American prospects claimed the Dominican Summer League championship.

Fall League Action:

Some of the Royals’ top prospects in the minors will get additional seasoning in the Arizona Fall League. Brewer Hicklen and Kyle Isbel, seen by the Royals as outfielders of the future, will be joined by versatile slugger Gabriel Cancel. Pitcher Daniel Lynch, considered the Royals #3 prospect, will see some additional innings in Arizona to make up for time lost due to injury earlier in the summer. Lynch will be accompanied in Arizona by fellow pitching prospects Daniel Tillo and Tad Ratliff.

 

]]>
1517
Royals Rundown: Offensive output impressive at halfway point of season http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-offensive-output-impressive-at-halfway-point-of-season/ Tue, 02 Jul 2019 02:50:09 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1440 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 30 – you can read it by clicking here.

The halfway point of the 2019 was (mercifully) reached Wednesday when the Royals lost at Cleveland. The Royals’ 28-53 record has them on pace for the second pick in the 2020 amateur draft, which is about the only good thing that may result from this season.

But with 81 of 162 games in the books, Wednesday provided the perfect opportunity to look at some individual statistics, and the Royals actually have some personal performances worthy of note.

Jorge Soler is on pace to do something no Royal has ever done – hit 40 home runs. With 21 as of Wednesday, Soler is well ahead of pace to eclipse Mike Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals remain the only team in baseball that has never had a 40-homer season.

Soler is becoming the power source the Royals envisioned when they traded for him prior to 2017. The 27-year-old Cuban is on pace to drive in 106 runs. As of Wednesday his home run total ranked fifth in the American League, and his RBI total ranked sixth. To lead the league in either category would be historic. Not since Hal McRae in 1982 has a Royal led the American League in RBIs. No Royal has ever led the league in homers.

2019 Projected Team Leaders at Midseason:

Hits: Whit Merrifield, 204; Home Runs: Jorge Soler, 42; RBI: Jorge Soler, 106; Stolen Bases: Adalberto Mondesi, 54; Wins: Homer Bailey, 14; Saves: Ian Kennedy, 20; Strikeouts: Jakob Junis 168

Amazingly, despite their putrid record, the Royals stand to finish atop several of baseball’s statistical lists. Whit Merrifield is currently leading all of baseball in hits, while Adalberto Mondesi, despite missing 10 games, leads in triples and stolen bases.

Merrifield knows a little about statistical accomplishments. Last year, he led all of baseball in hits and stolen bases. He said that individual accomplishments can feel like something to build on.

“Individually, the numbers can tell you that you got off to a good start, and can give you an idea if you’re doing things that could help your team win,” said the 30-year-old.

“You look around and see other guys who are individually having good years, so that’s encouraging to think that in the near future, all that could come together to turn into winning more games.”

After leading the MLB with 192 hits last year, Merrifield led at the halfway point of this year with 102. Only seven Royals have ever achieved 200 hits, the last being Melky Cabrera in 2011.

Merrifield emphasized, however, that no one in the Royals clubhouse puts individual accomplishments ahead of the team.

“It’s good to have guys having individual success because it makes you think that some of the pieces are there. But at the end of the day, that’s not what it’s about. You kind of have the attitude of ‘Great. But we didn’t win. So how do we fix it?’”

That the Royals aren’t winning is certainly true. They are on pace to win 56 games, which would tie 2005 for the worst season in franchise history.

One area in which the Royals are feasting, but which has not resulted in wins, is the category of stolen bases. The Royals stocked up on speedy players in the offseason in hopes they could steal some wins by swiping a lot of bases. Skeptics argued early on that the stolen base is a somewhat empty statistic that wouldn’t lead to much success.

At the middle of the season, the naysayers appear to be right. The Royals stole 78 through Wednesday, 13 more than the next closest challenger, and more than double the league average. Going into the season, it was speculated that Kansas City might steal 200 bases, a mark reached by only one team since 2000. They are not up to that pace, and a couple of their primary thieves – Billy Hamilton and Terrance Gore – might well be traded before this season is up.

Individually, Mondesi’s 27 stolen bases through Wednesday have him on pace to place sixth on the Royals single season list, and to become the sixth member of the organization to lead the American League in steals, joining Amos Otis (52 in 1971), Freddie Patek (53 in 1977), Willie Wilson (83 in 1979), Johnny Damon (46 in 2000), and Merrifield (34 in 2017 and 45 in 2018).

The Royals are setting the pace in another speed statistic, triples. Mondesi and Merrifield sat atop all of baseball on Wednesday with eight and seven triples, respectively. As a team, the Royals led with 26 three-baggers.

If a team is the sum of its parts, then the Royals would appear to have some parts that could eventually amount to an impressive sum. Though not a league leader, Hunter Dozier is having a remarkable season, on pace to hit .302 with 26 homers and 84 RBIs despite missing nearly a third of the first 81 games. Mondesi has superstar written all over him. Merrifield, if he’s not traded, is as efficient and versatile as any player in the game. And Soler is realizing his potential as a power hitter.

But the parts aren’t constituting a winner yet. Can it happen soon? The Royals have been open about their belief they can be competitive by as soon as 2021. There is significant help coming up through the minor leagues, but for now the significant individual performances are being wasted on an underperforming unit.

]]>
1440
Royals look to flip one-year contracts to improve talent pool http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-look-to-flip-one-year-contracts-to-improve-talent-pool/ Fri, 21 Jun 2019 04:11:49 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1433 At the beginning of the 2018 season, the Kansas City Royals hung a placard out for the rest of the league: “For sale.” They brought in Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Blaine Boyer, and brought back Mike Moustakas with the sole intent of trading them for prospects mid-season.

While not making it their intent this year, the Royals once again have a handful of players they may be interested in flipping this summer. Doing so could fetch some helpful minor leaguers, while clearing the way for younger Royals to gain valuable experience. It’s exactly what happened last season, and it’s the only thing that could salvage this wretched campaign.

The players in the clubhouse know it’s coming. It’s a harsh reality, but one they accept. It affects them professionally – who wouldn’t want to be traded from a cellar-dweller to a playoff contender mid season? But it also affects them professionally – should they move their families for what could be only a couple of months?

“It really doesn’t affect your daily approach to things at all,” said Terrance Gore, who was acquired late in the 2018 campaign by the playoff-bound Chicago Cubs from the Royals. “It more affects your family more than anything. You may have to pack up and leave at any point and time on short notice. But as a player it really doesn’t affect you. You just go out there and play the game the way you’ve been playing.

“If it happens, it happens. Sometimes it’s a good thing. Sometimes it’s a bad thing. But leaving the Royals, because I’ve been with the Royals so long, it’s definitely a bad thing, because I’ll always be a Royal no matter where I go. But if it happens to you, it’s just something you have to live with.”

Major League Baseball set a hard deadline for trades this year – July 31 is the cutoff. So deals may start happening a little earlier than in years past.

Players like Gore understand that deft trades at mid-season can change history. When the Royals won the 2015 World Series, it was in large part due to the trade-deadline acquisitions of Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto. And last year, the Royals were on the selling end, shipping Moustakas at the deadline to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jorge Lopez and Brett Phillips.

“Every player does look at it as an opportunity,” Gore said of being traded to a contending team. “It’s a chance to contribute to something special.

“We look at it as a business. Sometimes giving away one player you can get two players in return that will make the team better in the long run. I’m always a Royal, and anything that will help the organization in the long run, I’m cool with it.”

A few one-year flippables on the team might have some value on the trade market. First and foremost is Jake Diekman. While the bullpen has been pretty awful as a whole, the 32-year-old lefty has been tough, with a WHIP barely above 1.00 and more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings. The Royals signed him to a one-year deal knowing he could very well be trade bait.

Sadly neither Wily Peralta nor Brad Boxberger – other relievers on one-year deals – won’t attract similar trade interest.

Homer Bailey’s hot and cold performances might not attract a great haul, but some team in need of a starter might give him a try.

Two one-year position players might bring some prospects, if just the right trade partners can be found.

Martin Maldonado holds tremendous value for any contending team who finds itself in need of a catcher down the stretch. Maldonado is a whiz defensively and has shown he can quickly bond with a pitching staff. He won’t be a difference maker with the bat, but he could save a season for a team in need of a rock behind the plate.

Outfielder Billy Hamilton has failed to provide much offense, but the rest of the league knows what he can do: play great defense and steal bases. A team that could use a late-game pinch runner and defensive replacement could get some real good out of the 28-year-old speed demon. Trading Hamilton would also open a spot for prospect Bubba Starling to finally make his long-awaited debut.

The Royals should do anything and everything necessary to trade all of the players mentioned above. None of them fit the organization’s future plans, and will just be taking up space if they are on the roster after July 31.

And none of them hold any sentimental value to the organization. That cannot be said, however, for Alex Gordon, whose contract runs out after this year as well. Would the Royals actually consider trading the local product, the pillar of the franchise and fixture in the community?

Other teams have traded cornerstone stars at the deadline – Justin Verlander, David Price and Yoenis Cespedes are just a few from recent years. But for a beleaguered club to trade a guy who’s labored faithfully for 13 years is hard to envision.

Other difficult deals to swing could involve guys with more than one year left on their contracts. It was reported (although General Manager Dayton Moore denied it) that the Royals are open to trading nearly everyone on their current roster.

If a deal can be found for Ian Kennedy, the Royals shouldn’t hesitate. He shows some potential as a reliever, but he won’t be with Kansas City past next year, and his contract is an albatross.

Whit Merrifield would probably bring the most in return, and the Royals might be open to dealing him, despite having three very affordable years left on his contract. If Jorge Soler continues to crush home runs, he might also have value on the trade market. And Danny Duffy might be attractive to some team.

Those three players should only be traded for a haul in return, as they each hold value for the ongoing rebuild. But if enough is offered in return, none should be considered untouchable. Gordon might fall in a different category, and it would understandable if the Royals choose to keep him.

Otherwise, let the wheeling and dealing begin!

]]>
1433
Royals Rundown: Kansas City bullpen beginning to jell after dismal start http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-kansas-city-bullpen-beginning-to-jell-after-dismal-start/ Sun, 21 Apr 2019 22:54:12 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1338 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on April 20 – you can read it by clicking here.

After breaking out of a dreaded 10-game skid with a sweep of Cleveland last weekend, manager Ned Yost declared that the Royals “are a better team than the 10-game-losing streak showed.”

Some statistics back up that statement. On April 11, following the last of the 10 losses, the Royals’ 4.5 runs per game was just below the American League average. They were also in the middle of the pack in slugging and in on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS). And on that date, their six quality starts from pitchers was in the upper half of the league.

So, if the offense and starting pitching was average to above, what was the problem during that stretch? One word: bullpen.

The Royals had blown four of six save opportunities, and seemed to have no answer for how to close out a game they should win.

While a myriad of problems led to the 58-104 disaster of 2018, the bullpen was the leading culprit. Losing with youngsters in the everyday lineup and in the starting rotation was bad enough. But when the team had a chance to win, blown opportunities by the bullpen were particularly galling.

The Royals thought they had purged the worst of last year’s relievers. They cut ties with Blaine Boyer, Justin Grimm, Brandon Maurer and Burch Smith – guys who combined to allow 181 hits and 141 runs over 143.2 innings.

They added two veterans in Brad Boxberger – a former closer in Arizona – and Jake Diekman, a tandem that couldn’t possibly be as bad as the quartet they’d just banished. Could they?

Turns out, in the early going, they could.

Boxberger, in particular, has been dreadful. He’s surrendered more than a run per inning, and his pitching has led directly to a loss three times already in this short season. After Boxberger blew a lead on Monday at Chicago, Yost essentially stopped using him, turning to other options.

With a few more wins under their belts, things in the bullpen don’t seem quite as dire as they did a week ago. Despite the rough start, Diekman and Boxberger will probably remain a factor. They continue to take the same attitude as they took to begin the season.

“The most important thing to being successful is seeing every day as a new day,” said Boxberger, who, with 77 career saves, has seen his share of success. “No matter what happened the day before, you might be called upon again the next day, so you have to be able to put that out of your mind and believe you can succeed the next day.”

Diekman said that, on top of trying to pitch effectively, he and Boxberger will try to provide a veteran presence as Yost relies more and more on youngsters like Richard Lovelady and Scott Barlow.

“We have a lot of pitchers with very, very good arms,” Diekman said. “They might not be the most experienced down there, but they have the ability to have success up here. So if (Brad or I) can give them any knowledge or ease the growing pains, then we’re happy to do it.”

Yost tends to believe in veterans to know how to turn things around. A week ago he seemed to be more frustrated with the poor showing by those young members of the pen.

“We have some very young pitchers who need to understand how good they are when they step on the mound, and get on the attack,” he said after the sweep of Cleveland last Sunday. “They’ve got to trust their stuff and attack.”

The Royals opened the season with high hopes that oft-injured Kyle Zimmer was ready to play a role in the pen. But having so little in-game experience, Zimmer might not have been ready for the jump to the majors. He struggled with his command and was sent to the minors to figure things out.

Another guy who dropped the ball was Tim Hill, a key lefty last year. He was also sent down, as was the more experienced Kevin McCarthy.

Next to disappoint was Lovelady, whose promotion had been much anticipated due to his success in the minors. Other youngsters like Jake Newberry and Glen Sparkman have had spotty results as well.

But the season is still young. With the emergence of converted started Ian Kennedy as a reliable option in late innings, and expected improvement from Wily Peralta, there is still time for the pen to go from a weakness to a strength. Those two veterans, plus Barlow and Lovelady, combined to hold the fort in recent wins.

“We’ve got a really special group of guys,” said Barlow, who saw limited action in 2018 and is starting to see his role expand. “Everybody gets along really well and with everybody helping each other, I think down the road, as the days and weeks go by, we can really feed off each other and do something special.

“It’s a lot of just building off each other. We’re starting to get into a better routine, taking care of our business. We’re definitely asking the older guys for help when we need it. And as each guy pitches well, we’re feeding off of each other.”

]]>
1338
Despite disastrous season, new stars have seen relative success with Royals http://toddfertigwrites.com/despite-disastrous-season-new-stars-have-seen-relative-success-with-royals/ Sun, 30 Sep 2018 22:30:21 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1156 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 29 – you can read it here.

The 2018 Kansas City Royals were a disaster. But you wouldn’t know it by talking to the guys taking the field the past two months.

That’s because a large number of the guys in the clubhouse now weren’t there when the Royals bumbled to a 27-68 record at the All-Star break. Since then, Ryan O’Hearn and Adalberto Mondesi have brought superstar production to Kansas City. Brett Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin have brought speed and athleticism (and the swagger that comes with it). And Brad Keller, Heath Fillmyer and Jorge Lopez have infused the starting rotation with youth and potential.

Talk to any of the youngsters, and they see this season as an opportunity.

“The new guys, the young guys, have to prove that we belong here, and demonstrate what we can do for the team moving forward,” said Phillips, who, along with Lopez, was acquired in late July in a trade for Mike Moustakas. “So we have a lot of motivation, a lot of energy, to go out there each day regardless of how many games the team has won or lost.”

Pitcher Ian Kennedy said that while the first half of the season was disappointing to the veterans assembled to start the year, the transformation of the roster points to brighter days ahead. After struggling mightily at the start of the season, Kennedy sat out much of the year with injuries. He observed the change from the dugout.

“The group we started with just struggled all around. We couldn’t click,” Kennedy said. “Now as the team starts to transform, the young guys are all hungry because they want a spot next year. They want to prove that they can do something up here. I’m really excited for our future. I watched the transition while I was on the disabled list, and it’s been fun to see.”

Keller, who has been a leader of the youth movement, said that winning at a respectable clip this fall is going to catapult the team into greater success moving forward.

“The vibe around here these days is just awesome,” said the 23-year-old. “How we’re conducting business from then to now is a night and day difference. You can see it on the field, how much fun we’re having. It’s going to give us confidence moving forward. We feel like, give us a full year together and see what can happen.”

As Keller and company wrap up the Royals’ 50th season, a healthy dose of perspective is in order. While the overall record won’t be much to celebrate, there is a silver lining to the dark cloud of 2018.

The Class of ‘69

There have certainly been some bleak periods for the expansion team awarded to Kansas City at major league baseball’s 1967 winter meetings. But of the four teams created at that meeting – the San Diego Padres, Seattle Pilots and Montreal Expos being the other three – the Royals are unquestionably at the head of the class.

First of all, two of the clubs bolted their original homes for greener pastures. The Pilots barely paused long enough to unpack their bags in Seattle before moving to Milwaukee to become the Brewers in 1970. The Expos were competitive for a time, but couldn’t win over their Canadian hosts and morphed into the Washington Nationals in 2005.

The Royals have played in four World Series, winning two. Of the other three 1969 expansion clubs, the Padres lost in the 1984 and 1998 series, and the Brewers lost in the 1982 series. So the Royals have played in more World Series than the other three combined, and been the only one to win even one championship.

Of the 30 teams in major league baseball, 12 have reached fewer World Series than the Royals, some of which have been around for much longer.

We’ve been here before and felt far worse

The Royals have lost 100 or more games four times previously. With two games left, this Royals team will escape the embarrassment of being worst in team history. They lost 106 in 2005.

It hurt when, after failing to capitalize on building blocks like Mike Sweeney, Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran and Jermaine Dye, the 2002 Royals dropped 100 for the first time in team history.

2004 was dreadful because, after the fool’s gold of 2003 led fans to believe the team was actually competitive, the 104 losses exposed that a quick rebuild was not possible.

Things couldn’t have looked more bleak than they did in 2005, when they lost 106 games and hardly had anyone of real major league caliber. 2006 was only slightly better, when the Royals again lost an even 100.

So with a bunch of young studs playing, and winning, in the second half, 2018 doesn’t seem that bad. With Keller, Mondesi and friends emerging as building blocks, there is hope for next year.

As is often said, a losing season doesn’t have to be a lost season. It doesn’t feel like a lost season in the clubhouse these days.

]]>
1156
Reasons to watch KC during season’s final month http://toddfertigwrites.com/1131-2/ Sat, 01 Sep 2018 15:03:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1131 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 25, 2018 – you can read it here.

It’s almost football season.

Kansas City Royals fans are about to revive what had become a tradition. If they haven’t stopped paying attention already, they will soon ignore the Royals to fully devote their attention to their favorite football teams.

Over the past five seasons, from 2013 to 2017, Royals fans actually experienced what is commonplace to a few privileged fan bases – meaningful fall baseball. There are few things better than trying to juggle watching the slate of football games while following a baseball team in a pennant race.

That won’t be the case this year. Is there anything to keep Royals fans interested with the Chiefs, college and high school football all kicking off in the next couple of weeks?

Actually, if you like watching young prospects cut their teeth in the big leagues, if you enjoy following the rebuilding process, if looking for signs of hope on the horizon is your deal, then yes, there are things to keep you interested.

A star at shortstop:

There is a pretty depressing argument about who is the best shortstop in Royals’ history. It boils down to two candidates, Freddie Patek and Alcides Escobar. So who was better, a weak-hitting, solid fielder with some speed, or another weak-hitting, solid fielder with some speed? Both benefitted from playing supporting roles on really good teams.

But there is hope for something better. Royals fans have been hearing for years about the potential of Adalberto Mondesi. Now they are finally getting a glimpse of what Mondesi can do. Manager Ned Yost recently said he thinks Mondesi has no idea how good he can be. A slick fielder with incredible speed and surprising pop in his bat, Mondesi has the chance to make fans forget Patek and Escobar entirely.

The bar is remarkably low. If he can stay healthy, bat .250 with 10-15 home runs and 25 or more stolen bases for several seasons in a row, there will be no question who was the best Royals shortstop. Those goals seem low for a guy with Mondesi’s talent.

The outfield derby:

Kansas City will have to sort through a host of potential outfielders over the next couple of years, before some of their top prospects start to percolate to the majors. Guys who have been around a while need to show they can contribute to a winner. Jorge Bonifacio must hit. Jorge Soler must get healthy and show his hot start to 2018 is sustainable.

Some new acquisitions are forcing their way into the equation, and may eventually push the Jorges to the side. Brett Phillips is a star with the glove. But can he hit? Will Brian Goodwin, who has been injured for the past several weeks, finally play up to his initial billing? What role will suit the versatile Rosell Herrera? These questions will begin to be answered over the next month.

A mashing first baseman:

Veteran minor-league first baseman Ryan O’Hearn had to be frustrated watching the Royals try to mold Hunter Dozier to the position at the big league level. But O’Hearn bided his time and finally got his chance. And so far, he’s blasting homer runs and holding his own. Don’t panic over his low batting average just yet. He makes hard contact and can get the ball over the fence.

Pitching. Lots of pitching:

Seemingly every night some young pitcher makes his debut for the Royals. Kansas City started spring training with a veteran rotation consisting of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, and one young guy in Jakob Junis. Injuries and ineffectiveness wiped out that plan. The door swung wide open for just about everybody in the upper minors.

Brad Keller has done nothing less than pitch like one of the best rookies in baseball. Junis has been inconsistent, but good enough. Beyond that, a stream of hurlers have taken their shot. While perhaps none of them will be starters when the Royals again contend in the American League, plenty of arms will be needed in the rotation and in the bullpen. So the auditions have started. Among the 11 starters used by Kansas City so far in 2018, count Heath Fillmyer, Eric Skoglund, Burch Smith, Glenn Sparkman, Trevor Oaks and Jorge Lopez as potential rotation options for the future. Each will get plenty of innings in September.

Roster expansion:

Think you need a scorecard to know who’s on the field now? Wait another week. When the league allows teams to expand their rosters on September 1, the Royals could conceivably call up any of the minor leaguers listed on the 40-man roster. They won’t bring up 15 more players, but they will call up several. One guys worth watching if he gets the call is Josh Staumont, a reliever known to throw harder than 100 mph.

#1 draft choice at stake:

If you find yourself rooting for the Royals to win games, stop. The Royals have nothing to gain, and one significant thing to lose, by winning games – the first pick in the 2019 amateur draft. Difference makers can be found in any spot in the draft, but it’s ideal to have your pick of any amateur in America. Wouldn’t it be fun to add a future Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones or Ken Griffey to the Royals mix?

These are some things to keep in mind while you’re watching football.

]]>
1131
KC should get radical with roster moves http://toddfertigwrites.com/kc-should-get-radical-with-roster-moves/ Fri, 24 Aug 2018 01:21:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1091 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 21, 2018 – you can read it here. Most casual fans have long-since ceased paying attention to the Royals. But those who hang in there this season may see a shot at history.

Only two teams since 1961 have finished a season with a winning percentage below .300. Amazingly, that number could double this season as the Royals and the Baltimore Orioles are neck-and-neck in terms of futility.

The Royals spent the All-Star break sitting on a .284 winning percentage, slightly worse than Baltimore’s .289. That puts them on pace to finish the seasons with a 46-116 record. If they do so, they’ll avoid the ignominious claim to the worst team ever. The 1962 New York Mets finished 40-120 (.250). The 2003 Detroit Tigers were also slightly worse than this year’s Royals, coming in at 43-119 (.265).

The record is far from safe, however. Kansas City traded two of its best players in June, and subsequently went 2-11 in July prior to the All-Star break. They’re now poised to deal Mike Moustakas and possibly others. They may turn entirely to playing rookies and unproven prospects. As bad as they’ve been, they could conceivably get worse.

They are comfortably on pace to eclipse the worst record in team history. The 2005 Royals went 56-106, finishing dead last in the majors, the only time the Royals have ever done so. Consider, this team could be 10 games worse than the worst in franchise history.

Digging a bit deeper, you see that no part of this team is good. At the break, the Royals had scored the fewest runs in baseball, while surrendering the most. Only one team in history allowed more than 2.0 runs than they scored per game – the 2003 Tigers run differential was 2.08. They 2018 Royals entered the break with a 2.03 run differential.

Finishing in last place isn’t all bad, of course. It earns you the first pick in the amateur draft the following year. But hopefully that isn’t the only thing the Royals have left to gain in 2018. They muddled along playing a set of veterans the first half of the year, and all it got them was historically bad. It’s time to ditch the veterans, starting with Moustakas, who is on the last months of his contract, and be daring with this rebuild. They need to make some bold moves and some tough decisions.

Bold moves:

The Royals could plod along the rest of the season playing the same players they’ve been playing, or they could get radical. Here are some aggressive moves to accelerate the rebuild:

Release Jason Hammel if he can’t be traded. By moving Hammel to the bullpen, they are making a last ditch attempt to restore at least some of his value. A contender in need of bullpen help might take a chance on him. But he has zero value left as a starter. If he can’t be traded, he should be released so his innings can be given to a prospect.

Pitch anyone not named Ian Kennedy. The Royals should pitch Kennedy only to provide rest to the younger members of the staff. With two years and $33 million left on his deal, the Royals won’t release him. The radical move would be to do so. But at least the Royals could devote his innings to someone who will be around when the team is good again.

Trade or release Paulo Orlando. If the Royals were a contender, the 32-year-old Orlando would provide some valuable depth. But since they aren’t, he’s just taking playing time away from someone a decade younger.

Trade or release Lucas Duda. (See Paulo Orlando.)

Give most of Alex Gordon’s playing time to someone else. According to the metrics, Gordon still has value. But he’s painful to watch at the plate, and isn’t tradable due to his contract. Once Jorge Soler or some other rookie is ready to get playing time, Gordon shouldn’t block them. Hard as it is to sit someone making $20 million, it should be done for the benefit of outfielders of the future.

Release Alcides Escobar. No one else will take him off our hands, but the future is now for Adalberto Mondesi.

Tough decisions:

The biggest question facing the Royals is whether they should trade three players – Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield – who are under contract for several more years.

The pros and cons are one in the same when it comes to trading Merrifield. He is 29 years old, with four years left on his bargain-basement contract. With his ability to play numerous positions, Merrifield holds tons of value. He could still be around when the rebuild bears fruit, but he would be well into his 30s.

The case for trading Duffy: Duffy is 29, with three years left on his contract, making $15 million each season. Since the Royals probably won’t be competitive before the deal runs out, they could try to get what they can and devote the money to the rebuild. While he wants to be a leader of a rebuild, he’s not the steady figure needed for that role.

The case for keeping Duffy: He runs hot and cold. When he’s off, he’s still better than anyone else the Royals have, but when he’s on, he’s one of the best lefties in the game. The Royals have few prospects ready to start in the big leagues. He gives a bad team a chance to win every fifth day.

The case for trading Perez: Perez is 28 and it appears his skills are deteriorating. Time is not kind to catchers, and Salvy probably doesn’t have the bat to merit moving to another position.

The case for trading Perez: He’s a fan favorite and borderline Hall of Famer. Developing young pitchers is tough, and having a great handler behind the plate would really help. His infectious spirit can help carry the team through the rebuild.

With nothing to gain but the first pick in the 2019 draft, losses aren’t a bad thing moving forward. Much as it would hurt to be known as the worst team in history, the Royals need to make losing count.

]]>
1091
A player-by-player breakdown of the Royals at their halfway point http://toddfertigwrites.com/a-player-by-player-breakdown-of-the-royals-at-their-halfway-point/ Tue, 21 Aug 2018 02:09:31 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1078 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 30, 2018 – you can read it here. Friday’s game was the Royals’ 81st of the season. Exactly one half of the campaign was in the books following that game. One might argue that the only numbers that matter are the number of wins and losses recorded thus far.

But to anyone who grew up studying the back of baseball cards, there are lots of numbers that matter. Championships aren’t the only thing that capture the imagination and make baseball a beautiful thing to study.

Batting averages, home runs, ERA and strikeouts, and less traditional measures such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) go down in the record books and make some players into legends, and others just faces in the crowd.

The halfway point of a season is the most logical point, as well as the easiest mathematically, to evaluate how things are going. Obviously, things aren’t going well in Kansas City. But a review of individual statistics may provide some glimmer of hope, or at least something other than wins and losses to obsess over.

2018 Projected Team Leaders at the Halfway Point:

Hits: Whit Merrifield, 170; Home Runs: Mike Moustakas, 30; RBI: Mike Moustakas, 100; Stolen Bases: Whit Merrifield, 32; Wins: Jakob Junis, 10; Saves: Kelvin Herrera, 14; Strikeouts: Jakob Junis 180

Mike Moustakas: Of all their current players, the Royals are most desperate to trade Moose, so a good first half was critical to his market value. He started out hot, as if to prove everyone wrong who passed over him in free agency. With 8 home runs in April, it looked like he might threaten the team record of 38, which he established in 2017.

But a cool couple of months have clouded Moustakas’ prospects considerably. He completed the first half with 15 home runs, and probably won’t finish out the season in Kansas City, so last year’s record is safe. His 134 career home runs place him eighth on the Royals all time list, and just 10 more would move him past John Mayberry into seventh. (One note for Moustakas to consider after this season: were he to return to Kansas City as a free agent, just 64 more homers in a Royals uniform would move him to second place on the team’s list.)

Salvador Perez: The Royals entered the season promising to give the big catcher more days off from behind the plate. Before they could enact that plan, however, Perez missed a month with a knee injury. The Royals did play him 10 times at designated hitter and once at first base. So they have made some effort to rest him. His 11 homers in 60 games looks good, but his other numbers are down from previous years. His string of five straight all-star games is in jeopardy.

Whit Merifield: His 4 home runs look paltry compared to the 19 he belted last season. However, his 30 walks in the first half already top the 29 he drew last year. And his 16 stolen bases have him on pace to surpass the 34 bags he swiped to lead the American League last year. He is currently in third place in the league in that category.

Jorge Soler, Jorge Bonifacio and Cheslor Cuthbert: Manager Ned Yost swore he would make sure Soler, Bonifacio and Cuthbert each get at least 500 at bats this season. It seemed imperative to the rebuild that the team find out what it has in these three players.

This isn’t going to happen. First Bonifacio was suspended for half the season, and has just returned. Then Cuthbert sustained a back injury in mid-May and has missed more than a month. He’s batted just 103 times thus far, with dismal returns. Soler batted 223 times before breaking a bone in his foot. The good news is that he was tapping into his infinite potential before the injury, and hopes to return soon.

Lucas Duda: The big first baseman smashed 30 home runs last year, so the Royals signed him, mostly hoping to trade him midseason. Approaching that home run total again would have been nice. No such luck. He sits on just 5, and probably has little trade value, if any.

Danny Duffy: The supposed “ace” of the Royals pitching staff was an enormous disappointment the first two months of the season. For the past month, he’s been solid (and at times spectacular), and with a 4-7 record so far, he may still reach double digits in victories, a feat he’s only achieved once. He’s on pace to set career highs for starts and innings.

Jakob Junis: With a 5-9 record currently, Junis still has a chance to reach double-digit wins. Doing so would top the 9 wins he tallied his rookie year. But in direct contrast to Duffy, Junis started the season brilliantly and has since fallen apart. Junis, Ian Kennedy (1-8) and Jason Hammel (2-9) might each threaten the season record of 19 losses by a Royals pitcher.

Kelvin Herrera: Although he was traded well before the halfway point of the season, Herrera is essentially guaranteed to lead the team in saves. He had 14 when he was dealt, and no other Royal has more than 2.

Though he’s still only 28 years old, Herrera is third in most games pitched by a Royal. He spent very little time as the team’s closer, but departed Kansas City just one save away from fourth place on the team’s all-time saves list.

Royals fans can’t forget 2018 soon enough. But the numbers posted by individuals make up a larger story of careers and statistics are added to record books. Even in the worst of seasons, they are part of what makes baseball a wonderful game.

]]>
1078
Which current players will KC keep as foundation for youth movement? http://toddfertigwrites.com/which-current-players-will-kc-keep-as-foundation-for-youth-movement/ Tue, 21 Aug 2018 01:52:25 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1073 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 16, 2018 – you can read it here.

For the past several months, discouraged yet loyal Royals fans have set their sights on 2021 as the year the Royals will again be competitive.

While that means a long, bleak wait, it isn’t unusual in today’s game. The league has embraced the philosophy of building in cycles. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are two recent examples of clubs that tolerated stretches of extreme failure in order to allow a wave of talent to matriculate to the major leagues on a schedule.

So expecting fans to accept a couple of rotten seasons on faith isn’t out of the ordinary. While Royals’ team officials may not specify the 2021 deadline, they practically shouted that expectation from on high on June 4, when they drafted an overwhelming number of college players. With two to three years being a natural period of development for most college draftees, sights are set squarely on 2021. That season was already the ETA for a number of top prospects currently in the Royals’ lowest levels of the farm system.

When looking at minor league player development, it’s no longer meaningful to pay attention to age. It’s all about service time and player control. When a player reaches the big leagues, he is generally under team control for five years. Thus a wave of talent reaching the big leagues in 2021 could potentially stay in tact until 2026.

So, a logical question would be, who on the current Royals team will be available in 2021 to serve as the established veterans, the foundation for the youth movement to build upon?

Perhaps the key Royal moving forward is catcher Salvador Perez. His exuberance and toughness make him a fan favorite one can hardly foresee being traded. He may be the one player crucial to maintaining fan loyalty through the bleak years. His contract runs through 2021, when he will be 31. Unfortunately, catchers don’t age well. Unlike catching greats like Joe Mauer or Johnny Bench, a move to first base isn’t a great option for Perez. He’s just not quite good enough with the bat. The best-case scenario would be for Perez to remain one of the top defensive catchers well into the next decade. But time is particularly cruel to catchers. Keeping Perez or trading him while he has value is one of the toughest decisions facing the Kansas City front office.

Dealing veterans in the last year of their contracts before the trade deadline is key to acquiring prospects, and the Royals collected a few inexpensive trading chips in the offseason for just that purpose. Jon Jay was the first short-timer to be dealt, and several others must be swapped before July 31. Kelvin Herrera, Jason Hammel, Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda will be shopped extensively, because their contracts are up. Drew Butera might also fetch something on the market. Unfortunately Alcides Escobar probably holds zero value, but certainly the Royals anticipated that when they resigned him for this season. Blaine Boyer also won’t bring any value.

Of those on the roster who have one or two years remaining after 2018, the contracts of Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon make them untradeable. The Royals will just have to build around them as veteran clubhouse leaders who won’t be around in 2021. Ryan Goins, Abraham Almonte and Justin Grimm are nothing more than placeholders. Nate Karns is the one player whose contract is up in 2020 who might be a part of the youth movement.

That makes 13 2018 Royals who most certainly will be gone come 2021. While that seems like the core of the roster, there are actually quite a few players in Kansas City now who could constitute a talented foundation for the future.

The Royals could have Whit Merrifield (signed through 2022) and Hunter Dozier (2023) to fill spots in the infield, as well as Cheslor Cuthbert (2021), who has yet to prove his worth. Still awaiting his shot at shortstop is Adalberto Mondesi, who is still just 22 years old and under team control through 2023. A versatile backup could be Ramon Torres, also a Royal through 2023.

Outfield options in 2021 look promising with Jorge Soler (signed through 2021) and Jorge Bonifacio (2022). Backups could include Paolo Orlando and Billy Burns (both signed through 2021) who have logged a lot of time as emergency call-ups from Triple-A Omaha. That group is not good enough, obviously, but could prove supportive to new additions.

Essential to building a winner is pitching. Long the Royals’ biggest failure, the team must assemble a premier starting rotation. Hammel and Kennedy will be gone, but the prospects are actually encouraging looking forward.

The sudden emergence of rookie Brad Keller gives the Royals a small collection of starters to build around. Jakob Junis has been the Royals best starter for more than a year now, and he’s under contract through 2023. Eric Skoglund has flashed signs of potential, and he’s also a Royal through 2023.

Duffy, signed through 2021, wants to be a Royal for life. It may prove preferable, however, to deal him sooner rather than later and bank on younger starters. If some solid starters can be produced from the recent draft, they might supplement some combination of Duffy, Keller, Junis and Skoglund for a quality rotation well beyond 2021.

Any member of that group of starters might also wind up reinforcing a bullpen with many youthful candidates. Bryan Flynn (under contract through 2021), Burch Smith (2023), Kevin McCarthy (2023) and rookies Tim Hill and Scott Barlow are already earning their stripes in the majors and should form a solid core for years to come.

Losing a lot of games the next couple of years will be hard to accept for a fan base whose expectations suddenly went through the roof in 2014. But by keeping an eye on 2021, optimism isn’t impossible. The current Royals signed through that season won’t be good enough on their own. A new wave of talent must arrive, on time and equal to its billing. But if you squint, you can see the beginnings of a return to competitiveness on the horizon.

 

]]>
1073