Jakob Junis – Todd Fertig Writes http://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:09:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: Woeful KC has several quality pieces in place to build around http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-woeful-kc-has-several-quality-pieces-in-place-to-build-around/ Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:07:45 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1531 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 27 – you can read it by clicking here.

As the long, disappointing 2019 campaign comes to a close for the Kansas City Royals, changes are on the horizon. New ownership, a new manager and the development of minor league prospects will be all anyone will focus on from this point forward. And rightfully so. Fans will be glad to flush this 100-loss season and look to the future.

But an inventory of the 2019 season reveals some impressive – even historic – individual accomplishments that are worth celebrating. When fans look to the future, they may just find there are some high quality elements to build upon.

Most notably, Jorge Soler will lead the American League in home runs. This should not go unappreciated. Only twice in the 51 years of the franchise has a Royal even come close to this accomplishment. In 1975, John Mayberry finished third in the home run race, two behind George Scott and Reggie Jackson. In 1985, Steve Balboni came in third, four homers behind Darrell Evans. To achieve this feat in the second largest park in baseball is significant. Soler also entered the final series of the season fourth in the AL in runs batted in.

Some recommend the Royals try to trade Soler during the offseason. The logic is that his value may never be higher, and with arbitration conditions promising to push his salary up the next two years of his contract, the Royals would be better off swapping him for valuable prospects. But for now, Soler provides the kind of power potential the club has never had.

Whit Merrifield, another candidate to be traded this offseason, will lead the AL in hits for the second consecutive year. Merrifield is just the eighth Royal to record 200 hits in a season. Some argue that, like Soler, Merrifield should be dealt to build for the future. But with three years left on his contract with Kansas City, he is a Swiss Army knife the team can use all over the diamond.

Had Adalberto Mondesi not been sidelined for more than a third of a season by injury, he would have put together some remarkable speed stats. As it is, he entered the final weekend of the year leading the AL in triples, second in stolen bases, and first with a stolen-base success rate of 86 percent.

These three along with Hunter Dozier constitute an enviable foursome. Dozier entered the final weekend with 26 homers, 84 RBIs, and a .281 batting average.

This quartet gives the club hope for the future. The loss of Salvador Perez really hurt the 2019 Royals. But he appears on track for a return in 2020, and gives the Royals a fifth elite piece to build around.

Alex Gordon experienced a remarkable rebound in 2019, and currently sits at .266 with 13 homers and 75 RBIs. Fittingly, the tough-as nails outfielder is leading the American League in times hit by a pitch. The 35-year-old Gordon might return for a swan song in 2020, but it should only be on a very club-friendly contract, and expectations for him going forward should be kept low.

Beyond that, there are a million question marks, as too many members of the club either underperformed or are still in the developmental stage. Probably the biggest disappointment with the bat was Ryan O’Hearn, who is finishing strong again this year, but will close with a batting average well below .200. Despite his total inability to hit left-handed pitchers, O’Hearn will get plenty more chances in 2020, as will recently acquired Ryan McBroom.

Others who got their feet wet in 2019 and will be given plenty of opportunities as the rebuild continues are infielder Nicky Lopez and outfielders Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips. The team’s Rookie of the Year, Lopez will finish the year with nearly 100 hits and having demonstrated an ability to excel at multiple infield spots.

As bright as some of the lights were at the plate for the 2019 Royals, the team’s pitching cast a depressing shadow over the season. The team’s best young starting pitcher, Brad Keller, wasn’t good enough to produce wins for the team. He was shut down early with a 7-14 record. His 4.19 ERA, while not horrendous, was a full run worse that last season. Leading the team in victories with nine is Jakob Junis, but that’s about the only good thing you can say about his season. Junis was lit up to the tune of a 5.24 ERA. Acquired mid-season, Mike Montgomery wasn’t any better. His ERA was 4.64, but he was inconsistent and posted a record of just 2-7 as a Royal.

Veteran Danny Duffy continued to be just good enough to keep up hopes for something better. He was 7-6 with a 4.34 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign. Whether Duffy will remain in the starting rotation, be moved to the bullpen, or traded remains to be seen.

Beyond the shaky production of that foursome, nothing good came from the current starting options. The best thing that can be said about Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez and Eric Skoglund is that they were inconsistent. The only reason their audition will continue into 2020 is that the team’s collection of heralded pitching prospects is at least a year away.

If there emerged one star of the pitching staff in 2019, it was Ian Kennedy. Moved to closer primarily because he wasn’t cutting it as a starter, Kennedy found himself. He entered the last weekend of the season with 30 saves, good for fourth in the AL. His 88 percent save percentage ranks among elite closers. Kennedy may have demonstrated enough worth as a closer that the Royals will decide to trade him prior to the final year of his contract.

After Kennedy, the bullpen was a disaster. Auditions will continue in 2020, with some talented arms to work with. Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady at least have youth and potential on their side.

While some impressive statistics were accumulated in 2019, the only numbers that matter are the wins and losses. And those will once again be bleak. But with some impressive individuals to build around, and a large group to audition in 2020, hopefully the new owner and new manager will have plenty to work with moving forward.

]]>
1531
Royals Rundown: As trade deadline approaches, Kansas City looking to sell http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-as-trade-deadline-approaches-kansas-city-looking-to-sell/ Tue, 16 Jul 2019 03:25:03 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1464 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 13 – you can read it by clicking here.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look to be sellers as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, hoping to improve their farm system by trading away players who aren’t a long-term fit.

That means that, for the second year in a row, the team that finishes the season in Kansas City will look dramatically different from the one that started it.

While many more losses will follow the trade deadline, many interesting things could take place in Kansas City, things which hopefully will eventually lead to the resurgence of the franchise.

Which deals get made?

Last year the Royals were able to move players much more quickly than they have this season. By this time last year, the Royals had flipped Jon Jay and Kelvin Herrera for a considerable return. They would soon add more prospects by trading Mike Moustakas. And they would sell Terrance Gore and Lucas Duda, and trade Drew Butera.

This year’s trade market has been cold and the Royals have yet to make a single trade of significance.

They have several players under contract beyond 2019 that they would love to move if the right deal presented itself, starting with Ian Kennedy and possibly including Alex Gordon.

But they are more desperate to get anything in return for the guys with expiring contracts. Most likely to be traded are pitchers Homer Bailey and Jake Diekman and outfielder Billy Hamilton. Martin Maldonado and Gore might have some value somewhere. What the Royals can get in return may not be franchise altering, but anything helps.

Second round of auditions

Losing seasons open windows of opportunity for players trying to prove themselves. When a team no longer cares about wins and losses, it can patiently permit lenghty auditions, trying to find out which players are building blocks and which are merely stop-gaps.

Unfortunately, a few guys who looked like building blocks last season took a big step back this year. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn and outfielders Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio all floundered in 2019, but may get a callback. Each is benefiting from a lack of other options at his position within the organization.

A year ago Cheslor Cuthbert’s career appeared to be dead. But injuries and O’Hearn’s failure gave the 26-year-old another shot at the big leagues, and he’s been at least passable. With Hunter Dozier locking down third base, Cuthbert needs to show he can handle first base and be a run-producer. O’Hearn may return to KC and take some of Cuthbert’s playing time down the stretch. But the opportunity is there for Cuthbert, and he needs to seize it.

Getting an even longer look have been the pitchers at the big league level. With so few big-league quality starting pitchers, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis will receive infinite number of chances to figure things out. Glenn Sparkman may not have as long a leash, as the Royals may try some other options. But if Bailey gets dealt, someone will have to start. Eric Skoglund, suspended for the first half of the season, will probably get another look.

Ready for openers?

With almost no starting pitchers in Triple-A pushing for a promotion, the Royals may experiment with using an “opener” rather than a starter. This strategy is gaining acceptance around the league, and the Royals look ready to give it a try. They’ve been toying with it with flame-throwing Josh Staumont and reclamation project Kyle Zimmer at Triple-A. Both guys have more than enough talent and just need to find the right fit. Opening may be just the ticket to finally tap their ability.

It’s finally Bubba Time!

Fans finally have the long-awaited debut of Gardner-Edgerton product Bubba Starling. At long last, the center fielder was healthy and hitting enough to be called up from Omaha. The Royals held him back, probably making sure his success is sustainable, and trying to get anything they can in exchange for Hamilton.

At worst, Starling is essentially a copy of Hamilton – a great defender who can’t hit. But Starling’s newfound success at the plate provides hope he’s finally ready to thrive in KC. His immense popularity on the Kansas side of the city will provide a boost at the box office, if nothing else.

Late season promotions

Expanded big league rosters and minor-league playoff races always cause a lot of player movement in September. Trades will open roster spots in Kansas City even earlier. The reshuffling the last two months of the season will provide lots of opportunities and some indication of who the Royals see as pieces of the future. Aside from Staumont and Zimmer, guys to watch for in KC will be pitcher Richard Lovelady, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and jack-of-all-trades Erick Mejia.

Movement in the minor leagues will be just as interesting. Will top prospect Khalil Lee get a promotion to Triple-A? Will stud pitchers Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch successfully adjust to Double-A? And will uber-prospect Bobby Witt, Jr., currently at the Arizona rookie league, get promoted to a full-season club? Witt is already 19 and should be ready for the challenge.

Soler’s historic chase

Jorge Soler is on pace to hit 42 home runs. That would easily surpass Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals bear the embarrassment of being baseball’s only team without a 40-homer season in their history. With home runs flying out of parks at a record pace league-wide, the accomplishment might seem somewhat tainted. But juiced balls and a tighter strike zone aside, Soler’s emergence has been a much-needed breakthrough for the power-starved Royals.

Another strong finish

Despite a horrendous overall record, the 2018 Royals finished with a flourish, inspiring great optimism for 2019. But the new season started with a thud, and too many guys – Keller, Junis, O’Hearn, Jorge Lopez – took a step back. It would be refreshing if some prospects could infuse some energy into the club once again this year. Wins and losses won’t matter, but a recovery of some hope could still be attained down the stretch.

 

]]>
1464
Royals Rundown: Offensive output impressive at halfway point of season http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-offensive-output-impressive-at-halfway-point-of-season/ Tue, 02 Jul 2019 02:50:09 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1440 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 30 – you can read it by clicking here.

The halfway point of the 2019 was (mercifully) reached Wednesday when the Royals lost at Cleveland. The Royals’ 28-53 record has them on pace for the second pick in the 2020 amateur draft, which is about the only good thing that may result from this season.

But with 81 of 162 games in the books, Wednesday provided the perfect opportunity to look at some individual statistics, and the Royals actually have some personal performances worthy of note.

Jorge Soler is on pace to do something no Royal has ever done – hit 40 home runs. With 21 as of Wednesday, Soler is well ahead of pace to eclipse Mike Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals remain the only team in baseball that has never had a 40-homer season.

Soler is becoming the power source the Royals envisioned when they traded for him prior to 2017. The 27-year-old Cuban is on pace to drive in 106 runs. As of Wednesday his home run total ranked fifth in the American League, and his RBI total ranked sixth. To lead the league in either category would be historic. Not since Hal McRae in 1982 has a Royal led the American League in RBIs. No Royal has ever led the league in homers.

2019 Projected Team Leaders at Midseason:

Hits: Whit Merrifield, 204; Home Runs: Jorge Soler, 42; RBI: Jorge Soler, 106; Stolen Bases: Adalberto Mondesi, 54; Wins: Homer Bailey, 14; Saves: Ian Kennedy, 20; Strikeouts: Jakob Junis 168

Amazingly, despite their putrid record, the Royals stand to finish atop several of baseball’s statistical lists. Whit Merrifield is currently leading all of baseball in hits, while Adalberto Mondesi, despite missing 10 games, leads in triples and stolen bases.

Merrifield knows a little about statistical accomplishments. Last year, he led all of baseball in hits and stolen bases. He said that individual accomplishments can feel like something to build on.

“Individually, the numbers can tell you that you got off to a good start, and can give you an idea if you’re doing things that could help your team win,” said the 30-year-old.

“You look around and see other guys who are individually having good years, so that’s encouraging to think that in the near future, all that could come together to turn into winning more games.”

After leading the MLB with 192 hits last year, Merrifield led at the halfway point of this year with 102. Only seven Royals have ever achieved 200 hits, the last being Melky Cabrera in 2011.

Merrifield emphasized, however, that no one in the Royals clubhouse puts individual accomplishments ahead of the team.

“It’s good to have guys having individual success because it makes you think that some of the pieces are there. But at the end of the day, that’s not what it’s about. You kind of have the attitude of ‘Great. But we didn’t win. So how do we fix it?’”

That the Royals aren’t winning is certainly true. They are on pace to win 56 games, which would tie 2005 for the worst season in franchise history.

One area in which the Royals are feasting, but which has not resulted in wins, is the category of stolen bases. The Royals stocked up on speedy players in the offseason in hopes they could steal some wins by swiping a lot of bases. Skeptics argued early on that the stolen base is a somewhat empty statistic that wouldn’t lead to much success.

At the middle of the season, the naysayers appear to be right. The Royals stole 78 through Wednesday, 13 more than the next closest challenger, and more than double the league average. Going into the season, it was speculated that Kansas City might steal 200 bases, a mark reached by only one team since 2000. They are not up to that pace, and a couple of their primary thieves – Billy Hamilton and Terrance Gore – might well be traded before this season is up.

Individually, Mondesi’s 27 stolen bases through Wednesday have him on pace to place sixth on the Royals single season list, and to become the sixth member of the organization to lead the American League in steals, joining Amos Otis (52 in 1971), Freddie Patek (53 in 1977), Willie Wilson (83 in 1979), Johnny Damon (46 in 2000), and Merrifield (34 in 2017 and 45 in 2018).

The Royals are setting the pace in another speed statistic, triples. Mondesi and Merrifield sat atop all of baseball on Wednesday with eight and seven triples, respectively. As a team, the Royals led with 26 three-baggers.

If a team is the sum of its parts, then the Royals would appear to have some parts that could eventually amount to an impressive sum. Though not a league leader, Hunter Dozier is having a remarkable season, on pace to hit .302 with 26 homers and 84 RBIs despite missing nearly a third of the first 81 games. Mondesi has superstar written all over him. Merrifield, if he’s not traded, is as efficient and versatile as any player in the game. And Soler is realizing his potential as a power hitter.

But the parts aren’t constituting a winner yet. Can it happen soon? The Royals have been open about their belief they can be competitive by as soon as 2021. There is significant help coming up through the minor leagues, but for now the significant individual performances are being wasted on an underperforming unit.

]]>
1440
Royals Rundown: Homer Bailey gets chance to redeem himself in Kansas City http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-homer-bailey-gets-chance-to-redeem-himself-in-kansas-city/ Wed, 22 May 2019 02:54:42 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1370 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on May 18 – you can read it by clicking here.

Homer Bailey says the thought his career might be over after 2018 never crossed his mind. But over the winter he had plenty of doubters.

Bailey signed with the Kansas City Royals to a minor league contract when it would seem few other teams were interested. Royals general manager Dayton Moore is known for turning over rocks in search of rebuilding help, and Bailey was worth the minimal risk.

Bailey isn’t setting any worlds on fire yet, but the results are positive enough.

Embarrassing as it was, you can discard Thursday’s disaster in which Bailey was drubbed after four solid innings. The defense behind him was much of the problem. Bailey entered Thursday with a 4-3 record in eight starts, a 4.83 ERA, and 38 strikeouts in 41 innings.

Bailey has been arguably the Royals best starter in 2019, though that bar isn’t set very high. Brad Keller, Jorge Lopez and Jakob Junis have all struggled, and Danny Duffy was late to the party due to injury. While he’s had a couple of rough outings, Bailey has also had a few very good ones. He two-hit the Cleveland Indians over seven shutout innings on April 13, then five days later he held the New York Yankees to just three hits and a run over six innings. On May 10, he held the powerful Philadelphia Phillies to just one run on four hits over five innings.

“We’ve got a couple of months ahead of us before we can say that (it’s been successful), but it feels great right now,” the 33-year-old said recently.

Bailey wasn’t assured much when he signed with the Royals. He had a glossy resume, but everything good on it was outdated. In fact, the veteran pitcher hadn’t posted an ERA below 5.56 since the Royals reached the 2014 World Series. His 9-27 record wasn’t just the product of pitching for the dreadful Cincinnati Reds. He was flat out bad, for a long period of time.

What now seems like ages ago, the Reds once placed the hope of their future on Bailey’s shoulders, and seemed well on the way to being rewarded for that faith. The seventh player picked in the 2004 amateur draft, by 2009 Bailey was one of a group of hot young pitchers that included starters Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake. Edinson Volquez, and flame-throwing reliever Aroldis Chapman. Those young guns helped the Reds finish first in the National League Central in 2010 and again in 2012.

Bailey’s career reached its zenith when he fired a no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates in September 2012, then repeated the feat against the San Francisco Giants in July 2013. Foreseeing greatness in his future, the Reds invested $105 million in the next six years of his career.

It all went downhill from there, and fast. Off to a good start in 2014, Bailey was shelved midseason due to “arm fatigue.” The problem eventually led to diagnosis of torn ulnar collateral ligament, which necessitated Tommy John surgery. Other injuries and surgeries followed, and both Bailey and the Reds went off the deep end.

Things hit rock bottom when, finally relatively healthy in 2018, Bailey was saddled with an embarrassing 1-14 record for the hapless Reds. Desperate to off-load some of his onerous contract, the Reds traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who promptly gave him his release.

Still believing in himself, Bailey sought a place to recover. Enter Moore and Royals pitching coach Cal Eldred.

“I never had any notions that I wasn’t going to get the chance somewhere,” Bailey said. “I was prepared for this season to happen, I just didn’t know where for a while. After talking to Dayton and Cal this offseason, it felt like this was going to be a really good fit this year.

Bailey was guaranteed little aside from a chance in spring training. But Bailey knew better than anyone the status of his health, and he believed a return to the majors was a good bet. He sensed his best shot was with the Royals.

“The conversations I had with Dayton and also with Cal were what it took,” said the 13-year veteran. “Talking with Cal about how he likes to prepare different things, and his philosophy about pitching in general, it seemed like he was just a really good fit for me personally. It felt like he was someone I would work really well with.”

Moore has shown that reclamation projects like Bailey are one of his strong suits. Ryan Madson, Kris Medlen, Joe Blanton, Peter Moylan, Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Minor are all pitchers the Royals have scooped up off the scrap heap and reinvigorated.

Moore’s motivation is not just to find quality pitching to fortify the Royals’ staff. He sees the opportunity to turn discarded pitchers into tradable assets. A player like Bailey on a one-year contract who performs well for half the season could be flipped for minor leaguers that bolster the franchise’s rebuild. He was never seen as a long-term piece for the Royals. But he could bring them some prospects who help make the Royals winners again.

It’s certainly a promising scenario for Bailey. Just a few months ago, he had little opportunity to make a big-league roster. Now he seems destined to be dealt to a playoff team by August. And if his effectiveness holds out, he might be in line for another multi-year contract in 2020.

]]>
1370
Multitude of changes have KC looking up in second half of season http://toddfertigwrites.com/multitude-of-changes-have-kc-looking-up-in-second-half-of-season/ Tue, 18 Sep 2018 00:44:23 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1146 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept 15 – you can read it here.

The Royals have essentially played two seasons in 2018. The first season, the disastrous one in which a group of veterans put up a 27-68 record at the All-Star break, had people worried they might just be the worst team in history (seriously!)

Then they played a second season, going for youth and speed. That team has gone 24-28 since the All-Star break and bolstered the minor league system at the same time.

Some of the choices made by Dayton Moore over the past nine months that produced such a dramatic switch were forced upon him by financial realities. Some were so obviously necessary (like moving Alcides Escobar aside for Adalberto Mondesi) that fans couldn’t figure out what took so long. And a few took serious nerve and ingenuity by Moore.

The list is long of players Kansas City jettisoned. Here’s how those moves are working out so far.

Changes prior to the 2018 season:

Eric Hosmer – The Royals allegedly tried hard to entice Hosmer to return to Kansas City with a hefty contract. Hosmer ultimately opted to sign with the San Diego Padres, and beloved as Hosmer was in Kansas City, the Royals lucked out on this one.

The Royals went with stopgap Lucas Duda and rookie Hunter Dozier at first base. But in the past month, Ryan O’Hearn has asserted himself as the first baseman of the immediate future. Hosmer has underperformed on his enormous contract with 16 homers and 62 RBI while playing essentially every day. O’Hearn has 10 homers and 24 RBI in less than one-fifth as many at bats. Hosmer’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total is just 0.9, while O’Hearn’s is already 1.2.

Lorenzo Cain – The Royals were loath to let Cain depart, but they feared his age and injury history made him a poor investment for a rebuilding team. They will ultimately be proved right, but it comes as no surprise Cain is tearing up the National League. He’s currently batting .313 with a .403 on-base percentage. In terms of WAR, Cain is the second best position player in the National League.

In Cain’s absence, the Royals have employed several options in centerfield, primarily Jon Jay (more on him later). None was a permanent fix, and current frontrunner Brett Phillips, acquired midseason, may not be either.

As compensation for letting Cain and Hosmer depart via free agency, the Royals received additional draft picks (in the 33rd and 34th slot) in the 2018 draft. By picking college pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch, the Royals may have added two pieces of their starting rotation of the very near future.

The Royals wouldn’t have been a good team in 2018 had they resigned Cain, and they were right to rebuild without him. But there is no doubt, they would be a much better team today with him. The same can’t be said about Hosmer.

Jason Vargas – The Royals let their top starting pitcher from 2017 walk, judging correctly that the 34 year old’s 18-11 record was unrepeatable. They were right. The New York Mets are paying Vargas $6 million for disastrous output. They are on the hook for $16 million more over the next two seasons, and the results are likely to get worse.

Vargas’ rotation spot was handed to Jakob Junis, and the 25-year-old looks like a building block of the future.

Brandon Moss – For some inexplicable reason, the Oakland A’s were willing to trade two minor league pitchers for Moss and pitcher Ryan Buchter. Moss’ skills had slipped to the point he was released by Oakland in spring training, and no other team wants him.

In exchange for Moss, the Royals acquired Heath Fillmyer and minor leaguer Jesse Hahn. Fillmyer has made some good starts in Kansas City, and Hahn, injured all of 2018, still holds some promise.

By not wasting playing time on Moss, the Royals have been able to audition outfielders like Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin.

Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander – This one hurts when you look just at 2018. The Royals traded these two essentially to rid themselves of Soria’s contract. But Alexander was a valuable young piece of the bullpen and he’s been very good for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Soria was rejuvenated with the Chicago White Sox.

The Royals received two quality prospects in Trevor Oaks and Erick Mejia, but neither is setting any worlds on fire.

The Royals shipped out a long list of pitchers after 2017, including Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Peter Moylan, Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood. The good news is the Royals are giving all those innings to young pitchers who may be good in the future.

Changes during the 2018 season:

Jon Jay – Jay was very good in a short stint with the Royals, but he was signed expressly to flip for prospects. Eighteen-year-old Elvis Luciano has loads of talent and time to develop it. Gabe Speier is an organizational filler who may reach the big leagues eventually.

Kelvin Herrera – It was essential not only that Herrera be traded, but that it be done at just the right time. Score a big win here for Moore. Herrera was near perfect for half a season in Kansas City. He was dealt for three prospects and promptly went into decline.

The return for Herrera has been solid. Kelvin Gutierrez, a minor league third baseman who is exceeding expectations at Double A. Depending on how Dozier fares, Gutierrez may be the Royals third baseman of the future. Blake Perkins is a talented outfielder who needs time to develop. Another 18-year-old named Yohanse Morel was thrown in and may be a player eventually.

Mike Moustakas – Moustakas has been good for the Milwaukee Brewers since being dealt on July 27 – six homers and a .277 average. But trading him was the only choice.

The Royals hoped to rake in the prospects for Moose. They may not have done that, but pitcher Jorge Lopez nearly pitched a perfect game last week, and has been ok in his other five starts. Brett Phillips has loads of skill, but will have to learn to hit. Like Lopez, his talent is intriguing.

Having won 13 of 19 since August 24, the new season is inspiring hope. Like manager Ned Yost said Friday night, “It’s starting to get fun again.”

]]>
1146
Reasons to watch KC during season’s final month http://toddfertigwrites.com/1131-2/ Sat, 01 Sep 2018 15:03:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1131 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 25, 2018 – you can read it here.

It’s almost football season.

Kansas City Royals fans are about to revive what had become a tradition. If they haven’t stopped paying attention already, they will soon ignore the Royals to fully devote their attention to their favorite football teams.

Over the past five seasons, from 2013 to 2017, Royals fans actually experienced what is commonplace to a few privileged fan bases – meaningful fall baseball. There are few things better than trying to juggle watching the slate of football games while following a baseball team in a pennant race.

That won’t be the case this year. Is there anything to keep Royals fans interested with the Chiefs, college and high school football all kicking off in the next couple of weeks?

Actually, if you like watching young prospects cut their teeth in the big leagues, if you enjoy following the rebuilding process, if looking for signs of hope on the horizon is your deal, then yes, there are things to keep you interested.

A star at shortstop:

There is a pretty depressing argument about who is the best shortstop in Royals’ history. It boils down to two candidates, Freddie Patek and Alcides Escobar. So who was better, a weak-hitting, solid fielder with some speed, or another weak-hitting, solid fielder with some speed? Both benefitted from playing supporting roles on really good teams.

But there is hope for something better. Royals fans have been hearing for years about the potential of Adalberto Mondesi. Now they are finally getting a glimpse of what Mondesi can do. Manager Ned Yost recently said he thinks Mondesi has no idea how good he can be. A slick fielder with incredible speed and surprising pop in his bat, Mondesi has the chance to make fans forget Patek and Escobar entirely.

The bar is remarkably low. If he can stay healthy, bat .250 with 10-15 home runs and 25 or more stolen bases for several seasons in a row, there will be no question who was the best Royals shortstop. Those goals seem low for a guy with Mondesi’s talent.

The outfield derby:

Kansas City will have to sort through a host of potential outfielders over the next couple of years, before some of their top prospects start to percolate to the majors. Guys who have been around a while need to show they can contribute to a winner. Jorge Bonifacio must hit. Jorge Soler must get healthy and show his hot start to 2018 is sustainable.

Some new acquisitions are forcing their way into the equation, and may eventually push the Jorges to the side. Brett Phillips is a star with the glove. But can he hit? Will Brian Goodwin, who has been injured for the past several weeks, finally play up to his initial billing? What role will suit the versatile Rosell Herrera? These questions will begin to be answered over the next month.

A mashing first baseman:

Veteran minor-league first baseman Ryan O’Hearn had to be frustrated watching the Royals try to mold Hunter Dozier to the position at the big league level. But O’Hearn bided his time and finally got his chance. And so far, he’s blasting homer runs and holding his own. Don’t panic over his low batting average just yet. He makes hard contact and can get the ball over the fence.

Pitching. Lots of pitching:

Seemingly every night some young pitcher makes his debut for the Royals. Kansas City started spring training with a veteran rotation consisting of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, and one young guy in Jakob Junis. Injuries and ineffectiveness wiped out that plan. The door swung wide open for just about everybody in the upper minors.

Brad Keller has done nothing less than pitch like one of the best rookies in baseball. Junis has been inconsistent, but good enough. Beyond that, a stream of hurlers have taken their shot. While perhaps none of them will be starters when the Royals again contend in the American League, plenty of arms will be needed in the rotation and in the bullpen. So the auditions have started. Among the 11 starters used by Kansas City so far in 2018, count Heath Fillmyer, Eric Skoglund, Burch Smith, Glenn Sparkman, Trevor Oaks and Jorge Lopez as potential rotation options for the future. Each will get plenty of innings in September.

Roster expansion:

Think you need a scorecard to know who’s on the field now? Wait another week. When the league allows teams to expand their rosters on September 1, the Royals could conceivably call up any of the minor leaguers listed on the 40-man roster. They won’t bring up 15 more players, but they will call up several. One guys worth watching if he gets the call is Josh Staumont, a reliever known to throw harder than 100 mph.

#1 draft choice at stake:

If you find yourself rooting for the Royals to win games, stop. The Royals have nothing to gain, and one significant thing to lose, by winning games – the first pick in the 2019 amateur draft. Difference makers can be found in any spot in the draft, but it’s ideal to have your pick of any amateur in America. Wouldn’t it be fun to add a future Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones or Ken Griffey to the Royals mix?

These are some things to keep in mind while you’re watching football.

]]>
1131
A player-by-player breakdown of the Royals at their halfway point http://toddfertigwrites.com/a-player-by-player-breakdown-of-the-royals-at-their-halfway-point/ Tue, 21 Aug 2018 02:09:31 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1078 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 30, 2018 – you can read it here. Friday’s game was the Royals’ 81st of the season. Exactly one half of the campaign was in the books following that game. One might argue that the only numbers that matter are the number of wins and losses recorded thus far.

But to anyone who grew up studying the back of baseball cards, there are lots of numbers that matter. Championships aren’t the only thing that capture the imagination and make baseball a beautiful thing to study.

Batting averages, home runs, ERA and strikeouts, and less traditional measures such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) go down in the record books and make some players into legends, and others just faces in the crowd.

The halfway point of a season is the most logical point, as well as the easiest mathematically, to evaluate how things are going. Obviously, things aren’t going well in Kansas City. But a review of individual statistics may provide some glimmer of hope, or at least something other than wins and losses to obsess over.

2018 Projected Team Leaders at the Halfway Point:

Hits: Whit Merrifield, 170; Home Runs: Mike Moustakas, 30; RBI: Mike Moustakas, 100; Stolen Bases: Whit Merrifield, 32; Wins: Jakob Junis, 10; Saves: Kelvin Herrera, 14; Strikeouts: Jakob Junis 180

Mike Moustakas: Of all their current players, the Royals are most desperate to trade Moose, so a good first half was critical to his market value. He started out hot, as if to prove everyone wrong who passed over him in free agency. With 8 home runs in April, it looked like he might threaten the team record of 38, which he established in 2017.

But a cool couple of months have clouded Moustakas’ prospects considerably. He completed the first half with 15 home runs, and probably won’t finish out the season in Kansas City, so last year’s record is safe. His 134 career home runs place him eighth on the Royals all time list, and just 10 more would move him past John Mayberry into seventh. (One note for Moustakas to consider after this season: were he to return to Kansas City as a free agent, just 64 more homers in a Royals uniform would move him to second place on the team’s list.)

Salvador Perez: The Royals entered the season promising to give the big catcher more days off from behind the plate. Before they could enact that plan, however, Perez missed a month with a knee injury. The Royals did play him 10 times at designated hitter and once at first base. So they have made some effort to rest him. His 11 homers in 60 games looks good, but his other numbers are down from previous years. His string of five straight all-star games is in jeopardy.

Whit Merifield: His 4 home runs look paltry compared to the 19 he belted last season. However, his 30 walks in the first half already top the 29 he drew last year. And his 16 stolen bases have him on pace to surpass the 34 bags he swiped to lead the American League last year. He is currently in third place in the league in that category.

Jorge Soler, Jorge Bonifacio and Cheslor Cuthbert: Manager Ned Yost swore he would make sure Soler, Bonifacio and Cuthbert each get at least 500 at bats this season. It seemed imperative to the rebuild that the team find out what it has in these three players.

This isn’t going to happen. First Bonifacio was suspended for half the season, and has just returned. Then Cuthbert sustained a back injury in mid-May and has missed more than a month. He’s batted just 103 times thus far, with dismal returns. Soler batted 223 times before breaking a bone in his foot. The good news is that he was tapping into his infinite potential before the injury, and hopes to return soon.

Lucas Duda: The big first baseman smashed 30 home runs last year, so the Royals signed him, mostly hoping to trade him midseason. Approaching that home run total again would have been nice. No such luck. He sits on just 5, and probably has little trade value, if any.

Danny Duffy: The supposed “ace” of the Royals pitching staff was an enormous disappointment the first two months of the season. For the past month, he’s been solid (and at times spectacular), and with a 4-7 record so far, he may still reach double digits in victories, a feat he’s only achieved once. He’s on pace to set career highs for starts and innings.

Jakob Junis: With a 5-9 record currently, Junis still has a chance to reach double-digit wins. Doing so would top the 9 wins he tallied his rookie year. But in direct contrast to Duffy, Junis started the season brilliantly and has since fallen apart. Junis, Ian Kennedy (1-8) and Jason Hammel (2-9) might each threaten the season record of 19 losses by a Royals pitcher.

Kelvin Herrera: Although he was traded well before the halfway point of the season, Herrera is essentially guaranteed to lead the team in saves. He had 14 when he was dealt, and no other Royal has more than 2.

Though he’s still only 28 years old, Herrera is third in most games pitched by a Royal. He spent very little time as the team’s closer, but departed Kansas City just one save away from fourth place on the team’s all-time saves list.

Royals fans can’t forget 2018 soon enough. But the numbers posted by individuals make up a larger story of careers and statistics are added to record books. Even in the worst of seasons, they are part of what makes baseball a wonderful game.

]]>
1078
Which current players will KC keep as foundation for youth movement? http://toddfertigwrites.com/which-current-players-will-kc-keep-as-foundation-for-youth-movement/ Tue, 21 Aug 2018 01:52:25 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1073 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 16, 2018 – you can read it here.

For the past several months, discouraged yet loyal Royals fans have set their sights on 2021 as the year the Royals will again be competitive.

While that means a long, bleak wait, it isn’t unusual in today’s game. The league has embraced the philosophy of building in cycles. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are two recent examples of clubs that tolerated stretches of extreme failure in order to allow a wave of talent to matriculate to the major leagues on a schedule.

So expecting fans to accept a couple of rotten seasons on faith isn’t out of the ordinary. While Royals’ team officials may not specify the 2021 deadline, they practically shouted that expectation from on high on June 4, when they drafted an overwhelming number of college players. With two to three years being a natural period of development for most college draftees, sights are set squarely on 2021. That season was already the ETA for a number of top prospects currently in the Royals’ lowest levels of the farm system.

When looking at minor league player development, it’s no longer meaningful to pay attention to age. It’s all about service time and player control. When a player reaches the big leagues, he is generally under team control for five years. Thus a wave of talent reaching the big leagues in 2021 could potentially stay in tact until 2026.

So, a logical question would be, who on the current Royals team will be available in 2021 to serve as the established veterans, the foundation for the youth movement to build upon?

Perhaps the key Royal moving forward is catcher Salvador Perez. His exuberance and toughness make him a fan favorite one can hardly foresee being traded. He may be the one player crucial to maintaining fan loyalty through the bleak years. His contract runs through 2021, when he will be 31. Unfortunately, catchers don’t age well. Unlike catching greats like Joe Mauer or Johnny Bench, a move to first base isn’t a great option for Perez. He’s just not quite good enough with the bat. The best-case scenario would be for Perez to remain one of the top defensive catchers well into the next decade. But time is particularly cruel to catchers. Keeping Perez or trading him while he has value is one of the toughest decisions facing the Kansas City front office.

Dealing veterans in the last year of their contracts before the trade deadline is key to acquiring prospects, and the Royals collected a few inexpensive trading chips in the offseason for just that purpose. Jon Jay was the first short-timer to be dealt, and several others must be swapped before July 31. Kelvin Herrera, Jason Hammel, Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda will be shopped extensively, because their contracts are up. Drew Butera might also fetch something on the market. Unfortunately Alcides Escobar probably holds zero value, but certainly the Royals anticipated that when they resigned him for this season. Blaine Boyer also won’t bring any value.

Of those on the roster who have one or two years remaining after 2018, the contracts of Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon make them untradeable. The Royals will just have to build around them as veteran clubhouse leaders who won’t be around in 2021. Ryan Goins, Abraham Almonte and Justin Grimm are nothing more than placeholders. Nate Karns is the one player whose contract is up in 2020 who might be a part of the youth movement.

That makes 13 2018 Royals who most certainly will be gone come 2021. While that seems like the core of the roster, there are actually quite a few players in Kansas City now who could constitute a talented foundation for the future.

The Royals could have Whit Merrifield (signed through 2022) and Hunter Dozier (2023) to fill spots in the infield, as well as Cheslor Cuthbert (2021), who has yet to prove his worth. Still awaiting his shot at shortstop is Adalberto Mondesi, who is still just 22 years old and under team control through 2023. A versatile backup could be Ramon Torres, also a Royal through 2023.

Outfield options in 2021 look promising with Jorge Soler (signed through 2021) and Jorge Bonifacio (2022). Backups could include Paolo Orlando and Billy Burns (both signed through 2021) who have logged a lot of time as emergency call-ups from Triple-A Omaha. That group is not good enough, obviously, but could prove supportive to new additions.

Essential to building a winner is pitching. Long the Royals’ biggest failure, the team must assemble a premier starting rotation. Hammel and Kennedy will be gone, but the prospects are actually encouraging looking forward.

The sudden emergence of rookie Brad Keller gives the Royals a small collection of starters to build around. Jakob Junis has been the Royals best starter for more than a year now, and he’s under contract through 2023. Eric Skoglund has flashed signs of potential, and he’s also a Royal through 2023.

Duffy, signed through 2021, wants to be a Royal for life. It may prove preferable, however, to deal him sooner rather than later and bank on younger starters. If some solid starters can be produced from the recent draft, they might supplement some combination of Duffy, Keller, Junis and Skoglund for a quality rotation well beyond 2021.

Any member of that group of starters might also wind up reinforcing a bullpen with many youthful candidates. Bryan Flynn (under contract through 2021), Burch Smith (2023), Kevin McCarthy (2023) and rookies Tim Hill and Scott Barlow are already earning their stripes in the majors and should form a solid core for years to come.

Losing a lot of games the next couple of years will be hard to accept for a fan base whose expectations suddenly went through the roof in 2014. But by keeping an eye on 2021, optimism isn’t impossible. The current Royals signed through that season won’t be good enough on their own. A new wave of talent must arrive, on time and equal to its billing. But if you squint, you can see the beginnings of a return to competitiveness on the horizon.

 

]]>
1073
Royals’ future will be shaped by draft selections made Monday http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-future-will-be-shaped-by-draft-selections-made-monday/ Sun, 10 Jun 2018 00:26:41 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1043 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 2, 2018 – you can read it here.

With hardly any of the fanfare of the annual NFL and NBA drafts, the major league baseball draft, which will begin Monday, will have a long lasting affect on the fortunes of the Royals, a franchise desperate for an infusion of new talent.

Not only will a lot of young amateurs become rich men tomorrow, but the futures of franchises will be largely determined by the selections made. The baseball draft is much more of a crapshoot than are the drafts of the other major sports. A surprisingly small percentage of the young players drafted will ever reach the major leagues, much less make a significant impact on the franchises that invested millions of dollars in them.

With a farm system widely viewed as the worst in baseball, the Royals need to build upon the work they did in the draft a year ago. Fans have their hopes pinned on a crop of 2017 draftees who are currently honing their skills at the A-ball level. The Royals selected high school first baseman Nick Pratto in the first round, then added a couple of other highly thought-of prospects. Based on rankings from this spring, the Royals added their second, third and fourth best prospects in the most recent draft.

They have an excellent opportunity in 2018 to stockpile even more talent. Thanks to compensatory picks awarded for the loss of free agents, the Royals possess four of the top 40 picks in this draft.

It won’t be for several years, however, before we know if the Royals drafted well or not.

Even taking into account slow development, generally you expect a high round draft pick taken out of college to reach the majors in 2 to 3 years, and one from the high school ranks pick to reach within about 5 years. In each case, that puts the player arriving at the big league level at about 23 years of age.

Using this criteria, high school players drafted between 2008 and 2013, and college players drafted between 2010 and 2015 should make up at least a portion of the Royals roster. Some advance a little quicker, some develop a little slower.

With this in mind, the Royals current problems can be blamed in large part upon unproductive drafting in the first round the past several years.

Considering that baseball drafting is very hit and miss, the Royals were considerably effective with their top picks in the 2000s, which led directly to their success in 2014 and 2015. Zach Greinke (drafted in 2002 and flipped for key pieces in 2010), Billy Butler (2004), Alex Gordon (2005), Luke Hochevar (2006), Mike Moustakas (2007) and Eric Hosmer (2008) were all taken while the Royals drafted in enviably high positions each year, due to their dreadful performance at the big league level.

Sadly, time marches on, and the Royals needed to continue their run of success in the first round of the draft to backfill as those players aged and their big league contracts ran out. For a variety of reasons, that hasn’t happened.

Imagine if, in the five years following the drafting of Hosmer in 2008, the Royals had used first round draft picks on two front-line starting pitchers, a legitimate shortstop, third baseman and centerfielder. Those players would all be relatively new to the big leagues and under club control for the next several years. With pieces like that in place, the current rebuild would be more like a reload.

Unfortunately the players described above are not to be found in Kansas City.

In 2009, the Royals drafted Washburn Rural’s own Aaron Crow, a college pitcher who contributed to the Royals rebuild, but was derailed by injuries. In 2010, they took college shortstop Christian Colon, who was with the Royals during their World Series runs, but contributed little and is now unwanted by any team.

Then the really bad luck started. In 2011, the Royals felt compelled to draft Bubba Starling a local stud with limited baseball exposure. In 2012, they selected a coveted college pitcher named Kyle Zimmer. Injuries and poor performance have knocked these two completely off course, and it’s doubtful either will ever produce anything.

In 2013, the Royals drafted Hunter Dozier, who may still contribute something to the big league club, but certainly hasn’t set any worlds on fire.

If you want to make yourself ill, take a few minutes to look over the list of players drafted shortly AFTER the Royals made those selections. You’ll find names like Mike Trout, Chris Sale, Francisco Lindor and George Springer.

The Royals did do one thing for which they deserve credit: they drafted a couple of pitchers in 2013 and 2014 that they traded for key pieces in their World Series run. Pitchers being the commodity that they are, the Royals wisely dealt Sean Manaea and Brandon Finnegan to ensure a championship.

The bad luck continued in 2015 when the Royals used two first round picks on high school pitchers who have thus far been huge disappointments. In 2016, the Royals did not have a first round selection, having forfeited it to sign free agent Ian Kennedy.

So it’s easy to see why the top picks from 2017, and those who will be drafted this week, are so crucial to the Royals rebuild.

Now obviously, just as not all first round picks are sure-fire stars, first rounders aren’t the only ones who make it to the majors. Fortunately, the current Royals include some diamonds plucked from the rough, namely Danny Duffy and Eric Skoglund (3rd round), Jason Adam (5th round), Whit Merrifield (9th round), Kevin McCarthy (16th round), Jakob Junis (29th round) and Tim Hill (32nd round). The Royals need to continue to scour solid big leaguers from the lower rounds. But it’s in the first round they must turn the tide.

The Royals will make some young men very wealthy Monday. Will those draft picks restore the fortunes of the Royals in turn? Kansas City is the only team with four picks in the first round. Draft history shows that not all four of those picks will reach the major leagues, much less turn into stars. But the addition of several quality prospects, combined with the solid class taken in 2017, could go a long ways toward shaping a brighter future for the franchise.

]]>
1043