Lucas Duda – Todd Fertig Writes https://toddfertigwrites.com Tue, 16 Jul 2019 03:25:03 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: As trade deadline approaches, Kansas City looking to sell https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-as-trade-deadline-approaches-kansas-city-looking-to-sell/ Tue, 16 Jul 2019 03:25:03 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1464 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 13 – you can read it by clicking here.

For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Royals look to be sellers as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, hoping to improve their farm system by trading away players who aren’t a long-term fit.

That means that, for the second year in a row, the team that finishes the season in Kansas City will look dramatically different from the one that started it.

While many more losses will follow the trade deadline, many interesting things could take place in Kansas City, things which hopefully will eventually lead to the resurgence of the franchise.

Which deals get made?

Last year the Royals were able to move players much more quickly than they have this season. By this time last year, the Royals had flipped Jon Jay and Kelvin Herrera for a considerable return. They would soon add more prospects by trading Mike Moustakas. And they would sell Terrance Gore and Lucas Duda, and trade Drew Butera.

This year’s trade market has been cold and the Royals have yet to make a single trade of significance.

They have several players under contract beyond 2019 that they would love to move if the right deal presented itself, starting with Ian Kennedy and possibly including Alex Gordon.

But they are more desperate to get anything in return for the guys with expiring contracts. Most likely to be traded are pitchers Homer Bailey and Jake Diekman and outfielder Billy Hamilton. Martin Maldonado and Gore might have some value somewhere. What the Royals can get in return may not be franchise altering, but anything helps.

Second round of auditions

Losing seasons open windows of opportunity for players trying to prove themselves. When a team no longer cares about wins and losses, it can patiently permit lenghty auditions, trying to find out which players are building blocks and which are merely stop-gaps.

Unfortunately, a few guys who looked like building blocks last season took a big step back this year. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn and outfielders Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio all floundered in 2019, but may get a callback. Each is benefiting from a lack of other options at his position within the organization.

A year ago Cheslor Cuthbert’s career appeared to be dead. But injuries and O’Hearn’s failure gave the 26-year-old another shot at the big leagues, and he’s been at least passable. With Hunter Dozier locking down third base, Cuthbert needs to show he can handle first base and be a run-producer. O’Hearn may return to KC and take some of Cuthbert’s playing time down the stretch. But the opportunity is there for Cuthbert, and he needs to seize it.

Getting an even longer look have been the pitchers at the big league level. With so few big-league quality starting pitchers, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis will receive infinite number of chances to figure things out. Glenn Sparkman may not have as long a leash, as the Royals may try some other options. But if Bailey gets dealt, someone will have to start. Eric Skoglund, suspended for the first half of the season, will probably get another look.

Ready for openers?

With almost no starting pitchers in Triple-A pushing for a promotion, the Royals may experiment with using an “opener” rather than a starter. This strategy is gaining acceptance around the league, and the Royals look ready to give it a try. They’ve been toying with it with flame-throwing Josh Staumont and reclamation project Kyle Zimmer at Triple-A. Both guys have more than enough talent and just need to find the right fit. Opening may be just the ticket to finally tap their ability.

It’s finally Bubba Time!

Fans finally have the long-awaited debut of Gardner-Edgerton product Bubba Starling. At long last, the center fielder was healthy and hitting enough to be called up from Omaha. The Royals held him back, probably making sure his success is sustainable, and trying to get anything they can in exchange for Hamilton.

At worst, Starling is essentially a copy of Hamilton – a great defender who can’t hit. But Starling’s newfound success at the plate provides hope he’s finally ready to thrive in KC. His immense popularity on the Kansas side of the city will provide a boost at the box office, if nothing else.

Late season promotions

Expanded big league rosters and minor-league playoff races always cause a lot of player movement in September. Trades will open roster spots in Kansas City even earlier. The reshuffling the last two months of the season will provide lots of opportunities and some indication of who the Royals see as pieces of the future. Aside from Staumont and Zimmer, guys to watch for in KC will be pitcher Richard Lovelady, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and jack-of-all-trades Erick Mejia.

Movement in the minor leagues will be just as interesting. Will top prospect Khalil Lee get a promotion to Triple-A? Will stud pitchers Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch successfully adjust to Double-A? And will uber-prospect Bobby Witt, Jr., currently at the Arizona rookie league, get promoted to a full-season club? Witt is already 19 and should be ready for the challenge.

Soler’s historic chase

Jorge Soler is on pace to hit 42 home runs. That would easily surpass Moustakas’ team record of 38. The Royals bear the embarrassment of being baseball’s only team without a 40-homer season in their history. With home runs flying out of parks at a record pace league-wide, the accomplishment might seem somewhat tainted. But juiced balls and a tighter strike zone aside, Soler’s emergence has been a much-needed breakthrough for the power-starved Royals.

Another strong finish

Despite a horrendous overall record, the 2018 Royals finished with a flourish, inspiring great optimism for 2019. But the new season started with a thud, and too many guys – Keller, Junis, O’Hearn, Jorge Lopez – took a step back. It would be refreshing if some prospects could infuse some energy into the club once again this year. Wins and losses won’t matter, but a recovery of some hope could still be attained down the stretch.

 

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Royals look to flip one-year contracts to improve talent pool https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-look-to-flip-one-year-contracts-to-improve-talent-pool/ Fri, 21 Jun 2019 04:11:49 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1433 At the beginning of the 2018 season, the Kansas City Royals hung a placard out for the rest of the league: “For sale.” They brought in Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Blaine Boyer, and brought back Mike Moustakas with the sole intent of trading them for prospects mid-season.

While not making it their intent this year, the Royals once again have a handful of players they may be interested in flipping this summer. Doing so could fetch some helpful minor leaguers, while clearing the way for younger Royals to gain valuable experience. It’s exactly what happened last season, and it’s the only thing that could salvage this wretched campaign.

The players in the clubhouse know it’s coming. It’s a harsh reality, but one they accept. It affects them professionally – who wouldn’t want to be traded from a cellar-dweller to a playoff contender mid season? But it also affects them professionally – should they move their families for what could be only a couple of months?

“It really doesn’t affect your daily approach to things at all,” said Terrance Gore, who was acquired late in the 2018 campaign by the playoff-bound Chicago Cubs from the Royals. “It more affects your family more than anything. You may have to pack up and leave at any point and time on short notice. But as a player it really doesn’t affect you. You just go out there and play the game the way you’ve been playing.

“If it happens, it happens. Sometimes it’s a good thing. Sometimes it’s a bad thing. But leaving the Royals, because I’ve been with the Royals so long, it’s definitely a bad thing, because I’ll always be a Royal no matter where I go. But if it happens to you, it’s just something you have to live with.”

Major League Baseball set a hard deadline for trades this year – July 31 is the cutoff. So deals may start happening a little earlier than in years past.

Players like Gore understand that deft trades at mid-season can change history. When the Royals won the 2015 World Series, it was in large part due to the trade-deadline acquisitions of Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto. And last year, the Royals were on the selling end, shipping Moustakas at the deadline to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jorge Lopez and Brett Phillips.

“Every player does look at it as an opportunity,” Gore said of being traded to a contending team. “It’s a chance to contribute to something special.

“We look at it as a business. Sometimes giving away one player you can get two players in return that will make the team better in the long run. I’m always a Royal, and anything that will help the organization in the long run, I’m cool with it.”

A few one-year flippables on the team might have some value on the trade market. First and foremost is Jake Diekman. While the bullpen has been pretty awful as a whole, the 32-year-old lefty has been tough, with a WHIP barely above 1.00 and more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings. The Royals signed him to a one-year deal knowing he could very well be trade bait.

Sadly neither Wily Peralta nor Brad Boxberger – other relievers on one-year deals – won’t attract similar trade interest.

Homer Bailey’s hot and cold performances might not attract a great haul, but some team in need of a starter might give him a try.

Two one-year position players might bring some prospects, if just the right trade partners can be found.

Martin Maldonado holds tremendous value for any contending team who finds itself in need of a catcher down the stretch. Maldonado is a whiz defensively and has shown he can quickly bond with a pitching staff. He won’t be a difference maker with the bat, but he could save a season for a team in need of a rock behind the plate.

Outfielder Billy Hamilton has failed to provide much offense, but the rest of the league knows what he can do: play great defense and steal bases. A team that could use a late-game pinch runner and defensive replacement could get some real good out of the 28-year-old speed demon. Trading Hamilton would also open a spot for prospect Bubba Starling to finally make his long-awaited debut.

The Royals should do anything and everything necessary to trade all of the players mentioned above. None of them fit the organization’s future plans, and will just be taking up space if they are on the roster after July 31.

And none of them hold any sentimental value to the organization. That cannot be said, however, for Alex Gordon, whose contract runs out after this year as well. Would the Royals actually consider trading the local product, the pillar of the franchise and fixture in the community?

Other teams have traded cornerstone stars at the deadline – Justin Verlander, David Price and Yoenis Cespedes are just a few from recent years. But for a beleaguered club to trade a guy who’s labored faithfully for 13 years is hard to envision.

Other difficult deals to swing could involve guys with more than one year left on their contracts. It was reported (although General Manager Dayton Moore denied it) that the Royals are open to trading nearly everyone on their current roster.

If a deal can be found for Ian Kennedy, the Royals shouldn’t hesitate. He shows some potential as a reliever, but he won’t be with Kansas City past next year, and his contract is an albatross.

Whit Merrifield would probably bring the most in return, and the Royals might be open to dealing him, despite having three very affordable years left on his contract. If Jorge Soler continues to crush home runs, he might also have value on the trade market. And Danny Duffy might be attractive to some team.

Those three players should only be traded for a haul in return, as they each hold value for the ongoing rebuild. But if enough is offered in return, none should be considered untouchable. Gordon might fall in a different category, and it would understandable if the Royals choose to keep him.

Otherwise, let the wheeling and dealing begin!

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Royals Rundown: Parting with Brian Goodwin one of many strange KC decisions https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-parting-with-brian-goodwin-one-of-many-strange-kc-decisions/ Sun, 28 Apr 2019 23:14:09 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1346 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 29 – you can read it by clicking here.

The Kansas City Royals struggle to straddle the fence between building for the future and competing in the present. The balancing act forces them to make difficult personnel decisions. Factor in the clubs’ fiscal restraints, and the Royals’ roster makeup is by no means an exact science.

Expectations for 2019 being what they are, there might not be a real point to nitpick every decision. But it’s hard not to question some of the team’s decisions.

Look no further than an outfielder who is visiting Kauffman Stadium this weekend, the California Angels’ Brian Goodwin. The name sounds familiar, of course, because he’s the same guy who was a part of the Royals’ outfield plans, until he wasn’t.

On March 25, three days before opening day, the Royals waived Goodwin when he seemed a lock for Kansas City’s active roster. The Royals, after all, had traded for Goodwin in the middle of 2018 and thrust him into their outfield mix.

Goodwin’s presence gave the Royals the opportunity to send Jorge Bonifacio and Brett Phillips to the minors. They preferred to play Jorge Soler at designated hitter. Their top prospects weren’t ready to make the jump to the big leagues. The situation seemed perfect for Goodwin. It all made perfect sense.

But suddenly and without warning, the Royals sent the 28-year-old packing.

“I was shocked,” Goodwin told the Los Angeles Times earlier this season. “I had plans to find a place to live in Kansas City … not necessarily buying anything, but being there for the year. They told me they were going another way and I wasn’t in the plan. It was short and sweet but to the point. Well … it wasn’t very sweet.”

The Angels, probably as shocked as Goodwin was about the development, quickly snatched him off waivers and inserted him right into their lineup. So far, he’s rewarded them with a .333 batting average (which would lead the Royals) and a .423 on-base percentage entering the weekend series in Kansas City. He’s versatile, athletic, a good defender – just they type of thing the Royals typically value.

While the Royals’ outfield hasn’t been the reason for their sluggish start, it’s hard to fathom not having a place for Goodwin on the roster. By jettisoning Goodwin, they set themselves up for some less-than-desirable fits in right field. First, they started the season playing Whit Merrifield in right, and putting Chris Owings at second base. Then, they shifted to another arrangement – playing Jorge Soler everyday in right, which they had very recently said they wanted to avoid. Their intention had been to employ the oft-injured Soler at designated hitter whenever possible. But with Goodwin gone, they backpedeled from that declaration.

The optics of Goodwin returning to Kauffman Stadium with enviable stats are not good. But strange as it looks, the Goodwin decision is not the Royals’ only questionable move in this young season.

Keeping Terrence Gore on the roster: The idea seemed crazy. Reserve a roster spot for a pinch runner who possesses no other big league-caliber skills? What value would a pinch-running specialist have on a team with no chance at the playoffs? Thus far, the gamble has had mixed results. Gore has hit far better than anyone ever thought he might. But a “designated runner” prone to getting picked off in do-or-die situations is worth nothing.

Rushing Kyle Zimmer to the big leagues: Injuries have riddled Zimmer’s seven professional seasons. His experience entering 2019 was limited to less than 270 minor league innings. He didn’t pitch at all, anywhere, in 2018. Thrusting him under the bright lights of the major leagues while he was still rebuilding his arm, not to mention his confidence, seemed hasty. Zimmer’s talent wasn’t enough to get him through the first month of the season. He faltered in three games and was sent to the minors to regroup.

Signing Owings and playing him daily: The Royals signed Owings to a one-year deal for $3 million as a super-utility man. They had a more athletic super-utility option in Roselle Herrera, who was costing them just $560,000. But they expelled Herrera and brought in Owings. Ok if he’s going to fill a need just until prospect Nicki Lopez is deemed ready for the major leagues. But it’s not ok to play him every day. That’s what the Royals are doing. Owings has played in all but one game this season, hitting just .157 with no power or speed to provide any value. (FYI, Herrera found a spot on the Miami Marlins’ roster.)

Bringing back Lucas Duda: Most baffling of all is that the Royals decided to start the season with both Frank Schwindel and Duda – two big, slow first basemen – instead of keeping Goodwin. Schwindel has since been sent to the minors. But the Royals retained Duda, who is a redundancy. With a lefthanded first baseman in Ryan O’Hearn already on the roster, Duda provides nothing unique, and he is by no means part of the Royals’ future. The Royals were unable to trade Duda for anything last summer, and he appears to be worth even less now.

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Royals Rundown: Future of Royals will begin to take shape in 2019 https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-future-of-royals-will-begin-to-take-shape-in-2019/ Mon, 25 Mar 2019 01:33:43 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1295 The following article was featured in the Topeka Capital-Journal on March 23, 2019. You can find it here.

A fresh start can’t come soon enough for the Kansas City Royals.

When the Royals take the field on Thursday, they hope to erase the memory of the second-worst season in the history of the organization. Only the disastrous 2005 campaign, in which the Royals posted 56-106 record, was worse.

Last season’s attempt to compete with retreads and one-year fliers failed miserably. Against the better judgment of virtually every analyst, the Royals tried to cut payroll, rebuild the minor league system, and still compete with a collection of misfits. No one was surprised when the experiment was a complete catastrophe. When the Royals got off to a 7-21 start, the season seemed to be wasted. By May of 2018, fans were already resigned to fast-forward to 2019.

But looking beyond the win-loss column, something happened in the second half of the season that provides cause for optimism.

Once General Manager Dayton Moore was forced to give up hopes of competing, he shifted to what most believed should have been the plan all along. He finally started flipping his trade pieces for prospects. Fans bid farewell to holdovers from the championship team like Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas and Drew Butera. With considerably less sentimentality, the Royals also flipped one-year stopgaps Lucas Duda and Jon Jay.

The prospects the Royals received in return went a long way toward rebuilding the farm system. But perhaps even more importantly, emptying the cupboard allowed youngsters a chance to show what they could do. Enter athletic types Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, Brett Phillips, Brian Goodwin and young arms Jorge Lopez and Heath Fillmyer.

Those newcomers joined a young cohort already in Kansas City – Brad Keller, Jacob Junis, Hunter Dozier – and suddenly things clicked.

Buried on August 24 by a 39-90 start to the season, this revamped roster started playing with passion. The kids played to show what they could do, essentially auditioning for roles in 2019. They played at a .586 clip the rest of the way.

A youth movement is now afoot. With it comes tempered expectations. No one anticipates the 2019 Royals winning anywhere near 58 percent of their games. Anything near .500 would, frankly, come as a shock.

But the good news is you won’t be watching a collection of one-year trade chips this year. The players taking the field for Kansas City this summer may well be around for years to come. If the Royals are to be good in 2021 and beyond, it will be with Mondesi, Keller, and some of the others likely playing a large role.

Things change fast. Only a few members of the beloved 2015 squad will be around. Alex Gordon will almost certainly play his last season as a Royal. Fans need to enjoy it while it lasts. Danny Duffy will likely be around for the foreseeable future, and hopefully he can approximate the role of an experienced “ace.”

Sadly, the most popular player left from the championship season will not be in uniform in 2019. Salvador Perez will be repairing an injured arm. Rest assured, whatever time he spends in Kansas City will not go unnoticed. He’ll surely be bounding around the dugout, leading the cheers and the Gatorade splashes. But his bat, his defense, and particularly his on-field leadership, will be sorely missed.

Ultimately, the win-loss record of the 2019 Royals is not important. This team will be about development. But the product on the field will be infinitely more entertaining than last year. And the future will be taking shape before our eyes. That should wash away the awful taste of the 2018 disaster.

Opening day can’t get her quickly enough.

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Royals well represented in these playoffs https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-well-represented-in-these-playoffs/ Sat, 06 Oct 2018 21:41:47 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1159 It’s hard to know just how to feel about the 2018 playoffs.

First of all, it hasn’t been any fun turning on the TV the past two years and not seeing the Royals in the playoffs. Though it was only a two year run, watching the Royals in an unforgettable Wild Card game and 6 playoff series turned a ton of people into playoff baseball watchers.

That’s gone now. But you can’t turn on the TV and not see one of our boys on the screen. The number of former Royals littering playoff rosters is astounding.

2014 or 2015 Royals in the 2018 playoffs:

Brewers: Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Erik Kratz

Rockies: Wade Davis, Drew Butera

Cubs: Ben Zobrist, Terrance Gore

Dodgers: Scott Alexander, Ryan Madson

Braves: Lane Adams

Athletics: Liam Hendricks

Royals from other seasons in the 2018 playoffs:

Brewers: Joakim Soria, Jeremy Jeffress, Manny Pina

Cubs: Jesse Chavez

Athletics: Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter

Indians: Melky Cabrera

Braves: Lucas Duda, Peter Moylan

Did you think you were losing your mind when you saw Wade Davis throwing to Drew Butera? Last time you saw that in a playoff game, the Royals mobbed the field to celebrate winning it all.

No, you’re not having a flashback. You really are seeing 11 players you got used to in Royal blue during 2014 and 2015 playing in the playoffs this year…in different uniforms.

It will most certainly evoke some bittersweet sentiment. The good thing about this situation is that those Royals teams are being referenced plenty during this year’s broadcasts.

Eight more former Royals, most notably Joakim Soria, are going to be in the thick of things this year.

Two guys who won’t, however, are two of KC’s former top prospects. Mike Montgomery, who figured prominently in the Cubs’ 2016 series championship, didn’t get on the field before the Cubs were knocked out in the Wild Card round. And Sean Manaea, ace of the Oakland pitching staff, was felled by injury earlier in the year. Think the A’s didn’t miss Manaea when they had to start another former Royal Liam Hendricks in the most important game of the season?

Watching Cain bound out of the dugout to chase down Moustakas after his game-winning hit Thursday night certainly looked familiar.

You can either watch the 2018 playoffs and be constantly reminded of what recently was in KC. Or you can chose to not watch and avoid the rush of memories. But you can take it as a bit of confirmation just how good those Royals clubs were. Every other team currently in the playoffs seemed to notice.

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Multitude of changes have KC looking up in second half of season https://toddfertigwrites.com/multitude-of-changes-have-kc-looking-up-in-second-half-of-season/ Tue, 18 Sep 2018 00:44:23 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1146 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept 15 – you can read it here.

The Royals have essentially played two seasons in 2018. The first season, the disastrous one in which a group of veterans put up a 27-68 record at the All-Star break, had people worried they might just be the worst team in history (seriously!)

Then they played a second season, going for youth and speed. That team has gone 24-28 since the All-Star break and bolstered the minor league system at the same time.

Some of the choices made by Dayton Moore over the past nine months that produced such a dramatic switch were forced upon him by financial realities. Some were so obviously necessary (like moving Alcides Escobar aside for Adalberto Mondesi) that fans couldn’t figure out what took so long. And a few took serious nerve and ingenuity by Moore.

The list is long of players Kansas City jettisoned. Here’s how those moves are working out so far.

Changes prior to the 2018 season:

Eric Hosmer – The Royals allegedly tried hard to entice Hosmer to return to Kansas City with a hefty contract. Hosmer ultimately opted to sign with the San Diego Padres, and beloved as Hosmer was in Kansas City, the Royals lucked out on this one.

The Royals went with stopgap Lucas Duda and rookie Hunter Dozier at first base. But in the past month, Ryan O’Hearn has asserted himself as the first baseman of the immediate future. Hosmer has underperformed on his enormous contract with 16 homers and 62 RBI while playing essentially every day. O’Hearn has 10 homers and 24 RBI in less than one-fifth as many at bats. Hosmer’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total is just 0.9, while O’Hearn’s is already 1.2.

Lorenzo Cain – The Royals were loath to let Cain depart, but they feared his age and injury history made him a poor investment for a rebuilding team. They will ultimately be proved right, but it comes as no surprise Cain is tearing up the National League. He’s currently batting .313 with a .403 on-base percentage. In terms of WAR, Cain is the second best position player in the National League.

In Cain’s absence, the Royals have employed several options in centerfield, primarily Jon Jay (more on him later). None was a permanent fix, and current frontrunner Brett Phillips, acquired midseason, may not be either.

As compensation for letting Cain and Hosmer depart via free agency, the Royals received additional draft picks (in the 33rd and 34th slot) in the 2018 draft. By picking college pitchers Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch, the Royals may have added two pieces of their starting rotation of the very near future.

The Royals wouldn’t have been a good team in 2018 had they resigned Cain, and they were right to rebuild without him. But there is no doubt, they would be a much better team today with him. The same can’t be said about Hosmer.

Jason Vargas – The Royals let their top starting pitcher from 2017 walk, judging correctly that the 34 year old’s 18-11 record was unrepeatable. They were right. The New York Mets are paying Vargas $6 million for disastrous output. They are on the hook for $16 million more over the next two seasons, and the results are likely to get worse.

Vargas’ rotation spot was handed to Jakob Junis, and the 25-year-old looks like a building block of the future.

Brandon Moss – For some inexplicable reason, the Oakland A’s were willing to trade two minor league pitchers for Moss and pitcher Ryan Buchter. Moss’ skills had slipped to the point he was released by Oakland in spring training, and no other team wants him.

In exchange for Moss, the Royals acquired Heath Fillmyer and minor leaguer Jesse Hahn. Fillmyer has made some good starts in Kansas City, and Hahn, injured all of 2018, still holds some promise.

By not wasting playing time on Moss, the Royals have been able to audition outfielders like Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Brian Goodwin.

Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander – This one hurts when you look just at 2018. The Royals traded these two essentially to rid themselves of Soria’s contract. But Alexander was a valuable young piece of the bullpen and he’s been very good for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Soria was rejuvenated with the Chicago White Sox.

The Royals received two quality prospects in Trevor Oaks and Erick Mejia, but neither is setting any worlds on fire.

The Royals shipped out a long list of pitchers after 2017, including Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Peter Moylan, Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood. The good news is the Royals are giving all those innings to young pitchers who may be good in the future.

Changes during the 2018 season:

Jon Jay – Jay was very good in a short stint with the Royals, but he was signed expressly to flip for prospects. Eighteen-year-old Elvis Luciano has loads of talent and time to develop it. Gabe Speier is an organizational filler who may reach the big leagues eventually.

Kelvin Herrera – It was essential not only that Herrera be traded, but that it be done at just the right time. Score a big win here for Moore. Herrera was near perfect for half a season in Kansas City. He was dealt for three prospects and promptly went into decline.

The return for Herrera has been solid. Kelvin Gutierrez, a minor league third baseman who is exceeding expectations at Double A. Depending on how Dozier fares, Gutierrez may be the Royals third baseman of the future. Blake Perkins is a talented outfielder who needs time to develop. Another 18-year-old named Yohanse Morel was thrown in and may be a player eventually.

Mike Moustakas – Moustakas has been good for the Milwaukee Brewers since being dealt on July 27 – six homers and a .277 average. But trading him was the only choice.

The Royals hoped to rake in the prospects for Moose. They may not have done that, but pitcher Jorge Lopez nearly pitched a perfect game last week, and has been ok in his other five starts. Brett Phillips has loads of skill, but will have to learn to hit. Like Lopez, his talent is intriguing.

Having won 13 of 19 since August 24, the new season is inspiring hope. Like manager Ned Yost said Friday night, “It’s starting to get fun again.”

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Royals GM Dayton Moore planting the seeds for a burgeoning farm system https://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-gm-dayton-moore-planting-the-seeds-for-a-burgeoning-farm-system/ Fri, 24 Aug 2018 01:42:02 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1095 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 4, 2018 – you can read it here.

On June 3, the Royals had a record of 13-36, far and away worst in baseball. The 2018 season was already a lost cause. And to make matters even worse, their farm system was considered to be one of the weakest in the game as well. The team was horrible, and there was little hope in sight.

But when the team stumbled out of the gate and quickly ruined the year, it allowed the team to focus on talent acquisition, and to leverage the few assets it possessed.

General Manager Dayton Moore’s handling of the roster the past two years has been roundly scrutinized. But this summer, he leaped at a chance to improve the pipeline considerably.

First, the Royals utilized compensation picks in the amateur draft, which kicked off on June 4, to quickly inject an infusion of new talent.

The Royals were already pinning their hopes on a collection of youngsters in A-ball – the Lexington and Wilmington clubs – considered the next “wave” of talent comparable to when Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura matriculated up through the system. On June 4, they doubled down on that wave by drafting a passel of college pitchers.

The decision to put so many eggs in this one basket was questioned by some. But by doing so, they essentially doubled the size of the wave. The farm system lacked quality arms, and they Royals added several who could move up quickly, particularly Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic.

Then Moore kicked into action a plan he’d initiated during the winter.

Rather than just hand over positions in the major leagues to unproven rookies, Moore had chosen to stock up on cheap veterans under one-year contracts, hoping to flip them like one would a fixer-upper. While it didn’t work with each of his projects, Moore was able to sign and flip Jon Jay and Mike Moustakas for pennies on the dollar.

The Royals paid Jay about $1.2 million for a couple months of work, then on June 6, acquired a high-ceiling 18-year-old project named Elvis Luciano, plus a minor league pitcher with some potential in Gabe Speier.

On July 27, just before the trade deadline, Moore sent Moustakas to the Milwaukee Brewers for top prospect Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez, both of whom had seen some action in the majors. Thus the Royals invested a mere $3 million in salary to Moustakas to acquire a top outfield candidate and major-league caliber arm.

Between those deals, the Royals flipped reliever Kelvin Herrera, whose contract was about to expire, for two developing minor leaguers in Blake Perkins and Kelvin Gutierrez, plus another young project in 17-year-old pitcher Yohanse Morel.

Beating the bushes even further, Moore picked up a versatile and speedy switch hitter of waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in Rosell Herrera. Then he traded a low-level prospect for former first round draft pick Brian Goodwin. The two joined the Royals and immediately paid dividends.

And just like that, Moore had dramatically restocked the empty cupboard that was the Royals farm system, and added some new blood to the big league team to boot.

Of the Royals top 19 prospects rated by MLB.com, nine were not in the Royals’ system prior to June 4. The wave at the lower levels of the system that was started in 2017 gained strength with college pitchers and college outfielder Kyle Isbel. The mid-level minors was fortified with Perkins, Gutierrez and Speier. Furthermore, Kansas City took a flier on a couple of “lottery tickets” in Luciano and Morel.

Talent wasn’t just injected into the minors. Judging by the recent play of Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Goodwin, help is already arriving in Kansas City.

Next up, the Royals will try to get something – anything – for short-timers Jason Hammel and Lucas Duda via deals that are permitted past the trade deadline. Over the winter, they might listen to offers for their three most prized possessions – Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield.

And then they will be in line for one of the top picks in next June’s draft, the reward for being awful in 2018.

The Royals will continue to be bad for the foreseeable future. But perhaps the worst has passed. The youth movement will at least be entertaining to watch.

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KC should get radical with roster moves https://toddfertigwrites.com/kc-should-get-radical-with-roster-moves/ Fri, 24 Aug 2018 01:21:59 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1091 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on July 21, 2018 – you can read it here. Most casual fans have long-since ceased paying attention to the Royals. But those who hang in there this season may see a shot at history.

Only two teams since 1961 have finished a season with a winning percentage below .300. Amazingly, that number could double this season as the Royals and the Baltimore Orioles are neck-and-neck in terms of futility.

The Royals spent the All-Star break sitting on a .284 winning percentage, slightly worse than Baltimore’s .289. That puts them on pace to finish the seasons with a 46-116 record. If they do so, they’ll avoid the ignominious claim to the worst team ever. The 1962 New York Mets finished 40-120 (.250). The 2003 Detroit Tigers were also slightly worse than this year’s Royals, coming in at 43-119 (.265).

The record is far from safe, however. Kansas City traded two of its best players in June, and subsequently went 2-11 in July prior to the All-Star break. They’re now poised to deal Mike Moustakas and possibly others. They may turn entirely to playing rookies and unproven prospects. As bad as they’ve been, they could conceivably get worse.

They are comfortably on pace to eclipse the worst record in team history. The 2005 Royals went 56-106, finishing dead last in the majors, the only time the Royals have ever done so. Consider, this team could be 10 games worse than the worst in franchise history.

Digging a bit deeper, you see that no part of this team is good. At the break, the Royals had scored the fewest runs in baseball, while surrendering the most. Only one team in history allowed more than 2.0 runs than they scored per game – the 2003 Tigers run differential was 2.08. They 2018 Royals entered the break with a 2.03 run differential.

Finishing in last place isn’t all bad, of course. It earns you the first pick in the amateur draft the following year. But hopefully that isn’t the only thing the Royals have left to gain in 2018. They muddled along playing a set of veterans the first half of the year, and all it got them was historically bad. It’s time to ditch the veterans, starting with Moustakas, who is on the last months of his contract, and be daring with this rebuild. They need to make some bold moves and some tough decisions.

Bold moves:

The Royals could plod along the rest of the season playing the same players they’ve been playing, or they could get radical. Here are some aggressive moves to accelerate the rebuild:

Release Jason Hammel if he can’t be traded. By moving Hammel to the bullpen, they are making a last ditch attempt to restore at least some of his value. A contender in need of bullpen help might take a chance on him. But he has zero value left as a starter. If he can’t be traded, he should be released so his innings can be given to a prospect.

Pitch anyone not named Ian Kennedy. The Royals should pitch Kennedy only to provide rest to the younger members of the staff. With two years and $33 million left on his deal, the Royals won’t release him. The radical move would be to do so. But at least the Royals could devote his innings to someone who will be around when the team is good again.

Trade or release Paulo Orlando. If the Royals were a contender, the 32-year-old Orlando would provide some valuable depth. But since they aren’t, he’s just taking playing time away from someone a decade younger.

Trade or release Lucas Duda. (See Paulo Orlando.)

Give most of Alex Gordon’s playing time to someone else. According to the metrics, Gordon still has value. But he’s painful to watch at the plate, and isn’t tradable due to his contract. Once Jorge Soler or some other rookie is ready to get playing time, Gordon shouldn’t block them. Hard as it is to sit someone making $20 million, it should be done for the benefit of outfielders of the future.

Release Alcides Escobar. No one else will take him off our hands, but the future is now for Adalberto Mondesi.

Tough decisions:

The biggest question facing the Royals is whether they should trade three players – Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield – who are under contract for several more years.

The pros and cons are one in the same when it comes to trading Merrifield. He is 29 years old, with four years left on his bargain-basement contract. With his ability to play numerous positions, Merrifield holds tons of value. He could still be around when the rebuild bears fruit, but he would be well into his 30s.

The case for trading Duffy: Duffy is 29, with three years left on his contract, making $15 million each season. Since the Royals probably won’t be competitive before the deal runs out, they could try to get what they can and devote the money to the rebuild. While he wants to be a leader of a rebuild, he’s not the steady figure needed for that role.

The case for keeping Duffy: He runs hot and cold. When he’s off, he’s still better than anyone else the Royals have, but when he’s on, he’s one of the best lefties in the game. The Royals have few prospects ready to start in the big leagues. He gives a bad team a chance to win every fifth day.

The case for trading Perez: Perez is 28 and it appears his skills are deteriorating. Time is not kind to catchers, and Salvy probably doesn’t have the bat to merit moving to another position.

The case for trading Perez: He’s a fan favorite and borderline Hall of Famer. Developing young pitchers is tough, and having a great handler behind the plate would really help. His infectious spirit can help carry the team through the rebuild.

With nothing to gain but the first pick in the 2019 draft, losses aren’t a bad thing moving forward. Much as it would hurt to be known as the worst team in history, the Royals need to make losing count.

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A player-by-player breakdown of the Royals at their halfway point https://toddfertigwrites.com/a-player-by-player-breakdown-of-the-royals-at-their-halfway-point/ Tue, 21 Aug 2018 02:09:31 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1078 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 30, 2018 – you can read it here. Friday’s game was the Royals’ 81st of the season. Exactly one half of the campaign was in the books following that game. One might argue that the only numbers that matter are the number of wins and losses recorded thus far.

But to anyone who grew up studying the back of baseball cards, there are lots of numbers that matter. Championships aren’t the only thing that capture the imagination and make baseball a beautiful thing to study.

Batting averages, home runs, ERA and strikeouts, and less traditional measures such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) go down in the record books and make some players into legends, and others just faces in the crowd.

The halfway point of a season is the most logical point, as well as the easiest mathematically, to evaluate how things are going. Obviously, things aren’t going well in Kansas City. But a review of individual statistics may provide some glimmer of hope, or at least something other than wins and losses to obsess over.

2018 Projected Team Leaders at the Halfway Point:

Hits: Whit Merrifield, 170; Home Runs: Mike Moustakas, 30; RBI: Mike Moustakas, 100; Stolen Bases: Whit Merrifield, 32; Wins: Jakob Junis, 10; Saves: Kelvin Herrera, 14; Strikeouts: Jakob Junis 180

Mike Moustakas: Of all their current players, the Royals are most desperate to trade Moose, so a good first half was critical to his market value. He started out hot, as if to prove everyone wrong who passed over him in free agency. With 8 home runs in April, it looked like he might threaten the team record of 38, which he established in 2017.

But a cool couple of months have clouded Moustakas’ prospects considerably. He completed the first half with 15 home runs, and probably won’t finish out the season in Kansas City, so last year’s record is safe. His 134 career home runs place him eighth on the Royals all time list, and just 10 more would move him past John Mayberry into seventh. (One note for Moustakas to consider after this season: were he to return to Kansas City as a free agent, just 64 more homers in a Royals uniform would move him to second place on the team’s list.)

Salvador Perez: The Royals entered the season promising to give the big catcher more days off from behind the plate. Before they could enact that plan, however, Perez missed a month with a knee injury. The Royals did play him 10 times at designated hitter and once at first base. So they have made some effort to rest him. His 11 homers in 60 games looks good, but his other numbers are down from previous years. His string of five straight all-star games is in jeopardy.

Whit Merifield: His 4 home runs look paltry compared to the 19 he belted last season. However, his 30 walks in the first half already top the 29 he drew last year. And his 16 stolen bases have him on pace to surpass the 34 bags he swiped to lead the American League last year. He is currently in third place in the league in that category.

Jorge Soler, Jorge Bonifacio and Cheslor Cuthbert: Manager Ned Yost swore he would make sure Soler, Bonifacio and Cuthbert each get at least 500 at bats this season. It seemed imperative to the rebuild that the team find out what it has in these three players.

This isn’t going to happen. First Bonifacio was suspended for half the season, and has just returned. Then Cuthbert sustained a back injury in mid-May and has missed more than a month. He’s batted just 103 times thus far, with dismal returns. Soler batted 223 times before breaking a bone in his foot. The good news is that he was tapping into his infinite potential before the injury, and hopes to return soon.

Lucas Duda: The big first baseman smashed 30 home runs last year, so the Royals signed him, mostly hoping to trade him midseason. Approaching that home run total again would have been nice. No such luck. He sits on just 5, and probably has little trade value, if any.

Danny Duffy: The supposed “ace” of the Royals pitching staff was an enormous disappointment the first two months of the season. For the past month, he’s been solid (and at times spectacular), and with a 4-7 record so far, he may still reach double digits in victories, a feat he’s only achieved once. He’s on pace to set career highs for starts and innings.

Jakob Junis: With a 5-9 record currently, Junis still has a chance to reach double-digit wins. Doing so would top the 9 wins he tallied his rookie year. But in direct contrast to Duffy, Junis started the season brilliantly and has since fallen apart. Junis, Ian Kennedy (1-8) and Jason Hammel (2-9) might each threaten the season record of 19 losses by a Royals pitcher.

Kelvin Herrera: Although he was traded well before the halfway point of the season, Herrera is essentially guaranteed to lead the team in saves. He had 14 when he was dealt, and no other Royal has more than 2.

Though he’s still only 28 years old, Herrera is third in most games pitched by a Royal. He spent very little time as the team’s closer, but departed Kansas City just one save away from fourth place on the team’s all-time saves list.

Royals fans can’t forget 2018 soon enough. But the numbers posted by individuals make up a larger story of careers and statistics are added to record books. Even in the worst of seasons, they are part of what makes baseball a wonderful game.

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Which current players will KC keep as foundation for youth movement? https://toddfertigwrites.com/which-current-players-will-kc-keep-as-foundation-for-youth-movement/ Tue, 21 Aug 2018 01:52:25 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1073 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 16, 2018 – you can read it here.

For the past several months, discouraged yet loyal Royals fans have set their sights on 2021 as the year the Royals will again be competitive.

While that means a long, bleak wait, it isn’t unusual in today’s game. The league has embraced the philosophy of building in cycles. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are two recent examples of clubs that tolerated stretches of extreme failure in order to allow a wave of talent to matriculate to the major leagues on a schedule.

So expecting fans to accept a couple of rotten seasons on faith isn’t out of the ordinary. While Royals’ team officials may not specify the 2021 deadline, they practically shouted that expectation from on high on June 4, when they drafted an overwhelming number of college players. With two to three years being a natural period of development for most college draftees, sights are set squarely on 2021. That season was already the ETA for a number of top prospects currently in the Royals’ lowest levels of the farm system.

When looking at minor league player development, it’s no longer meaningful to pay attention to age. It’s all about service time and player control. When a player reaches the big leagues, he is generally under team control for five years. Thus a wave of talent reaching the big leagues in 2021 could potentially stay in tact until 2026.

So, a logical question would be, who on the current Royals team will be available in 2021 to serve as the established veterans, the foundation for the youth movement to build upon?

Perhaps the key Royal moving forward is catcher Salvador Perez. His exuberance and toughness make him a fan favorite one can hardly foresee being traded. He may be the one player crucial to maintaining fan loyalty through the bleak years. His contract runs through 2021, when he will be 31. Unfortunately, catchers don’t age well. Unlike catching greats like Joe Mauer or Johnny Bench, a move to first base isn’t a great option for Perez. He’s just not quite good enough with the bat. The best-case scenario would be for Perez to remain one of the top defensive catchers well into the next decade. But time is particularly cruel to catchers. Keeping Perez or trading him while he has value is one of the toughest decisions facing the Kansas City front office.

Dealing veterans in the last year of their contracts before the trade deadline is key to acquiring prospects, and the Royals collected a few inexpensive trading chips in the offseason for just that purpose. Jon Jay was the first short-timer to be dealt, and several others must be swapped before July 31. Kelvin Herrera, Jason Hammel, Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda will be shopped extensively, because their contracts are up. Drew Butera might also fetch something on the market. Unfortunately Alcides Escobar probably holds zero value, but certainly the Royals anticipated that when they resigned him for this season. Blaine Boyer also won’t bring any value.

Of those on the roster who have one or two years remaining after 2018, the contracts of Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon make them untradeable. The Royals will just have to build around them as veteran clubhouse leaders who won’t be around in 2021. Ryan Goins, Abraham Almonte and Justin Grimm are nothing more than placeholders. Nate Karns is the one player whose contract is up in 2020 who might be a part of the youth movement.

That makes 13 2018 Royals who most certainly will be gone come 2021. While that seems like the core of the roster, there are actually quite a few players in Kansas City now who could constitute a talented foundation for the future.

The Royals could have Whit Merrifield (signed through 2022) and Hunter Dozier (2023) to fill spots in the infield, as well as Cheslor Cuthbert (2021), who has yet to prove his worth. Still awaiting his shot at shortstop is Adalberto Mondesi, who is still just 22 years old and under team control through 2023. A versatile backup could be Ramon Torres, also a Royal through 2023.

Outfield options in 2021 look promising with Jorge Soler (signed through 2021) and Jorge Bonifacio (2022). Backups could include Paolo Orlando and Billy Burns (both signed through 2021) who have logged a lot of time as emergency call-ups from Triple-A Omaha. That group is not good enough, obviously, but could prove supportive to new additions.

Essential to building a winner is pitching. Long the Royals’ biggest failure, the team must assemble a premier starting rotation. Hammel and Kennedy will be gone, but the prospects are actually encouraging looking forward.

The sudden emergence of rookie Brad Keller gives the Royals a small collection of starters to build around. Jakob Junis has been the Royals best starter for more than a year now, and he’s under contract through 2023. Eric Skoglund has flashed signs of potential, and he’s also a Royal through 2023.

Duffy, signed through 2021, wants to be a Royal for life. It may prove preferable, however, to deal him sooner rather than later and bank on younger starters. If some solid starters can be produced from the recent draft, they might supplement some combination of Duffy, Keller, Junis and Skoglund for a quality rotation well beyond 2021.

Any member of that group of starters might also wind up reinforcing a bullpen with many youthful candidates. Bryan Flynn (under contract through 2021), Burch Smith (2023), Kevin McCarthy (2023) and rookies Tim Hill and Scott Barlow are already earning their stripes in the majors and should form a solid core for years to come.

Losing a lot of games the next couple of years will be hard to accept for a fan base whose expectations suddenly went through the roof in 2014. But by keeping an eye on 2021, optimism isn’t impossible. The current Royals signed through that season won’t be good enough on their own. A new wave of talent must arrive, on time and equal to its billing. But if you squint, you can see the beginnings of a return to competitiveness on the horizon.

 

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