Wilmington – Todd Fertig Writes http://toddfertigwrites.com Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:22:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 145297769 Royals Rundown: KC needs key prospects to make progress http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-rundown-kc-needs-key-prospects-to-make-progress/ Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:22:00 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1524 The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 21 – you can read it by clicking here.

The Kansas City Royals need help. As they limp toward 100 losses, the deficiencies of the big league club are on full display.

With new ownership on the horizon, the direction of the team remains to be determined. There is but a small core with the big league club at this moment that appears to be set – Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier and Brad Keller. Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifield could be long term fixtures, or they could be trade commodities. That’s about it. Everything else seems to be unknown.

But what the Royals do have is a rapidly improving farm system that in just the last couple of weeks claimed multiple minor league championships. These titles aren’t meaningless to the franchise. In the years prior to their 2015 championship, the Royals placed a lot of emphasis on bringing up a wave of talent that won at each level as it progressed through the minors.

A new wave of talent just claimed championships in two A-ball leagues, a rookie-ball league, and in the Dominican developmental level.

The franchise is winning at the developmental level, and it is suddenly stocked with pitching. The Royals went all in on college pitching in the 2018 draft, and that investment may start paying off sooner, and with greater returns, than even the Royals could have hoped.

One thing is certain, however, about baseball prospects: few of them pan out. The Royals know as well as anyone that turning pitching prospects into productive big leaguers is not easily accomplished. The raft of studs on the farm today may not turn into a good pitching staff in the future. But for now, the Royals have an enviable collection of talent, and almost all of it came via the 2018 draft.

Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar progressed to Double-A midseason and therefore were not part of the minor league playoff hunt. But their performance this season validated the Royals’ use of first round draft choices on them in 2018. Singer and Kowar, former teammates at the University of Florida, split the season between High A Wilmington and Double A Northwest Arkansas. Singer posted a 12-5 record and a 2.85 ERA between the two stops, while Kowar went 7-10 with a 3.52 ERA.

Joining them at the top of prospect lists are fellow 2018 draftees Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic. The four-headed monster might start next season at Double-A, and an extreme optimist could envision it as four-fifths of the Royals starting rotation in the very near future. Lynch went 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA at Wilmington and is rated the eighth best left-handed pitcher in the minors. Bubic went 11-5 with a 2.23 ERA between the two A-ball clubs and saw his stock skyrocket.

Casual followers of minor league prospects should keep their eyes trained on this foursome. But that’s just the beginning. The A-ball teams were particularly flush with pitchers who excelled in 2019. Integral to Wilmington’s championship were two more 2018 draft picks, Jonathan Bowlan and Austin Cox. Bowlan went 11-5 with a 3.14 ERA between the A-ball teams, including a no-hitter, while Cox also split the season between the A-ball clubs, going 8-6 with a 2.76 ERA.

Guiding Lexington to its title were Carlos Hernandez, who rebounded from injuries to go 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA, and 2018 picks Zach Haake and Jon Heasley.

As encouraged as fans should be about the pitching prospects the Royals have collected, they should be just that concerned about the position prospects they were heralding a year ago. Wilmington was a deathtrap for hitters in 2019, snaring several hot prospects in disastrous seasons. 2017 first round pick Nick Pratto and second round pick M.J. Melendez crashed upon their promotion to Wilmington. Pratto finished with a .191 average and just nine homers in his sophomore season, while Melendez was even worse, hitting .163 with nine homers. Shockingly, slugging outfielder Seuly Matias was even worse in his debut at Wilmington. After crushing 31 homers in just 94 games in Lexington last year, Matias managed just a .148 average with four homers in 57 games before being shut down with injuries.

The Royals preached patience and calm with these three, but the organization will have to decide whether to promote them to Double-A despite their failures or send them back to the hitters hell of Wilmington.

Should first baseman Pratto, catcher Melendez and outfielder Matias rediscover their potential, they form a nice trio to team with 2019 first round pick shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. Evaluations of Witt’s talent are through the roof, but he scuffled a bit in his debut in the rookie leagues, hitting just .262 with one homer in 37 games. The Royals can’t afford for many of these top draft choices to fail.

The organization’s fourth rated prospect, outfielder Khalil Lee had a decent year at Double-A, hitting .264 with eight homers and an eye-popping 53 stolen bases. The 21-year-old will be brought along slowly, but is the major league club’s best hope to improve its lackluster outfield.

Three other athletic outfielders are making their way through the lower ranks. Kyle Isbel battled injuries and put up lackluster numbers similar to the others trapped in the Wilmington black hole. Michael Gigliotti returned from knee surgery to keep his name in the prospect ring. And forcing his way into the conversation was Brewer Hicklen. A bit of a late bloomer, the 23-year-old Hicklen had perhaps the best season of any position prospect in the Royals system, batting .263 with 14 homers and 39 stolen bases for Wilmington.

These hitting prospects are light years away from the major leagues and cannot afford to scuffle the way they did in 2019. With such a drastic upgrade in their stable of pitchers, the Royals now desperately need to upgrade the talent around the diamond. They won multiple minor league championships almost entirely upon strength on the mound.

Witt may well develop into a star. But Kansas City needs its other prospects to get things going with the bat. Continued failure by Pratto, Melendez and Matias would be disastrous. And by means of the draft, trades and international signings, the club needs to add more top positional talent that doesn’t stall out in the minors.

 

 

 

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Royals GM Dayton Moore planting the seeds for a burgeoning farm system http://toddfertigwrites.com/royals-gm-dayton-moore-planting-the-seeds-for-a-burgeoning-farm-system/ Fri, 24 Aug 2018 01:42:02 +0000 http://toddfertigwrites.com/?p=1095 The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on August 4, 2018 – you can read it here.

On June 3, the Royals had a record of 13-36, far and away worst in baseball. The 2018 season was already a lost cause. And to make matters even worse, their farm system was considered to be one of the weakest in the game as well. The team was horrible, and there was little hope in sight.

But when the team stumbled out of the gate and quickly ruined the year, it allowed the team to focus on talent acquisition, and to leverage the few assets it possessed.

General Manager Dayton Moore’s handling of the roster the past two years has been roundly scrutinized. But this summer, he leaped at a chance to improve the pipeline considerably.

First, the Royals utilized compensation picks in the amateur draft, which kicked off on June 4, to quickly inject an infusion of new talent.

The Royals were already pinning their hopes on a collection of youngsters in A-ball – the Lexington and Wilmington clubs – considered the next “wave” of talent comparable to when Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura matriculated up through the system. On June 4, they doubled down on that wave by drafting a passel of college pitchers.

The decision to put so many eggs in this one basket was questioned by some. But by doing so, they essentially doubled the size of the wave. The farm system lacked quality arms, and they Royals added several who could move up quickly, particularly Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic.

Then Moore kicked into action a plan he’d initiated during the winter.

Rather than just hand over positions in the major leagues to unproven rookies, Moore had chosen to stock up on cheap veterans under one-year contracts, hoping to flip them like one would a fixer-upper. While it didn’t work with each of his projects, Moore was able to sign and flip Jon Jay and Mike Moustakas for pennies on the dollar.

The Royals paid Jay about $1.2 million for a couple months of work, then on June 6, acquired a high-ceiling 18-year-old project named Elvis Luciano, plus a minor league pitcher with some potential in Gabe Speier.

On July 27, just before the trade deadline, Moore sent Moustakas to the Milwaukee Brewers for top prospect Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez, both of whom had seen some action in the majors. Thus the Royals invested a mere $3 million in salary to Moustakas to acquire a top outfield candidate and major-league caliber arm.

Between those deals, the Royals flipped reliever Kelvin Herrera, whose contract was about to expire, for two developing minor leaguers in Blake Perkins and Kelvin Gutierrez, plus another young project in 17-year-old pitcher Yohanse Morel.

Beating the bushes even further, Moore picked up a versatile and speedy switch hitter of waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in Rosell Herrera. Then he traded a low-level prospect for former first round draft pick Brian Goodwin. The two joined the Royals and immediately paid dividends.

And just like that, Moore had dramatically restocked the empty cupboard that was the Royals farm system, and added some new blood to the big league team to boot.

Of the Royals top 19 prospects rated by MLB.com, nine were not in the Royals’ system prior to June 4. The wave at the lower levels of the system that was started in 2017 gained strength with college pitchers and college outfielder Kyle Isbel. The mid-level minors was fortified with Perkins, Gutierrez and Speier. Furthermore, Kansas City took a flier on a couple of “lottery tickets” in Luciano and Morel.

Talent wasn’t just injected into the minors. Judging by the recent play of Phillips, Rosell Herrera and Goodwin, help is already arriving in Kansas City.

Next up, the Royals will try to get something – anything – for short-timers Jason Hammel and Lucas Duda via deals that are permitted past the trade deadline. Over the winter, they might listen to offers for their three most prized possessions – Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield.

And then they will be in line for one of the top picks in next June’s draft, the reward for being awful in 2018.

The Royals will continue to be bad for the foreseeable future. But perhaps the worst has passed. The youth movement will at least be entertaining to watch.

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