The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on April 1, 2018 – see it here
Call it the rebuild that wasn’t.
This was supposed to be the burn-it-to-the-ground-and-start-over kind of summer where the Kansas City Royals played only homegrown players making minimal salaries. Give them a chance to sink or swim at the big league level. Lose 90 to 100 games, earn high draft picks and start completely over.
That’s what we all expected from the summer of 2018.
That was before the Royals threw us a curveball on Feb. 28. That was the day the team signed Lucas Duda and ended anticipation that the Royals would tank the season — a la half of the NBA.
Duda, a solid but unspectacular veteran, wouldn’t make a ton of difference in the win-loss column. So … why sign him? Why bring on a 32-year-old first baseman to effectively block not just top prospect Hunter Dozier, but also Ryan O’Hearn and Frank Schwindel, each of whom appeared ready to try his chops at the big league level?
From that moment forward, we have never quite figured out what the Royals are up to, as they signed outfielder John Jay, brought back Mike Moustakas on the cheap, and acquired veteran relievers, as well as retaining Alcides Escobar.
Were they tanking? Were they merely accumulating tradable pieces for later? Or were they seriously trying to compete for the playoffs by employing castoffs and reclamation projects?
In the college basketball world, teams like KU don’t rebuild — they reload. They bid farewell to one set of superstars and welcome another, never missing a beat or failing to win a conference title.
The Royals aren’t reloading, that’s for sure. Not with the likes of Duda and Jay, not exactly superstars.
So what is the right word to describe what they are up to? Renewing? Repurposing? Reinvigorating?
One thing the Royals seem to do under Dayton Moore is find bargains in areas undervalued by other teams. When other teams were spending a fortune for home run hitters, the Royals found speed and defense at bargain prices. When others loaded up on high-priced starting pitchers, the Royals built a game-changing bullpen for pennies on the dollar. When other teams banked on high-priced individuals, the Royals stressed team chemistry.
Perhaps the Royals of 2018 are just doing what they do best — investing in undervalued commodities.
Or perhaps the Royals truly believe, as Moore recently stated, that tanking is not conducive to building a long-term culture of winning. He said he believes the best way to rebuild for the future is to never stop trying to win today.
Or perhaps the Royals are concerned that, with negotiations for a new TV contract ongoing, they must continue to play at a level attractive to viewers.
Who knows? With such an unclear picture of what the team is really up to, it may be difficult to gauge success or failure in 2018. A successfully tanked 2018 would be measured in losses. Lose more than 90 games, good job. Lose enough to earn the first pick in the subsequent draft of amateur players, great job! A successful “rebuilding” year would find several young players settling into starting roles.
Since the Royals aren’t really going either of those routes, what would a successful 2018 look like?
First off, this team may be a little better than the experts suppose. Some analytical forecasts have this Royals team as the worst in the game. But the Royals always defy preseason metrics and predictions, and may do so again this season. For one thing, with other teams in full tank mode, the Royals may pick up wins against teams who are truly trying to lose.
It’s not exactly realistic to ponder “what if everything goes right?” Not with the team’s best player — Salvador Perez — out for 4-6 weeks having injured himself carrying luggage. The fates don’t appear to be on their side. But this team might have enough starting pitching and veteran presence to hang around.
The greatest danger would be for the Royals to be just on the cusp of a wild-card chase and decide not to deal tradable pieces. They have the opportunity, with commodities like Moustakas, Duda, Jay and a few veteran relievers, to come to the aid of teams truly in contention, thus bolster their flagging minor league system.
The best-case scenario would probably be as follows:
The tradable veterans have lights-out first halves of the season. Other teams in contention suffer injuries, raising the stock of the Royals commodities. Prospects in the minors such as Dozier, O’Hearn and Adalberto Mondesi have such success that they are ready to step into the big league lineup by mid-season. The team wins enough to retain the competitive culture, but loses enough to earn a high pick in next year’s amateur draft.
How about 75-87? A rebuild? A reload? A reinvention?
Whatever you want to call it, it’s baseball in Kansas City, and that’s always a good thing. Even if we don’t know what they’re doing.