The following article was published in the Topeka Capital-Journal on June 2, 2018 – you can read it here.
With hardly any of the fanfare of the annual NFL and NBA drafts, the major league baseball draft, which will begin Monday, will have a long lasting affect on the fortunes of the Royals, a franchise desperate for an infusion of new talent.
Not only will a lot of young amateurs become rich men tomorrow, but the futures of franchises will be largely determined by the selections made. The baseball draft is much more of a crapshoot than are the drafts of the other major sports. A surprisingly small percentage of the young players drafted will ever reach the major leagues, much less make a significant impact on the franchises that invested millions of dollars in them.
With a farm system widely viewed as the worst in baseball, the Royals need to build upon the work they did in the draft a year ago. Fans have their hopes pinned on a crop of 2017 draftees who are currently honing their skills at the A-ball level. The Royals selected high school first baseman Nick Pratto in the first round, then added a couple of other highly thought-of prospects. Based on rankings from this spring, the Royals added their second, third and fourth best prospects in the most recent draft.
They have an excellent opportunity in 2018 to stockpile even more talent. Thanks to compensatory picks awarded for the loss of free agents, the Royals possess four of the top 40 picks in this draft.
It won’t be for several years, however, before we know if the Royals drafted well or not.
Even taking into account slow development, generally you expect a high round draft pick taken out of college to reach the majors in 2 to 3 years, and one from the high school ranks pick to reach within about 5 years. In each case, that puts the player arriving at the big league level at about 23 years of age.
Using this criteria, high school players drafted between 2008 and 2013, and college players drafted between 2010 and 2015 should make up at least a portion of the Royals roster. Some advance a little quicker, some develop a little slower.
With this in mind, the Royals current problems can be blamed in large part upon unproductive drafting in the first round the past several years.
Considering that baseball drafting is very hit and miss, the Royals were considerably effective with their top picks in the 2000s, which led directly to their success in 2014 and 2015. Zach Greinke (drafted in 2002 and flipped for key pieces in 2010), Billy Butler (2004), Alex Gordon (2005), Luke Hochevar (2006), Mike Moustakas (2007) and Eric Hosmer (2008) were all taken while the Royals drafted in enviably high positions each year, due to their dreadful performance at the big league level.
Sadly, time marches on, and the Royals needed to continue their run of success in the first round of the draft to backfill as those players aged and their big league contracts ran out. For a variety of reasons, that hasn’t happened.
Imagine if, in the five years following the drafting of Hosmer in 2008, the Royals had used first round draft picks on two front-line starting pitchers, a legitimate shortstop, third baseman and centerfielder. Those players would all be relatively new to the big leagues and under club control for the next several years. With pieces like that in place, the current rebuild would be more like a reload.
Unfortunately the players described above are not to be found in Kansas City.
In 2009, the Royals drafted Washburn Rural’s own Aaron Crow, a college pitcher who contributed to the Royals rebuild, but was derailed by injuries. In 2010, they took college shortstop Christian Colon, who was with the Royals during their World Series runs, but contributed little and is now unwanted by any team.
Then the really bad luck started. In 2011, the Royals felt compelled to draft Bubba Starling a local stud with limited baseball exposure. In 2012, they selected a coveted college pitcher named Kyle Zimmer. Injuries and poor performance have knocked these two completely off course, and it’s doubtful either will ever produce anything.
In 2013, the Royals drafted Hunter Dozier, who may still contribute something to the big league club, but certainly hasn’t set any worlds on fire.
If you want to make yourself ill, take a few minutes to look over the list of players drafted shortly AFTER the Royals made those selections. You’ll find names like Mike Trout, Chris Sale, Francisco Lindor and George Springer.
The Royals did do one thing for which they deserve credit: they drafted a couple of pitchers in 2013 and 2014 that they traded for key pieces in their World Series run. Pitchers being the commodity that they are, the Royals wisely dealt Sean Manaea and Brandon Finnegan to ensure a championship.
The bad luck continued in 2015 when the Royals used two first round picks on high school pitchers who have thus far been huge disappointments. In 2016, the Royals did not have a first round selection, having forfeited it to sign free agent Ian Kennedy.
So it’s easy to see why the top picks from 2017, and those who will be drafted this week, are so crucial to the Royals rebuild.
Now obviously, just as not all first round picks are sure-fire stars, first rounders aren’t the only ones who make it to the majors. Fortunately, the current Royals include some diamonds plucked from the rough, namely Danny Duffy and Eric Skoglund (3rd round), Jason Adam (5th round), Whit Merrifield (9th round), Kevin McCarthy (16th round), Jakob Junis (29th round) and Tim Hill (32nd round). The Royals need to continue to scour solid big leaguers from the lower rounds. But it’s in the first round they must turn the tide.
The Royals will make some young men very wealthy Monday. Will those draft picks restore the fortunes of the Royals in turn? Kansas City is the only team with four picks in the first round. Draft history shows that not all four of those picks will reach the major leagues, much less turn into stars. But the addition of several quality prospects, combined with the solid class taken in 2017, could go a long ways toward shaping a brighter future for the franchise.