The following article appeared in the Topeka Capital-Journal on Sept. 21 – you can read it by clicking here.
The Kansas City Royals need help. As they limp toward 100 losses, the deficiencies of the big league club are on full display.
With new ownership on the horizon, the direction of the team remains to be determined. There is but a small core with the big league club at this moment that appears to be set – Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier and Brad Keller. Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifield could be long term fixtures, or they could be trade commodities. That’s about it. Everything else seems to be unknown.
But what the Royals do have is a rapidly improving farm system that in just the last couple of weeks claimed multiple minor league championships. These titles aren’t meaningless to the franchise. In the years prior to their 2015 championship, the Royals placed a lot of emphasis on bringing up a wave of talent that won at each level as it progressed through the minors.
A new wave of talent just claimed championships in two A-ball leagues, a rookie-ball league, and in the Dominican developmental level.
The franchise is winning at the developmental level, and it is suddenly stocked with pitching. The Royals went all in on college pitching in the 2018 draft, and that investment may start paying off sooner, and with greater returns, than even the Royals could have hoped.
One thing is certain, however, about baseball prospects: few of them pan out. The Royals know as well as anyone that turning pitching prospects into productive big leaguers is not easily accomplished. The raft of studs on the farm today may not turn into a good pitching staff in the future. But for now, the Royals have an enviable collection of talent, and almost all of it came via the 2018 draft.
Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar progressed to Double-A midseason and therefore were not part of the minor league playoff hunt. But their performance this season validated the Royals’ use of first round draft choices on them in 2018. Singer and Kowar, former teammates at the University of Florida, split the season between High A Wilmington and Double A Northwest Arkansas. Singer posted a 12-5 record and a 2.85 ERA between the two stops, while Kowar went 7-10 with a 3.52 ERA.
Joining them at the top of prospect lists are fellow 2018 draftees Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic. The four-headed monster might start next season at Double-A, and an extreme optimist could envision it as four-fifths of the Royals starting rotation in the very near future. Lynch went 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA at Wilmington and is rated the eighth best left-handed pitcher in the minors. Bubic went 11-5 with a 2.23 ERA between the two A-ball clubs and saw his stock skyrocket.
Casual followers of minor league prospects should keep their eyes trained on this foursome. But that’s just the beginning. The A-ball teams were particularly flush with pitchers who excelled in 2019. Integral to Wilmington’s championship were two more 2018 draft picks, Jonathan Bowlan and Austin Cox. Bowlan went 11-5 with a 3.14 ERA between the A-ball teams, including a no-hitter, while Cox also split the season between the A-ball clubs, going 8-6 with a 2.76 ERA.
Guiding Lexington to its title were Carlos Hernandez, who rebounded from injuries to go 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA, and 2018 picks Zach Haake and Jon Heasley.
As encouraged as fans should be about the pitching prospects the Royals have collected, they should be just that concerned about the position prospects they were heralding a year ago. Wilmington was a deathtrap for hitters in 2019, snaring several hot prospects in disastrous seasons. 2017 first round pick Nick Pratto and second round pick M.J. Melendez crashed upon their promotion to Wilmington. Pratto finished with a .191 average and just nine homers in his sophomore season, while Melendez was even worse, hitting .163 with nine homers. Shockingly, slugging outfielder Seuly Matias was even worse in his debut at Wilmington. After crushing 31 homers in just 94 games in Lexington last year, Matias managed just a .148 average with four homers in 57 games before being shut down with injuries.
The Royals preached patience and calm with these three, but the organization will have to decide whether to promote them to Double-A despite their failures or send them back to the hitters hell of Wilmington.
Should first baseman Pratto, catcher Melendez and outfielder Matias rediscover their potential, they form a nice trio to team with 2019 first round pick shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. Evaluations of Witt’s talent are through the roof, but he scuffled a bit in his debut in the rookie leagues, hitting just .262 with one homer in 37 games. The Royals can’t afford for many of these top draft choices to fail.
The organization’s fourth rated prospect, outfielder Khalil Lee had a decent year at Double-A, hitting .264 with eight homers and an eye-popping 53 stolen bases. The 21-year-old will be brought along slowly, but is the major league club’s best hope to improve its lackluster outfield.
Three other athletic outfielders are making their way through the lower ranks. Kyle Isbel battled injuries and put up lackluster numbers similar to the others trapped in the Wilmington black hole. Michael Gigliotti returned from knee surgery to keep his name in the prospect ring. And forcing his way into the conversation was Brewer Hicklen. A bit of a late bloomer, the 23-year-old Hicklen had perhaps the best season of any position prospect in the Royals system, batting .263 with 14 homers and 39 stolen bases for Wilmington.
These hitting prospects are light years away from the major leagues and cannot afford to scuffle the way they did in 2019. With such a drastic upgrade in their stable of pitchers, the Royals now desperately need to upgrade the talent around the diamond. They won multiple minor league championships almost entirely upon strength on the mound.
Witt may well develop into a star. But Kansas City needs its other prospects to get things going with the bat. Continued failure by Pratto, Melendez and Matias would be disastrous. And by means of the draft, trades and international signings, the club needs to add more top positional talent that doesn’t stall out in the minors.